Nordstream: An Accident? • Hacker News Board

Re: Nordstream: An Accident?

#161

Post by valuearb » Sun, Oct 02, 2022, 7:33 PM UTC

room606 wrote: post #96

cpursley wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your theory just doesn't check out. With the pipelines destroyed, Russia can't blackmail the EU with energy as easily as they could before. And why would they destroy infrastructure that they poured billions into when they could have just turned off the taps any time they pleased? The pipelines now being destroyed is a really bad thing for Russia, a worse thing for the EU and a great situation for the USA (and Poland…

It's called burning bridges. Both domestically and internationally. It signals that Russia is committed to seeing the war through regardless of what the West does and it consolidates power domestically by discouraging any potential conspirators from acting against Putin since destroying the pipelines makes it virtually impossible for any replacement to resume delivery of gas to Europe

Ludicrous.

Putin wants Europe to cave this winter and use the leverage of turning these pipelines back on to get them to stop suppporting Ukraine.

Re: Nordstream: An Accident?

#162

Post by valuearb » Sun, Oct 02, 2022, 7:34 PM UTC

rmind wrote: post #107

sudden_dystopia wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Legally, you can’t just invade another country but that didn’t stop Russia and it has never stopped the US. Do you think Russia is going to care about the legality of debts they owe to a system that is sanctioning them? What more can we penalize them with if they don’t pay, nukes? They are literally removing themselves from the system the west has set up and are creating a new one with other BRIC nations to try to co…

Russia won't but the West will. If you have a clear cut case of contract breach, then it's pretty straightforward to confiscate the property via courts and so on. The sanctions, on the other hand, are more complex, they might involve freezes (even if permanent, it's not confiscation), have different extent, not all countries subscribe to them, etc. The world is complex.

The west can't confiscate anything within Russia, and has already confiscated most of their foriegn currency assets.

The world isn't that complex. Putin needs these pipelines, they offer leverage when Europe runs low on gas.

Re: Nordstream: An Accident?

#163

Post by valuearb » Sun, Oct 02, 2022, 7:37 PM UTC

geysersam wrote: post #114

This is ridiculous. Every relevant government and official statement has made clear that this was sabotage.

And what authority and expertise do they have?

Re: Nordstream: An Accident?

#164

Post by valuearb » Sun, Oct 02, 2022, 7:40 PM UTC

pvaldes wrote: post #82

Pretty obvious sabotage. Neither a whale, nor a trawl can do it. Who benefits is a different question. Russia is economically damaged but once deciding that selling gas to Europe is not more an option, Putin has now a plausible excuse to not fulfill the gas contracts anymore, without being economically penalized for breaking those contracts, because... not my fault. It is desperate also to spark the flames of war in…

Putin doesn't care about contracts. He does care about having operational pipelines so he can use them as leverage with the west when Europe runs low on energy.

The US finally cobbled together a coalition to block Russian aggression, and the coalition is enabling Ukraine to win this war. Why would they want to destroy this coalition getting caught sabotaging pipelines in Europe?

Occcams razor says typical terrible Russian maintenance.

Re: Nordstream: An Accident?

#165

Post by valuearb » Sun, Oct 02, 2022, 7:41 PM UTC

Ekaros wrote: post #11

rfrey wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think, when war is raging and thousands are dying gruesome deaths, it's reasonable to consider malice.

And who actually gains from this in the long run... Certainly not Germany or Russia... Should make it pretty clear. It could be UK as tradition of breaking down Europe, but they are having enough issues that the timing is entirely wrong... I don't think China cares, so maybe Arabs, but I doubt. Only really leaves USA and we know what they have historically been up to.

The US finally has a coalition against Russian aggression in Europe, that is key to helping Ukraine win the war. Why would they throw this away on a stupid sabotage operation?

Re: Nordstream: An Accident?

#166

Post by llampx » Sun, Oct 02, 2022, 7:41 PM UTC

raverbashing wrote: post #72

photochemsyn wrote: post #65

These two pipelines have very different operational histories so the simultaneous formation of a 'methane hydrate plug' in both pipelines seems highly unlikely at best. There's also no apparent reason why such a methane hydrate plug should cause seismic-scale explosions in both pipelines. As far as motivation, the US agenda on Europe's fossil fuel market since at least 2008 has been to lock out Russian suppliers (who…

> Now, would Russia want to blow up its own pipelines when it can simply shut them down for 'maintenance' Because they can break the contracts due to "force-majeure" clauses, which shutting down won't let them do

This explanation doesn't clarify why Putin wouldn't blow up the pipelines in July, before telling Europe that they won't deliver gas as long as Europe applies sanctions on Russia. By doing that, Putin already broke any contracts.

Re: Nordstream: An Accident?

#167

Post by valuearb » Sun, Oct 02, 2022, 7:42 PM UTC

m4jor wrote: post #108

It was a nation-state backed attack imo, no accident.

There is no evidence of this, and no nation actor with a motivation to do this.

Re: Nordstream: An Accident?

#168

Post by valuearb » Sun, Oct 02, 2022, 7:43 PM UTC

supergirl wrote: post #153

my money is on US and/or UK. they seized the moment of chaos and destroyed the pipeline permanently. they have a lot to gain from this. it simply weakens EU, makes it more dependent on US/UK, weakens economy, etc. UK is not EU's friend and US is only a friend as long as EU falls in line and you never know in the future. Russia could have done it too but it makes no sense and most importantly they have a track record…

It's ludicrous to think Biden would green light an operation like this when he finally has a European coalition against Russian aggression helping Ukraine whin the war.

This would destroy that coalition in seconds.

Re: Nordstream: An Accident?

#169

Post by valuearb » Sun, Oct 02, 2022, 7:46 PM UTC

stuckinhell wrote: post #51

It's clearly not an accident. It's also hard to believe it was Russia, since now they can't blackmail Europe. Both Biden and Victoria Nuland have both publicly threaded to take out the pipelines on video no less.

Biden and Nuland threatened to stop it using their political leverage, not force.

Sabotage would destroy the European coalition against Russian aggression they've worked so hard to build.

Really ludicrous conspiracy theory that makes an accident the most likely cause.

Re: Nordstream: An Accident?

#170

Post by valuearb » Sun, Oct 02, 2022, 7:48 PM UTC

namaria wrote: post #8

Unqualified opinions are cheap. This random internet guy thinks sabotage is unlikely on the Nord Stream incident based on what is published on news websites? This has a weight of exactly zero.

Your opinion is far more unqualified than a carefully researched blog.

If you don't think what he wrote is true, rebut him factually, random HN guy.