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Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

forsvaret.dk

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Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#881

Post by mytailorisrich »

mort96 wrote: post #878
mytailorisrich wrote: post #857

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The key point is that "they" is the Ukrainian war propaganda machine, which is obviously not a reliable source of news or analysis. It is also a classic propaganda technique to differenciate between the awful dictator and its poor people/country. I do not know what happened and if it was deliberate it is not obvious who did it. People should be prudent and not buy into propaganda from either side.

"They" specifically referred to /u/yznovyak here, I don't know if they're part of a war propaganda machine or not. But /u/yznovyak talked about what's in Putin's interest, /u/mytailorisrich argued that no, it's not in Russia's interest. All I was doing was pointing out that /u/yznovyak was talking about Putin's interest, which might not perfectly overlap with Russia's. And you're right, pointing out that there's a di…

The person I was replying to wrote "Common theme I've heard here (Kyiv, Ukraine)". They (Ukraine) are at war so everything in their media or stated by government and President is part of their war propaganda machine. That's how war works.

The West is effectively part of the war so we cannot trust anything we're told there, either.

The only thing we can do is think for ourselves.

Oh and I've just realised that my initial comment has been flagged! You could not make this up... Very disappointing.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#882

Post by randomsearch »

kstenerud wrote: post #90

If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on Poland. The Polish prime minister immediately called "sabotage" and fingered Russia, while everyone else is still saying "it could be sabotage but we need to investigate first". Russia wants the taps capable of being turned ON at their discretion, not permanently broken. This hurts their bargaining position in a big way because they've just lost their biggest source of lev…

I’d say Poland wouldn’t be capable of this. I mean, you’ve got to be really really really confident that it won’t be public knowledge you’ve done this. And I’d be worried to what extent my intelligence services had been infiltrated if I hadn’t done this type of intervention a dozen times before and gotten away with it.

The same logic leads me to conclude it’s one of the major powers, a country that regularly does major ops and gets away with it. One that wouldn’t be worried about being caught because they hadn’t been caught before.

So: Russia, US, China, Israel, U.K. would be contenders

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#883

Post by londons_explore »

Animatronio wrote: post #691
WinstonSmith84 wrote: post #666

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like on any crime scene, who profits from the crime? Well, a few things first: 1- NS1 along NS2 are (were) shutdown and clearly these were not going to re-open, not before the end of the war - not politically acceptable for Putin, even less for Germany 2- The war is going to last for many more months (best case scenario) or a year or two or ... No matter how long it will really last, Europe, after having survived Win…

1. NS1 and/or NS2 were ready to reopen according to Putin if Europe were to lift sanctions. 2. EU is trying to stop being reliant on Russian gas, so far it isn't fait accompli. 3. Based on 1+2 we could assume someone wants to push EU as far away from Russia as possible as fast as possible(regarding gas supplying, to be clear) So again, who profits and has the means to do accomplish such feat: 1. USA: very vocal again…

> has the means and maybe motivation to do so.

How hard is it to destroy a pipeline? Do you actually need an underwater UAV, or might lowering explosives on a rope and a timer from a small boat do the job?

Remember - water transmits compression waves really well, and the pipe is the only compressible thing around. The sea there is only 200 meters deep, so lowering it on a rope at slack tide and with a good GPS on the boat, I'd imagine you'd be able to get explosives landing within 10 meters or so of the pipe.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#884

Post by randomsearch »

politician wrote: post #765

It’s highly probable that this is a strategic response to Putin’s increasing rhetoric about using nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

Yes.

I think it’s the USA. They were furious about this pipeline and angry at Germany for their dependence on Russian gas.

This turns Europe away from Russia and sends a strong signal.

It removes a carrot Russia would wave to Europe.

It’s under the cover of a messy situation.

It sends a warning sign to Russia about nuclear weapons. The US could wipe out all energy exports and destroy the Russian economy without deploying a single nuke.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#885

Post by girvo »

lovemenot wrote: post #736
tpmx wrote: post #512

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What kind of sub-national groups in relevant countries do you have in mind? Otherwise: Agreed.

GreenWar: a hypothetical sibling of GreenPeace. Of course I don't actually believe this. However, considering the war and today's sabotage purely from a global warming perspective, it could be net positive in the long run. Accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels.

