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US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

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Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#211

Post by seanmcdirmid »

jandrese wrote: post #202
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Unbelievably credulous predictions that the Chinese government is going to topple on its own in the next few months are just plain out of touch. Isn't that just a straw man? Most serious reporting on China are just predicting a substantial slow down in growth (or even recession), which is what is playing out right now. Chinese emigration rates, which were dropping for many years before, are actually growing again (…

You would think so, but the stories are being repeated a lot in the news: https://news.google.com/search?q=china%20government%20collap... https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=china+collapse A slowdown is inevitable. The "china miracle" was loads of debt fueled spending to pump the books, but they still have 1.4 billion people who are still near the bottom of the S curve for domestic consumption. Even the dubi…

You can always cherry pick sources (especially with google search!). But it is a logical fallacy to discount a serious WSJ or NYT report by quoting some unrelated Gorden Chang or EpochTimes article on the web (for example). That is effectively how the strawman logical fallacy works.

China has gone through stealth recessions before when I was living there (GDP growth on paper, but job growth and other indicators clearly in trouble on the ground). They might be going through one now, I'm not sure, but an official recession and housing bubble burst is really due (the latter being necessary for long term health, and even the former useful for getting rid of a lot of unproductive activities).

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#212

Post by aschearer »

Aunche wrote: post #107
mostly_harmless wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but not directly. If you listen to the last FOMC meeting, Powell mentions there will likely be significant weakening of the labor market and a rise of unemployment. As well as his famous "there will be pain" remarks. I don't think he directly said "he won't stop until" though.

Unlike smooth talking politicians, the Federal Reserve actually tries to be honest about the effects of their policies. This is something that should be applauded, not exploited as a means to get political capital.

I'm not sure why you think this is true. For month's Powell has been shifting the narrative. First it was under control, then it was a soft landing, now it's going to be a rough landing. What'll it be tomorrow?

I don't think they're being dishonest. I think they're constrained in how forthright they can be, lest they trigger a market reaction.

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#213

Post by idiotsecant »

vikingerik wrote: post #199
com2kid wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The inflation of 2022 is also largely an illusion - it's really just that a few percentage points of what should have been normal inflation in 2020 and first-half 2021 was time-shifted into 2022. Food prices are up 48% at the nations second largest grocery chain. Rent prices are now through the roof, 20-30% year over year increases are common in major cities. Things are more expensive, full stop, and it isn't just…

That's exactly what I'm talking about. Don't look at year-over-year numbers, you're falling for the illusion. A rent jump of 20% for 2022 is because rents were artificially suppressed in 2020 and 2021. The right comparison is to look at 2022 compared to 2019 and see if it looks out of line for a three-year period. A few things are, but most aren't. Also, citing one grocery chain is a cherry-picked outlier. Cite them…

This line of thought doesn't stand up to scrutiny when you look at real data. According to the USDA ERS food price outlook reports @ https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/ the 20 year average percent change year on year is something like 2.0% - 2.5%. The change from sept. 2021 to sept 2022 has been 11.2%. The forecasted change in 2022 is approximately 10%. The foretasted change in 2023 is approximately 3.5%. This is dramatically more than just delayed increases from a strange year.

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#214

Post by RoddaWallPro »

vikingerik wrote: post #199
com2kid wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The inflation of 2022 is also largely an illusion - it's really just that a few percentage points of what should have been normal inflation in 2020 and first-half 2021 was time-shifted into 2022. Food prices are up 48% at the nations second largest grocery chain. Rent prices are now through the roof, 20-30% year over year increases are common in major cities. Things are more expensive, full stop, and it isn't just…

That's exactly what I'm talking about. Don't look at year-over-year numbers, you're falling for the illusion. A rent jump of 20% for 2022 is because rents were artificially suppressed in 2020 and 2021. The right comparison is to look at 2022 compared to 2019 and see if it looks out of line for a three-year period. A few things are, but most aren't. Also, citing one grocery chain is a cherry-picked outlier. Cite them…

That is _not_ exactly what you are talking about: food prices do not normally go up 24% a year. Rent prices do not normally go up 10-15% a year.

If their number is cherry-picked, give a real number yourself. Anecdotally, my grocery bills are easily 30%+ from what they were last year, and the same is true for many people I've asked.

