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Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

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Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#481

Post by kbelder »

holoduke wrote: post #441
NeverFade wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The next question is, who did it? The Russians. > It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational. Once their invasion faltered, and with the recent escalation, they had no hope of that happening. The current Russian regime will never be able to repair relations with the west to the extent that will allow the Nordstream pipelines to resume oper…

I would say the Ukrainians in cooperation with their biggest friends: the Polish government. It's in no interest for the Russians to destroy their own pipeline. They could as well just shut down the supply. I don't wanna speak to negative about Ukraine. But don't forget that the country belongs to the most corrupt and dirty countries in Europe. The state is controlled by oligarchs. In fact the Oligarchs brought the Z…

In my mind, the Ukrainians are the only party who could blow the pipelines without being dirty. It's a strategic asset of a country they're in an active war with.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#482

Post by [deleted] »

pphysch wrote: post #242
tgv wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

None of these make much sense. It's pretty idle to speculate, and the list is most likely incomplete and inaccurate. It only feeds the trolls. Then again, this whole thread is full of fingerpointing without evidence. If HN can't contain itself, what won't the twitter and facebook, and –may God forget– Truth Social do?

No evidence? What do you think Biden meant when he replied "I promise you, we will be able to do it" [1] when asked about stopping NS2 just before the war this year? Also note the recent pro-NS2 protests in Germany, whose energy costs have skyrocketed before winter. [1] - https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/07/biden-says-nord-stream-2-won...

[deleted]

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#483

Post by PartyOperator »

percevalve wrote: post #158
netsharc wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe the Russian military has some factions, and a faction is thinking surrender. Destroying the pipelines would advantage the faction against surrender, because then the surrenderists would be weaker, since they have less to offer to the EU. Which faction Putin would belong to is a different area of speculation. Or it's really Putin's way of saying "I'm not bluffing, in fact, here's how serious I am, see these pipe…

Reading that the Norway-Poland pipeline just happened to open today... Sounds like a loud a clear message to me, along the lines of "Gas pipeline seems to be very fragile around here, let's just hope nothing happens to yours". If you add factions into the mix, I would say that this might be what makes the most sense. https://www.euronews.com/2022/09/27/baltic-pipe-norway-polan...

There's also the fact that it just shakes things up a bit. Russia isn't benefiting from the pipeline now. Leaving it intact leaves long-term opportunities and risks that strategic actors with time on their side can turn against Russia (or against Putin in particular). Blowing a hole in the pipeline creates confusion, disruption and opportunities today. For what? Unclear, but Putin seems to thrive on short-term crises.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#485

Post by bulbosaur123 »

Tomte wrote: post #289
jcranmer wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming the explosions are relevant, some possible causes, ordered somewhat (but not entirely) by my personal estimation of likelihood: * Ecoterrorists -- I discount this mostly on the basis that they would have claimed responsibility by now. * NATO sabotage -- this reduces strategic options for several EU countries (albeit a strategic option that isn't really being exercised and is almost universally disfavored). *…

> Ukrainian sabotage -- pretty much the only actor for whom sabotage makes rational sense. That would be a tragic miscalculation. If it comes out that Ukraine is responsible, German public sentiment will turn hard . No more military shipments, maybe even rapproachement with Russia. If it's a state actor, I'd think about Poland first.

Why not USA? https://twitter.com/ah114088/status/1574435558675316737

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#486

Post by bulbosaur123 »

dmix wrote: post #403
SanjayMehta wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You left out the obvious culprit. Jump to 1:20. https://youtu.be/OS4O8rGRLf8

The US is close friends with many of the consumers of those gas lines. That makes as little sense as all the other options but even less so.

USA wants to exports its LNG to Europe. It makes a lot of economical sense.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#487

Post by gusgus01 »

hendrikrassmann wrote: post #436
twawaaay wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you realise the risks US would be taking? Like the end of NATO? I don't want to say US isn't making stupid things, but this would be a whole new level of stupid...

1. I'm not saying the US did it. 2. I just want to remind you, that you're talking about a country literally renaming their national dish to "freedom fries" over France not wanting to join in a war, started under provably false pretenses.

French fries are not the National Dish of the USA, and it was done in the cafeterias in Congress (as well as a few other zealous restaurants). But to portray it as a country renaming their national dish is an over-exaggeration.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/congress-french-freedom-fr...

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#488

Post by nix23 »

keewee7 wrote: post #445
origin_path wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It wasn't "settled for good", that's silly, it was still there pressurized and ready to go. Germany recently saw protests by people who wanted to open it, and some politicians saying it needed to be opened, and it is safe to assume that if things got really bad in Germany this winter they would have opened it. Clearly, whoever has attacked these pipelines knew perfectly well that the story about Russia being unwillin…

>Germany recently saw protests by people who wanted to open it, and some politicians saying it needed to be opened The protests were made up of AfD supporters and Russian/Serbian immigrants, and the the only politicians saying it needs to be opened are from the AfD. They are not representative of German public and political sentiments.

>the only politicians saying it needs to be opened are from the AfD.

Ah yeah Wagenknecht is part of the AfD now?

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#489

Post by [deleted] »

saiya-jin wrote: post #476
aredox wrote: post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is in Russia's interest: this is their last warning before the North Sea pipelines blow up too.

I'd vote for Russia too, not direct evidence obviously but makes more sense than anybody else. Elites who decide see that EU wants and will cut itself off from Russia anyway, just a question of when and its coming soon. So harsh punishment of this pesky EU right before winter starts to feel the consequences of daring to break away from Russian dependence. Russia made tons of money in past months on oil and gas due to…

[deleted]

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#490

Post by seydor »

tgv wrote: post #213
jcranmer wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming the explosions are relevant, some possible causes, ordered somewhat (but not entirely) by my personal estimation of likelihood: * Ecoterrorists -- I discount this mostly on the basis that they would have claimed responsibility by now. * NATO sabotage -- this reduces strategic options for several EU countries (albeit a strategic option that isn't really being exercised and is almost universally disfavored). *…

None of these make much sense. It's pretty idle to speculate, and the list is most likely incomplete and inaccurate. It only feeds the trolls. Then again, this whole thread is full of fingerpointing without evidence. If HN can't contain itself, what won't the twitter and facebook, and –may God forget– Truth Social do?

OK so instead of speculating , what are people to do? Stare with open mouths to what end?
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