I wonder if the sheer amount of methane dumped into the atmosphere from the damaged pipelines would be an acceptable cost for the hypothetical GreenWar? I couldn't see it, myself. The pipes weren't empty, and thats a lot of quite bad greenhouse gas now making things worse.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#886

Post by londons_explore »

Covzire wrote: post #775
Animatronio wrote: post #691

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. NS1 and/or NS2 were ready to reopen according to Putin if Europe were to lift sanctions. 2. EU is trying to stop being reliant on Russian gas, so far it isn't fait accompli. 3. Based on 1+2 we could assume someone wants to push EU as far away from Russia as possible as fast as possible(regarding gas supplying, to be clear) So again, who profits and has the means to do accomplish such feat: 1. USA: very vocal again…

China benefits greatly, Russian oil and gas now have only one reliable buyer for the foreseeable future. Invading Taiwan is now easier since blockading the shipping lanes from the ME will have little impact on the Chinese war machine if they get reliable oil from Russia.

Except Russia has no east west gas or oil transmission infrastructure. Whatever they extract from the west they need to export west, and whatever they extract in the east must go east

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#887

Post by girvo »

DSingularity wrote: post #832
UyERifyhDLWOf wrote: post #794

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The OP link goes to "forsvaret.dk" wich is the Danish military. I am a Dane. I think I may be able to offer a perspective on this that non-Danes will simply miss. While being a regular reader, for posting this I have created a new account that will not be used again. Please excuse me for being a bit verbose, as this is not simple: ONE First, I am not positive if this technically happened inside our territorial waters…

ONE the world is falling apart TWO half the internet thinks the Russians are the aggressor THREE half the internet thinks the country that nuked Japan, decimated Vietnam, bombed Cambodia, illegally invaded Iraq, supports brutal dictatorships world wide, … is to blame for pushing its hegemonic grip a tad bit too much FOUR the effects of this are spreading… the world is falling apart

> Russians are the aggressor

That's because they absolutely are.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#888

Post by foverzar »

Covzire wrote: post #775
Animatronio wrote: post #691

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. NS1 and/or NS2 were ready to reopen according to Putin if Europe were to lift sanctions. 2. EU is trying to stop being reliant on Russian gas, so far it isn't fait accompli. 3. Based on 1+2 we could assume someone wants to push EU as far away from Russia as possible as fast as possible(regarding gas supplying, to be clear) So again, who profits and has the means to do accomplish such feat: 1. USA: very vocal again…

China benefits greatly, Russian oil and gas now have only one reliable buyer for the foreseeable future. Invading Taiwan is now easier since blockading the shipping lanes from the ME will have little impact on the Chinese war machine if they get reliable oil from Russia.

You forgot about all the other pipelines from Russia to Europe.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#889

Post by herewulf »

wonderwonder wrote: post #804
OrvalWintermute wrote: post #747

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 2- Russia: they are losing the war and now throwing conscripts with not a day of training on the front. That's pretty desperate move to say the least. Whenever they escalate, they see that as a chance to break unity among the west. Blowing up their (now useless) pipeline is in line with another desperate move: at least try to make something useful out of it. If Russia loses the war, Putin is just dead (at least pol…

Russia has over 50k KIA and have lost many thousands of heavy vehicles, aircraft and even battleships. Hundreds of these vehicles are now being used against them by the Ukrainians. Russia may get support from Iran or N. Korea but so what? The support is in the form of equipment generations behind what is being delivered to Ukraine by the US and on tap to arrive from Europe. They are about to send 300k untrained men i…

I stopped reading at "battleships".

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#890

Post by globalnode »

XorNot wrote: post #737
jmyeet wrote: post #722

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Online I've seen some takes that America is responsible for this. I get why. America's foreign policy has done and continues to do some appalling things (eg any number of coups). The idea is that the US doesn't want Europe to be reliant on Russian gas or that Russia may be able to use the prospect of that gas (coming into winter) to sway Europe with respect to Ukraine. I don't buy it. The blowback potential would be…

The question no one asks is "how long does it take to repair a break in the pipeline?" The whole pipeline is still there, this is damaged sections. This would be a known risk of an undersea pipeline: stuff undersea gets damaged by ships all the time [1]. I would wager, were we in normal circumstances, we'd be talking 6 months. There'd be big money at stake, vital infrastructure, and that's about as long as you've got…

there are overland pipes through ukraine, poland, belarus, czech republic and austria too, so any likely putin usurpers could easily use those. wheres the rational for russia to blow them up really?

those countries didnt want ns2 because it cut out their middle man charges. most likely culprit is any of those countries (cough poland cough)

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