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#215

Post by pclmulqdq »

importantbrian wrote: post #75
supergeek133 wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the broadest view of the economy growing. So there may be some business leaders who work in still growing industries who are trying to "wish the recession into existence" as you say.. But on the flipside you have things like housing taking a downturn (not just home prices, but actual housing construction) which negatively impacts all of their suppliers (HVAC equipment, lumber, contracting companies, etc etc).…

This may just be a localized thing, but housing construction here is not slowing down. My in-laws own a construction business and they're the busiest they've ever been. Their biggest challenge is hiring and getting supplies.

I think there are signs that the economy is balakanizing, and that is not a good thing. We see the same thing near us: construction and landscaping are booming.

In some other places, I hear that there is no work in that profession. The same appears to be happening to companies, with Facebook down 20% today while oil companies see no signs of recession.

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#216

Post by alar44 »

yardie wrote: post #124
jandrese wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Supposedly the car market is about to crash as well. There was supposedly 2008 like shenanigans in the auto lending segment and the crows are coming home to root. Speculation is that people were buying cars they couldn't afford using the stimulus checks as the downpayment and then immediately asking for a halt on payments due to COVID. With both factors no longer in play people can't afford their cars and are default…

Stimulus checks were what $2000 total. That's less than 10% on a new car and most competent banks look at your monthly payment and DTI to determine how much to loan. > A recession is bad for the party in power and a lot of the economic catastrophe drumbeat started around the time early polls opened up. They've moved from economy to gas and the polls are now on crime. Really anything to stir up FUD.

That would then be $8k for a family of 4.

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#217

Post by jvanderbot »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #182
gretch wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Glad you’re content. If you’re in the US, As a bonus, just remember that the US gov always does everything it can to keep housing prices stable or up. Of course it’s not an easy problem for them, but you’re in the same boat as millions of other ppl and the govt won’t let you crash out that hard.

> As a bonus, just remember that the US gov always does everything it can to keep housing prices stable or up What country doesn't do this? China surely does that even more aggressively than the USA; Australia, yep; so...Japan? That's the only country I can think of that doesn't mind some long term lowering of housing prices.

There are 195 countries in the world. A dart thrown at a map would probably not hit a spot that is likely to prop up the general home-owning public.

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#218

Post by dsfyu404ed »

theGnuMe wrote: post #145
Auracle wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

What is your hypothesis exactly? Are you saying those 5m folks took the 3m houses?

He's saying that while the numbers make it look like we're building homes slightly faster than the population is growing that's not the case once you count off the books immigration. So the housing deficit is getting worse, not better.

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#219

Post by bryanlarsen »

nightski wrote: post #192
vikingerik wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There never was a real recession - it's an artifact of year-over-year numbers that were so skewed from pandemic effects. Pent-up consumer demand shifted much activity from 2020 into 2021. This is the source of all the apparent weirdness. Every yearly number in 2021 looked great thanks to comparing an artificially high number to an artificially low 2020 baseline. Then every yearly number from 2022 looks terrible, beca…

The data just does not seem to line up with your assessment. Labor force participation rate is down 1% since pre-pandemic. It's not earth shattering, but it is quite a drop. Also inflation is hardly a few percentage points of catch up. Look at the chart below and tell me you still believe that. https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-pri... Not to mention food/gas is worse which is what hits people i…

LFPR is up for people under 50. The drop in overall LFPR can be almost entirely attributed to the drop in immigration during the pandemic.

Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

#220

Post by nfriedly »

jandrese wrote: post #66
alexb_ wrote: post #2

>Housing investment, though, plunged at a 26% annual pace, hammered by surging mortgage rates as the Federal Reserve aggressively raises borrowing costs to combat chronic inflation. It was the sixth straight quarterly drop in residential investment. Thank christ. Please bring on a housing crash ASAP.

Supposedly the car market is about to crash as well. There was supposedly 2008 like shenanigans in the auto lending segment and the crows are coming home to root. Speculation is that people were buying cars they couldn't afford using the stimulus checks as the downpayment and then immediately asking for a halt on payments due to COVID. With both factors no longer in play people can't afford their cars and are default…

> Speculation is that people were buying cars they couldn't afford using the stimulus checks as the downpayment and then immediately asking for a halt on payments due to COVID.

I wouldn't be surprised if that happened a few times, but I find it hard to believe that it was widespread enough to significantly impact car prices. I certainly haven't heard of anyone doing this.

That said, I'd welcome a reduction in used car prices. Someone ran into our car and totaled it earlier this year. We replaced it with the exact same make model and year, and it cost us several thousand dollars more than buying it the first time, despite it now being several years older.

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