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Hans Niemann Suing Magnus Carlsen, Chess.com, and Hikaru Nakamura

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Re: Hans Niemann Suing Magnus Carlsen, Chess.com, and Hikaru Nakamura

#201

Post by Maursault »

2bitencryption wrote: post #44

Can someone explain something - Assume for a moment Hans did not cheat (aside from the times he admitted to cheating). In the scenario where he did not cheat - how amazing is his performance? I.e. beating Magnus, Elo rating, etc. I know chess.com did an analysis, which I've read, but I'm hoping someone more impartial could explain it. In the scenario where he did not cheat, is he really on a Bobby Fischer-like ascend…

> Assume for a moment Hans did not cheat (aside from the times he admitted to cheating). In the scenario where he did not cheat - how amazing is his performance? ...In the scenario where he did not cheat, is he really on a Bobby Fischer-like ascendance?

I think so, yes, and even considerably moreso.

According to Yosha Iglesias[1] and her anonymous mathematician friend, for 5 tournaments in a row starting at the Philadelphia Open in July 2021 Hans Niemann played at an average engine correlation of 73%, beating Bobby Fischer's average engine correlation of 72% during his 20 game winning streak between 2 Dec. 1970 and 30 Sept. 1971. Fischer's peak rating was 2895 in October 1971 at 27yo. Niemann's peak rating was 2699 this month, October 2022, at 19yo.

Also according to Yosha, in three years Niemann has played 10 games with a perfect 100% engine correlation and 23 games with engine correlations above 90%.[2]

My own chess layman analysis of the experts' analyses is that the best chess players in the world right now generally play games with engine correlations ranging game to game from the mid-60%s to the high-80%s, with much rarer games in the 90%s, and games 100% engine correlated being a once or twice in a lifetime event. Magnus Carlson at his best has an engine correlation of 70%.[1]

Unless he cheated, it is quite clear to me, at least, that Hans Niemann is the singular greatest chess player of all time.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfPzUgzrOcQ&t=15m11s

[2] https://twitter.com/iglesiasyosha/status/1574374153997647874

Re: Hans Niemann Suing Magnus Carlsen, Chess.com, and Hikaru Nakamura

#202

Post by ProjectArcturis »

blep_ wrote: post #180
jjk166 wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Golf's a game of precision motor control, while insanely long drives might be evidence of cheating, it's hard to imagine a way to make yourself more accurate besides skill, at least without it being obvious on live television. Biking obviously involves a lot of different things but it's much easier to see how doping is going to help. Football has so many facets that it's kind of surprising there aren't more cheating…

Legitimate curiosity from a non-golf person: how would one cheat at golf?

Steroids for longer drives.

Re: Hans Niemann Suing Magnus Carlsen, Chess.com, and Hikaru Nakamura

#203

Post by p5a0u9l »

2bitencryption wrote: post #44

Can someone explain something - Assume for a moment Hans did not cheat (aside from the times he admitted to cheating). In the scenario where he did not cheat - how amazing is his performance? I.e. beating Magnus, Elo rating, etc. I know chess.com did an analysis, which I've read, but I'm hoping someone more impartial could explain it. In the scenario where he did not cheat, is he really on a Bobby Fischer-like ascend…

What I don't think most people are appreciating in this thread is that at this level of play the cheating can be extremely subtle and yet extremely effective. None of the players in this dramas are talking about a cheater having a hidden mind link to a chess engine. These games typically hinge on one or two crucial moments. GMs need only one bit of information at the right moment to play several hundred points above their normal rating. A cough at a point where there's a win opportunity or a potential trap is all that's needed.

Re: Hans Niemann Suing Magnus Carlsen, Chess.com, and Hikaru Nakamura

#204

Post by nilespotter »

faeriechangling wrote: post #112
nilespotter wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> which could have had quite terrible mental health consequences for some God people are so fragile these days.

Yeah totally these fragile snowflakes crying "boohoo I lost my career that I had been working on for my entire life and people harass me whenever I appear in public and call me a sham :..(" All you need to maintain your mental health is a good bottle of whisky and a stiff upper lip!

I didn't mean him, I meant those who immediately grasp for some lame armchair psychology interpretation of everything. So somebody cheated, they got caught, and it feels bad to get roasted -- so what? He gets what he gets, we don't need to try to manage his internal mental states. It absolutely is snowflake-ism. A stiff upper lip goes a long ways, you should try it.

