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Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

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Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#991

Post by leaflets2 »

Fatnino wrote: post #969
csomar wrote: post #831

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's interesting you wrote a very long response and yet you presented no concrete arguments that the US could be behind this. We can agree that most EU countries will not support such an incident. The only two countries who have the technical capability and the political reasons are the USA and Russia. Both are evil and ready to blow the world for their own gains. > why would they take the risk to destroy the pipelin…

Anyone with access to either end of the pipeline had the technical capability to do this. Slip a time bomb into the pipe and have it get pumped out to sea before exploding.

Either end? But the gas flows in one direction only?

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#992

Post by lovemenot »

girvo wrote: post #885
lovemenot wrote: post #736

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GreenWar: a hypothetical sibling of GreenPeace. Of course I don't actually believe this. However, considering the war and today's sabotage purely from a global warming perspective, it could be net positive in the long run. Accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels.

I wonder if the sheer amount of methane dumped into the atmosphere from the damaged pipelines would be an acceptable cost for the hypothetical GreenWar? I couldn't see it, myself. The pipes weren't empty, and thats a lot of quite bad greenhouse gas now making things worse.

It's a tricky calculation for sure. Depends on the likelihood and duration of those pipelines ever being used again, and the take-up of alternate, renewable energy sources - or just doing without.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#993

Post by lenkite »

WinstonSmith84 wrote: post #666
thiagoharry wrote: post #578

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is Putin direct interest destroy a source of income and leverage to the country!?!? Now Germany can buy gas from 2 sources: Ukraine and USA. This explanation makes no sense to me.

Like on any crime scene, who profits from the crime? Well, a few things first: 1- NS1 along NS2 are (were) shutdown and clearly these were not going to re-open, not before the end of the war - not politically acceptable for Putin, even less for Germany 2- The war is going to last for many more months (best case scenario) or a year or two or ... No matter how long it will really last, Europe, after having survived Win…

Norway-Poland gas pipeline opened up on the same day that the N-2 pipeline blew up. Also, those waters are HEAVILY controlled by NATO nations. We all know who benefits here - and it isn't the Russians.

PS: US has blown up Soviet gas pipelines covertly before while condemning the act the same time. Read "At the Abyss: An Insider's History of the Cold War".

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#994

Post by SanjayMehta »

actionfromafar wrote: post #946
SanjayMehta wrote: post #805

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Putin is acting as irrationally as JFK did during the Cuban missile crisis.

Putin is acting rationally as someone staying in power at all costs to his country.

You just described the Biden regime with elections coming up.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#995

Post by miguelazo »

piva00 wrote: post #986
miguelazo wrote: post #795

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow, you really took the Putin Bad Guy theme way out on a limb! Completely devoid of any logic or historical context.

And you didn't add logic and the historical context you feel it's missing, what exactly is the point of your comment then?

I mean, we could also start with basic logic: Who gains from disabling the pipeline? This absurd theory that Putin doesn't benefit from the revenue isn't even worth addressing. On the other hand, Pompeo explicitly stated the US would do "anything" to prevent Nordstream 2 from coming online, Biden alluded to the same: Biden in Feb 2022: "If Russia invades...then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."

Q: "But how will you do that, exactly, since...the project is in Germany's control?"

Biden: "I promise you, we will be able to do that."

Add to that the Polish FM (husband of The Atlantic hack Anne Applebaum) thanking the US for destroying the pipeline on Twitter. Maybe you could try doing your own research-- outside of the security state stenographers like WaPo and Wikipedia.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#996

Post by miguelazo »

mort96 wrote: post #668
scottLobster wrote: post #631

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Winning the war in Ukraine, however, is a primary objective. Wasn't his whole plan to energy-starve Europe over the winter until they came crawling back? The only way Putin has a remote chance of winning the war at this point is if western support stops, destroying the one mechanism that might actually do that seems counterproductive.

Staying alive, and staying in charge, are probably even more primary than winning the war. I'm not saying I believe this is the cause, mind you. I'm firmly undecided on that one.

Helps to stay alive and in charge when your economy is still benefiting from the massive revenues the pipleline brings. It's amazing the lengths some people will go to distort reality to fit their preconceptions.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#997

Post by mechanical_bear »

jpfr wrote: post #462
NeverFade wrote: post #387

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It removes the degree of freedom to restart supplying gas. Have you been following the news? The current Russian regime is threatening the use of nuclear weapons, and massacring thousands in war crimes in Ukraine. The EU has already set up permanent alternatives to Russian gas: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-27/europe-is... The current Russian regime will never be able to repair relations with the…

> The current Russian regime will never be able to repair relations with the west to the extent that will allow the Nordstream pipelines to resume operations. The new supply chain isn't yet ready to a sufficient level. The pain inflicted by missing gas could become high enough for some "moral flexibility". Apparently some state actor did see a greater-zero-chance for resumed operations. Otherwise, why blow up the pip…

Or Putin calculated the near zero percent chance of restarting the pipeline and found it a worthwhile sacrifice in pursuit of a false flag to rally domestic support (of which he is sorely lacking).

False flags are Putin’s MO. https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2012/11/22/finally-we-know-...

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-the-1999-russian-apartme...

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#998

Post by fmajid »

Roark66 wrote: post #915
fmajid wrote: post #902

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s absurd, like cutting your nose to spite your enemy’s face. Putin would have sabotaged the Polish pipeline instead of his own, after all it’s not as if Russian-Polish relations can sink any lower.

Yes, as absurd as let's say attacking the only country in the world that has a large percentage of population that actually supports you(many people in Eastern Ukraine speak Russian at home)?

He was expecting to waltz into Kyiv in a few days, decapitate the Ukrainian government (literally), not to have to wage an intense war of attrition. Of course he miscalculated because of piss-poor intelligence (the one thing the former USSR was usually good at), that doesn't make the original calculation irrational.

Now if he had sabotaged the Norway-Denmark-Poland Baltic Pipe, he would have achived the same objectives, preserved his own capital investment, and killed off a potential competitor to Russian gas. Sure, it would have been a direct attack against a NATO country, but so was the 2014 bombing of the Czech munition depot in Vrbětice.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#999

Post by margalabargala »

cesarb wrote: post #759
margalabargala wrote: post #738

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The Polish prime minister immediately called "sabotage" and fingered Russia, while everyone else is still saying "it could be sabotage but we need to investigate first". Pipes of both Nordstream 1 and 2 blew up simultaneously. It seems pretty immediately obvious that it was done intentionally by someone. I'm sure the perpetrator will eventually become known; I don't pretend to know who it is now. But that it was sa…

> Pipes of both Nordstream 1 and 2 blew up simultaneously. It seems pretty immediately obvious that it was done intentionally by someone. Playing devil's advocate: it could be that one of them blew up first, and the other blew up in a sympathetic explosion ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sympathetic_detonation ). Or it could be that the pressure wave from the first one blowing up weakened the second one, leading to a…

The leaks are separated by almost 4 miles, and 17 hours. A sympathetic explosion seems unlikely.

My previous description of "simultaneous" was incorrect.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#1000

Post by kstenerud »

kstenerud wrote: post #90

If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on Poland. The Polish prime minister immediately called "sabotage" and fingered Russia, while everyone else is still saying "it could be sabotage but we need to investigate first". Russia wants the taps capable of being turned ON at their discretion, not permanently broken. This hurts their bargaining position in a big way because they've just lost their biggest source of lev…

Update: Turns out it was the Russians after all.
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