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US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

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Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#71

Post by SantalBlush »

tristor wrote: post #40
SantalBlush wrote: post #3

The EU has a similar committee to the NBER, which identifies EU business cycles. They also do not use the colloquial "2 quarters of decline in GDP" definition, though at least 2 quarters of decline is often seen in those recessions that they do identify. [0] >Most of the recessions identified by the Committee’s procedures consist of two or more quarters of declining real GDP, but declining real GDP is not the only in…

I don't need someone "official" to tell me a recession is happening. It's rather self-evident for those who are observant. Thanks, though.

That's great, but I was specifically talking about recent discussions regarding the official definition. If you're not interested in that topic, then my comment wasn't for you.

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#72

Post by AnotherGoodName »

nostrademons wrote: post #49
importantbrian wrote: post #6

This is the weirdest "recession" I can remember. Business leaders are constantly talking about how challenging the economic environment is and the need for layoffs etc. Meanwhile most of the underlying indicators are actually positive. Growth is strong, employment is strong. Anecdotally we're still having trouble finding good candidates. It's almost like there is a class of business leaders who are just trying to wis…

The stock market, interest rates, and advertising spending are leading indicators, while unemployment is a lagging indicator. Business leaders know the financial structure of their company, and many of them know that they can't survive at 2% rates, let alone 5 or 10% rates. The gloom from business leaders is forward-looking. They're fine for now , while consumer spending holds up and they can run on old debt. But as…

>they manage as if a Fed pivot is coming

We can't argue this both ways. You can't argue that business leaders are acting as if the fed will pivot away from the current course when the parent is pointing out that they are all tightening in preparation for more to come.

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#73

Post by echelon »

nostrademons wrote: post #49
importantbrian wrote: post #6

This is the weirdest "recession" I can remember. Business leaders are constantly talking about how challenging the economic environment is and the need for layoffs etc. Meanwhile most of the underlying indicators are actually positive. Growth is strong, employment is strong. Anecdotally we're still having trouble finding good candidates. It's almost like there is a class of business leaders who are just trying to wis…

The stock market, interest rates, and advertising spending are leading indicators, while unemployment is a lagging indicator. Business leaders know the financial structure of their company, and many of them know that they can't survive at 2% rates, let alone 5 or 10% rates. The gloom from business leaders is forward-looking. They're fine for now , while consumer spending holds up and they can run on old debt. But as…

Easy enough to see which public companies have this debt, when their debt obligations are due, and what their historical expenses, revenue, and cash on hand are.

Could probably script this and build a report. I'm not going to do this (I'm working hard and can't afford to be nerd sniped), but please share if you build this. After buying your own positions, of course. :)

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#74

Post by treeman79 »

supergeek133 wrote: post #53
importantbrian wrote: post #6

This is the weirdest "recession" I can remember. Business leaders are constantly talking about how challenging the economic environment is and the need for layoffs etc. Meanwhile most of the underlying indicators are actually positive. Growth is strong, employment is strong. Anecdotally we're still having trouble finding good candidates. It's almost like there is a class of business leaders who are just trying to wis…

This is the broadest view of the economy growing. So there may be some business leaders who work in still growing industries who are trying to "wish the recession into existence" as you say.. But on the flipside you have things like housing taking a downturn (not just home prices, but actual housing construction) which negatively impacts all of their suppliers (HVAC equipment, lumber, contracting companies, etc etc).…

Be real fun when the strategic oil reserve runs out / stop draining it after November Election. Nothing was done to increase domestic supply. And OPEC has decided to tighten the screws on us.