Re: Hans Niemann Suing Magnus Carlsen, Chess.com, and Hikaru Nakamura

#205

Post by pretendscholar »

sillysaurusx wrote: post #156
awb wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> His play is objectively insane But he doesn't do himself any favors with comments like "the chess speaks for itself", or offering what according to other GMs is a lackluster analysis of those astounding moves. Whether it's immaturity or cheating remains to be seen.

Definitely. Though I wouldn’t have done any better at 19. Teens aren’t known for eloquence or having the proper amount of confidence.

Please listen to Duda,Keymer, Ali reza do post game analysis. They can speak very well about their ideas. It is not normal to be a 2700 and be unable to give your thoughts on the game you just played.

Re: Hans Niemann Suing Magnus Carlsen, Chess.com, and Hikaru Nakamura

#206

Post by dylan604 »

thatguy0900 wrote: post #191
dylan604 wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You may think that cheating without getting caught is some sort of innovation, but I think you're really stretching for that one. Maybe the phrase should be updated to "If you can't innovate, litigate. Or cheat" If you were moving yourself to a better place or even the "sport" or whatever you're involved is moved forward because of you getting better, that would be innovation. Trying to win but not putting in the eff…

I don't know, especially on this website. Half of the super innovative high market cap companies everyone laudes on here just have "cheating/ignoring regulations and common decency" as half of the innovation.

Sounds like you're ready for another round of investment! Probably the biggest lesson to be learned from YC or any incubator. (Fake it 'til you make)++. If you can't fake it, lie lie lie until they believe it.

Re: Hans Niemann Suing Magnus Carlsen, Chess.com, and Hikaru Nakamura

#207

Post by FreakLegion »

vecter wrote: post #84
2bitencryption wrote: post #44

Can someone explain something - Assume for a moment Hans did not cheat (aside from the times he admitted to cheating). In the scenario where he did not cheat - how amazing is his performance? I.e. beating Magnus, Elo rating, etc. I know chess.com did an analysis, which I've read, but I'm hoping someone more impartial could explain it. In the scenario where he did not cheat, is he really on a Bobby Fischer-like ascend…

Hans is currently rated around 2700 (at least his live rating after his performance at the US Chess Championship). A few other GMs around that rating have beaten Magnus in just the last week or two (Arjun Erigaisi and Gukesh to name a couple), so it's not out of this world. It is still certainly an upset, but not impossible.

Arjun and Gukesh haven't won classical games against him. Losses are normal in rapid, even for Magnus.

Re: Hans Niemann Suing Magnus Carlsen, Chess.com, and Hikaru Nakamura

#209

Post by Test0129 »

miamibre wrote: post #145

Please note: I am not a lawyer With that said, pretty much everyone in my family, including my SO, are lawyers and I have been around the block a few times when it comes to discussing slander / libel suits in the US. As an independent 3rd party with no interest in the world of Chess, I don't see how Niemann expects to win any damages in this case. In the US the bar for slander is very high due to the existence of the…

> As an independent 3rd party with no interest in the world of Chess, I don't see how Niemann expects to win any damages in this case.

That's not the goal with most of these libel/slander law suits. Consider the most famous one - Billy Mitchell the most infamous professional gamer of all time. The evidence is basically unanimous he cheated but he uses lawsuits to shut down people who can't afford to fight them.

I imagine this is no different. Your only mistake is assuming the court won't throw out such a trashy lawsuit and lawyers exist that actually have some dignity.

Re: Hans Niemann Suing Magnus Carlsen, Chess.com, and Hikaru Nakamura

#210

Post by fastball »

Test0129 wrote: post #209
miamibre wrote: post #145

Please note: I am not a lawyer With that said, pretty much everyone in my family, including my SO, are lawyers and I have been around the block a few times when it comes to discussing slander / libel suits in the US. As an independent 3rd party with no interest in the world of Chess, I don't see how Niemann expects to win any damages in this case. In the US the bar for slander is very high due to the existence of the…

> As an independent 3rd party with no interest in the world of Chess, I don't see how Niemann expects to win any damages in this case. That's not the goal with most of these libel/slander law suits. Consider the most famous one - Billy Mitchell the most infamous professional gamer of all time. The evidence is basically unanimous he cheated but he uses lawsuits to shut down people who can't afford to fight them. I ima…

The Billy Mitchell strategy doesn't make sense in this case though, since I guarantee you that all three named entities have more money to fight lawsuits than Hans Niemann.
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