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Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

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901–910 of 1001 posts

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#901
post #650

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? At least in Sweden I would say most people are celebrating that Nordstream went kaputt.

That's a rather big claim and I would disagree. That said, looking forward to paying 20 SEK per kWh, that'll be fun. Also, there's no wooden pellets or firewood for purchase no more - as it's all going to the continent.

Isn’t Sweden insulated from the energy crisis because so much of its electricity comes from hydropower and nuclear?

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#902
post #260

I don't see a mention that today is the day Poland officially opens up its pipeline to Denmark and Norway. The pipeline Russia (and to a much lesser extent Germany) put a lot of resources trying to jeopardize. Some of the things those two countries did include: Financing of various "grassroots ecology groups" that managed to find an extremely important field mouse (no joke!) habitat on the planned route which caused…

I liked the theory that Russia did it as a warning that they can blow up Poland's pipeline anytime.

That’s absurd, like cutting your nose to spite your enemy’s face. Putin would have sabotaged the Polish pipeline instead of his own, after all it’s not as if Russian-Polish relations can sink any lower.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#903
post #530

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they just turn a valve, they break contract. If they pipeline blows up, its force majeure. They can still pump gas using the other pipelines (yamal etc). But they will shut down all of them eventually. Why? Because they are past the point of no return.

A decent portion of EU citizens think going without Russian gas is a terrible idea. And that's this summer. Just wait until it gets cold. Going back is very easy. Most of the public wants to go back, and you can go back.

You keep asserting in this thread that most EU citizens want to get russian gas right now. This doesn't really correspond with what I perceive in my country or understand to be the case in the rest of the EU... Do you have any public polling to back this up and are you talking about any regions in the EU in particular?

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#904

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Surely Russia has no interest in sabotaging the pipelines that give them leverage over Europe. Does this not give them even more leverage over Europe? There's no longer simply a switch that Russia can flip to resume the flow of gas into Europe and previously only Nordstream 1 was shut down (please correct me if I'm wrong). It's not so hard to imagine tactics to compel Russia to flip a switch, but repairing these pi…

Nah, it's quite the opposite. It's getting cold now, there are internal pressures in many EU countries to fuck this war and sit down with putin and make an agreement so russia can reopen the gas lines. Putin knows that, and probably has a list of conditions ready to reopen them. If the pipes are destroyed, even if people protest, there's no way to get russian gas again (atleast not fast and cheaply), and no incentive…

Exactly. Throwing away the lever doesn’t give you leverage.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#905
post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nice find! Was talking to a trumper who was blaming the invasion on the US having a weak president. Seems like the opposite if anything. Biden quarterbacked the maidan coup. Seeing him become president probably wasn’t a happy moment for Putin. Edit: these things are censored in google, Wikipedia etc by US state actors. We largely have to go on the words of people like Max Blumenthal and others who have been largely c…

> Edit: these things are censored in google, Wikipedia etc by US state actors. We largely have to go on the words of people like Max Blumenthal and others who have been largely censored and scrubbed from easy access by these same state apparatuses or wait until foia requests reveal what they always reveal about our benevolent state. Max Blumenthal is a Russian propagandist who is a regular guest on Russian state back…

> Max Blumenthal is a Russian propagandist who is a regular guest on Russian state backed networks such RT and Sputnik.

He is an American, and he had also worked with Al Jazeera, The New York Times and a few other wide-known and reputable organizations.

Your logic that someone is somehow inferior due to being "tainted" by interacting with those you don't like isn't really solid, especially when discussing a journalist.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#906

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's frankly absurd. The notion that NS2 would enter operation is absurd. NS2 has been dead in the water for months, and the prospect of entering service have been dubious for some time before the Russians invaded Ukraine.

Washington had a very clear policy of never letting NS2 enter production (remember that ominous Biden quip before the war? [1]), which, by the way, is the opposite of absurd: Germany is a major consumer of natural gas and Russia is a major nearby supplier. NS2 is natural in a world without geopolitical drama. "NS2 shouldn't exist" is a narrative manufactured in Washington (and delivered to Germany by Baerbock), that…

It was Washington that waived sanctions in 2021 to allow NS2. It is only on Russian mobilization that the policy changed.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-57180674

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#907
post #248

My theory is that Putin ordered it. He recently made two major escalations, mobilization and annexation, that greatly decrease the odds of a peaceful settlement and increase the odds of him being overthrown internally. This move undercuts the leverage a new leader would have after a coup, since it will be harder to get gas flowing again following a truce. Putin seems to be staking his entire regime on this war and li…

Why doesn't he destroy the pipelines going through Ukraine then?

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#908

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia's greatest leverage was Europe needing their gas, and eventually agreeing to stop supporting Ukraine in order to get the gas turned back on. Now if the pipelines are destroyed, no matter how cold and angry citizens in the EU get, EU leadership has no reason to give in to Russian since that now won't get the gas turned back on. If anything, this points to Ukraine or the US doing it.

This is not an act in the same level as the Ukraine-Russia war. This is a very top level geopolitical attack. This appears to be in international waters so it will be interesting when forensic results are published. It can not possibly be in Russia's interest. They could easily nix NS2 at source. And now, even if diplomacy or desperation brings Russia to reach a peace deal with Ukraine, NS2 is out of commission for a…

> Germany? It is possible that German deep state is not united. There are Atlantists and those who assert that German and Russian coexistence is optimal. The former faction could have done this to basically close that temptation/option to German government.

It eliminates a potential threat to the present Germany government; their rivals promising to turn the gas back on if they're put in power.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#909

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The USA is the country that threatened an attack against the gas pipeline. "If Russia invades, that means tanks or troops crossing the -- the border of Ukraine again, then there will be -- there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2," Biden said during the press conference with Scholz, who did not go as far as Biden, but insisted the U.S. and Germany remain "absolutely united." https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-meet-…

In the context of that day it meant Germany not approving Nord Stream 2, which is what happened. He didn't mean blowing it up.

He meant what he had said and that is that the US will prevent the pipeline from working properly.

We have no information to reason about how it was meant to be achieved then or how far would one go in case of some contingency.

We can infer though that the circumstances had changed (Russian mobilization and referendums) and that the US ends up profiting the most now that the NS1/2 can't be turned back on.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#910

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my mind, the Ukrainians are the only party who could blow the pipelines without being dirty. It's a strategic asset of a country they're in an active war with.

At 70m it could also be a private citizen

A private citizen who simultaneously possesses the requisite skills, resources, opportunity, and inclination. Not impossible, but very unlikely.
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