It's clearly not an accident.
It's also hard to believe it was Russia, since now they can't blackmail Europe.
Both Biden and Victoria Nuland have both publicly threaded to take out the pipelines on video no less.
Nordstream: An Accident?
51–60 of 176 posts
Re: Nordstream: An Accident?
#52History is fun again.
This whole Nordstream case sounds feels like a James Bond style movie when a random news plays in the background while the protagonist is doing his business and then in two cutscenes we see cities burning.
Watching these movies is definitely fun, but living 1000km from a war zone is somewhat worrisome.
Anyways, I'll move finishing my bug-out-bag higher on my todo list.
Re: Nordstream: An Accident?
#53So far the most plausible theory is that Russia sabotaged the pipelines for two reasons [1]: 1) to claim force majeure and avoid massive penalties Gazprom would have to pay for the breach of contract (we are talking billions here; now they just blame the West and good luck proving in courts who actually did it); 2) to further blackmail and coerce the European nations (particularly Germany and Italy) who depend on Rus…
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Re: Nordstream: An Accident?
#54There is at least one factual inaccuracy here--Nordstream 1 was not cut off after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It was running at more or less usual capacity until early June, when the flow was cut by about 60%. It was then shut off in July for regular yearly maintenance window. It returned at 40% capacity for a while, before being slowed to 20% capacity in late July, and then shut off again at the end of August. So…
And NS2 was not operational at all, therefore the accident hypothesis is less likely there.
It was pressurized but not flowing (which confounds the pig hypothesis I've seen some commenters put forward.)
Re: Nordstream: An Accident?
#55To be honest, people dont seem to care too much who did it. It was russia: what are they gonna do, sanction them? It was the US: what are russians gonna do, go to war with the west? Whoever did this, they solved a Godrian knot. Imagine going into winter with one pipeline being the lifeline of europe. [My conspiracy theory: this was a arranged via secret negotiations between US and Russia. They want an end to the war…
> It was the US: what are russians gonna do,
If it was the US it's not Russia's role to be pissed, attacking allies infrastructure isn't a big brain move
Re: Nordstream: An Accident?
#56Can someone explain the chemistry of natural gas exploding by itself? In my understanding, you need oxygen for that to happen. There's a bunch of oxygen in the H2O, but what exactly would the products of an explosive reaction between natural gas and water be? Hydrogen and CO2? Don't think there's much energy to be released there... I can totally buy the "you depressurized only one end, so you had a plug slam into the…
If you have pressures above 3,000psi any sudden leak or hole will be pretty catastrophic. Not an explosion like a fire explosion, something more like explosive decompression in a plane.
Anyway I think they Swedes have pinned it down to an explosion, as in a bomb, based on seismometers.
Re: Nordstream: An Accident?
#57So far the most plausible theory is that Russia sabotaged the pipelines for two reasons [1]: 1) to claim force majeure and avoid massive penalties Gazprom would have to pay for the breach of contract (we are talking billions here; now they just blame the West and good luck proving in courts who actually did it); 2) to further blackmail and coerce the European nations (particularly Germany and Italy) who depend on Rus…
>to further blackmail and coerce the European nations (particularly Germany and Italy) who depend on Russian gas to stop supporting Ukraine. How? This has literally removed their ability to blackmail Europe, as it's not even an option anymore.
As I wrote in the post above, they still retain the levarage through the Druzhba [1] and Yamal [2] pipelines (passing via Belarus and Ukraine). These combined have a MUCH greater capacity than Nord Stream 1.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Druzhba_pipeline [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yamal%E2%80%93Europe_pipeline
Re: Nordstream: An Accident?
#58Unqualified opinions are cheap. This random internet guy thinks sabotage is unlikely on the Nord Stream incident based on what is published on news websites? This has a weight of exactly zero.
My first question would be is random internet guy from one of the most likely suspects if this were sabotage? If so, their opinion is probably like many such opinions and based more on projection and defensive posturing than anything else.
Re: Nordstream: An Accident?
#59To be honest, people dont seem to care too much who did it. It was russia: what are they gonna do, sanction them? It was the US: what are russians gonna do, go to war with the west? Whoever did this, they solved a Godrian knot. Imagine going into winter with one pipeline being the lifeline of europe. [My conspiracy theory: this was a arranged via secret negotiations between US and Russia. They want an end to the war…
That was never a possible outcome. Pipelines transiting Belarus and Ukraine remain operational and AFAIK in-service. Who did it does matter. If Russia didn't self-sabotage they may feel some obligation to retaliate proportionally against someone else's energy infrastructure.
> If Russia didn't self-sabotage they may feel some obligation to retaliate proportionally against someone else's energy infrastructure.
Why do they have to retaliate against the energy infrastructure? I read some article saying it would be much easier for them to cut off some major internet cables between North America and Europe.
Seems plausible to me. It's probably much easier to do without trace and leave the enemy without a hard proof that they did it.
Re: Nordstream: An Accident?
#60So far the most plausible theory is that Russia sabotaged the pipelines for two reasons [1]: 1) to claim force majeure and avoid massive penalties Gazprom would have to pay for the breach of contract (we are talking billions here; now they just blame the West and good luck proving in courts who actually did it); 2) to further blackmail and coerce the European nations (particularly Germany and Italy) who depend on Rus…
Your theory just doesn't check out. With the pipelines destroyed, Russia can't blackmail the EU with energy as easily as they could before. And why would they destroy infrastructure that they poured billions into when they could have just turned off the taps any time they pleased? The pipelines now being destroyed is a really bad thing for Russia, a worse thing for the EU and a great situation for the USA (and Poland…
Could Putin-opposers in Russia potentially benefit by removing a series of future moves from the Russian government?