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#75

Post by importantbrian »

supergeek133 wrote: post #53
importantbrian wrote: post #6

This is the weirdest "recession" I can remember. Business leaders are constantly talking about how challenging the economic environment is and the need for layoffs etc. Meanwhile most of the underlying indicators are actually positive. Growth is strong, employment is strong. Anecdotally we're still having trouble finding good candidates. It's almost like there is a class of business leaders who are just trying to wis…

This is the broadest view of the economy growing. So there may be some business leaders who work in still growing industries who are trying to "wish the recession into existence" as you say.. But on the flipside you have things like housing taking a downturn (not just home prices, but actual housing construction) which negatively impacts all of their suppliers (HVAC equipment, lumber, contracting companies, etc etc).…

This may just be a localized thing, but housing construction here is not slowing down. My in-laws own a construction business and they're the busiest they've ever been. Their biggest challenge is hiring and getting supplies.

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#76

Post by datadata »

bagels wrote: post #9
importantbrian wrote: post #6

This is the weirdest "recession" I can remember. Business leaders are constantly talking about how challenging the economic environment is and the need for layoffs etc. Meanwhile most of the underlying indicators are actually positive. Growth is strong, employment is strong. Anecdotally we're still having trouble finding good candidates. It's almost like there is a class of business leaders who are just trying to wis…

The fed said interest rates will keep being raised until unemployment rises.

I'm not sure why people continue to take what the fed says as being accurate predictions of the future. For example, they said in 2021 that they expected interest rates would be zero until 2024 [1]. They obviously have a lot of real power, but they must be understood to either be deceitful or incompetent given how wrong prior predictions have been.

[1] https://www.ft.com/content/3d7704d3-a312-4294-95bc-90233f469...

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#77

Post by Mikeb85 »

importantbrian wrote: post #6

This is the weirdest "recession" I can remember. Business leaders are constantly talking about how challenging the economic environment is and the need for layoffs etc. Meanwhile most of the underlying indicators are actually positive. Growth is strong, employment is strong. Anecdotally we're still having trouble finding good candidates. It's almost like there is a class of business leaders who are just trying to wis…

The recession is real (but probably won't materialize until we see the 4th quarter of this year's numbers). Lots of sectors are seeing reduced consumer spending, layoffs and of course interest rates rising reduces capital spending.

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#78

Post by itsoktocry »

importantbrian wrote: post #6

This is the weirdest "recession" I can remember. Business leaders are constantly talking about how challenging the economic environment is and the need for layoffs etc. Meanwhile most of the underlying indicators are actually positive. Growth is strong, employment is strong. Anecdotally we're still having trouble finding good candidates. It's almost like there is a class of business leaders who are just trying to wis…

>This is the weirdest "recession" I can remember. Business leaders are constantly talking about how challenging the economic environment is and the need for layoffs etc

I think people's sense of timescale is off. Business leaders are talking about things that we likely won't see for months.

This isn't rocket science; we have insane inflation, rising interest rates, a strong USD and tightening monetary policy around the globe. Where do you see the growth coming from? Have you considered that "things aren't that bad" might benefit one or the other party during the upcoming election?

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#79

Post by importantbrian »

mostly_harmless wrote: post #55
importantbrian wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did the fed actually say this? There were a bunch of investment bankers who did, and it seems like everyone else ran with the narrative. I haven't seen that the fed actually said it. I think all the fed cares about is bringing down inflation, but if the primary factors in inflation are supply related then unemployment doesn't have to go up for inflation to come down.

Yes, but not directly. If you listen to the last FOMC meeting, Powell mentions there will likely be significant weakening of the labor market and a rise of unemployment. As well as his famous "there will be pain" remarks. I don't think he directly said "he won't stop until" though.

Yeah, I mean maintaining full employment is one of the fed's mandates. It would be an insane thing for a fed chair to just come out and say. I assume he want's to keep his job, and pissing off the Senate isn't the way to go about that.

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#80

Post by roflyear »

CPLX wrote: post #34
glial wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is so strange and violates two of their three mandates - maximum employment and moderate interest rates.

So strange. It’s almost as if they’ve picked a side in the conflict between supporting labor or capital.

HN is capital not labor.
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