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Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

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Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#281

Post by gpderetta »

NeverFade wrote: post #154
eloff wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So that doesn't look like an accident. I have difficulty imagining accidental ignition in an underwater gas pipeline. Where would the oxygen come from? Plus it's more than one explosion on the same day - can't be a coincidence. The next question is, who did it? It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational. They invested huge sums of money to b…

> The next question is, who did it? The Russians. > It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational. Once their invasion faltered, and with the recent escalation, they had no hope of that happening. The current Russian regime will never be able to repair relations with the west to the extent that will allow the Nordstream pipelines to resume oper…

> The current Russian regime will never be able to repair relations with the west to the extent that will allow the Nordstream pipelines to resume operations

They did after the cold war.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#282

Post by apexalpha »

Torkel wrote: post #193

”Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity”… Does anything happen to gas in a pipeline that makes pressure increase? Could it be a lack of or poor monitoring of pressure that caused it?

Sure it could. But on both NS1 and NS2? At the same time? Very unlikely.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#283

Post by henearkr »

Mizza wrote: post #275
henearkr wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "ecoterrorist" option is just ridiculous, the methane leak is disaster for the climate.

It's going to be burned into CO2 anyway. If anything, methane is a bit better than CO2 in the long run.

> It's going to be burned into CO2 anyway.

No, because if the pipeline is not used, there is an incentive to slow down methane extraction and transport on the Russian side.

But if they can send it in the pipe and make it leak to piss the EU countries off, on the other hand...

> If anything, methane is a bit better than CO2 in the long run.

Hmm... I wonder where you read that because actually it's the contrary: https://www.epa.gov/gmi/importance-methane

After degradation, the methane is transformed in the exact same CO2 it would have become if someone had burnt it, thus it still the same long term pita in addition to the short term headache it creates.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#284

Post by potatototoo99 »

ericmay wrote: post #151
fuoqi wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it cuts a huge temptation for Germans to find some compromise with Russia and allows them to sell LNG for huge profits?

Doesn't pass the smell test (also we're talking about the entire EU having issues not just Germany). Gigantic risk for the US and would eventually be found out which would destroy any semblance of relations with the EU and significantly strengthen Russia's hand. US companies (and others) are going to sell LNG to Europe for huge profits anyway. These pipelines weren't deliving gas anyway The US would prefer energy mar…

Europe knows the US mistreats us, it is no secret. Honestly I wouldn't be surprised to learn it was a UK submarine under US instructions for example. We know how the US spy on us, spy on private companies to favor their own, mess with our currencies, isolate us and exploit us. Uses us as cannon fodder. We remember all the times the US was caught spying on our leaders, deciding our elections, threatening invasion and abducting people. We have seen the news and read the cables. We remember when Obama told us they would not kill US citizens without a trial, only foreigners like ourselves. We know how foreign policy works. One day maybe we'll have the abnormality of leaders that work on the best interest of their people, maybe then the US will learn the world remembers. Nothing lasts forever.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#285

Post by Anderkent »

henearkr wrote: post #264
411111111111111 wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ecoterrorism doesnt mean that its beneficial for the environment. It means that they want to terrorize polluters, regardless of the consequences.

They have no incentive to do actions that damage the environment: Ecology activist organizations are funded by donations, which would dry up completely at the instant they are proven to be involved in such a disastrous leak.

hasn't stopped 'green' parties from shutting down nuclear power, so it's all a question of PR

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#286

Post by origin_path »

formerly_proven wrote: post #202
eloff wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So that doesn't look like an accident. I have difficulty imagining accidental ignition in an underwater gas pipeline. Where would the oxygen come from? Plus it's more than one explosion on the same day - can't be a coincidence. The next question is, who did it? It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational. They invested huge sums of money to b…

> The next question is, who did it? It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational. They invested huge sums of money to build it after all. NS2 never entering service was settled for good over 200 days ago. NS1 has been shut down by Russia, but it was at best dubious before this whether it would ever be used operationally again.

It wasn't "settled for good", that's silly, it was still there pressurized and ready to go. Germany recently saw protests by people who wanted to open it, and some politicians saying it needed to be opened, and it is safe to assume that if things got really bad in Germany this winter they would have opened it.

Clearly, whoever has attacked these pipelines knew perfectly well that the story about Russia being unwilling to sell gas was nonsense, and also knew perfectly well that European sanctions would collapse in the face of rotating blackouts. Apparently someone very powerful cares more about fucking Russia than fucking Europeans.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#287

Post by sidibe »

cm2187 wrote: post #4

I read talks of sabotage but I struggle to understand the point, surely russia wouldn’t sabotage their own pipelines (they can just shut them) and I understand they are not in use right now. In fact doesn’t that mean that the pipeline will be flooded? Is that recoverable?

The most convincing "Russia did it motive" I've seen so far (and I don't believe it but it's more plausible than other reasons I've seen that Russia would do it) is Putin doesn't want any of the elites around him thinking they can remove him and then get their money flowing quickly again.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#289

Post by Tomte »

jcranmer wrote: post #185
tpmx wrote: post #54

The Swedish national seismic network picked up two explosions within kilometers of the reported gas leak locations yesterday. The time of the first explosion: Yesterday, Monday morning at 02:03 am, second one Monday evening at 7:04pm (local time, CEST). The reports of the gas leaks came at 1:52pm and 8:41pm, respectively - by means of ships reporting bubbling at the surface level. One of the two events registered at…

Assuming the explosions are relevant, some possible causes, ordered somewhat (but not entirely) by my personal estimation of likelihood: * Ecoterrorists -- I discount this mostly on the basis that they would have claimed responsibility by now. * NATO sabotage -- this reduces strategic options for several EU countries (albeit a strategic option that isn't really being exercised and is almost universally disfavored). *…

> Ukrainian sabotage -- pretty much the only actor for whom sabotage makes rational sense.

That would be a tragic miscalculation. If it comes out that Ukraine is responsible, German public sentiment will turn hard.

No more military shipments, maybe even rapproachement with Russia.

If it's a state actor, I'd think about Poland first.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#290

Post by gpderetta »

Tade0 wrote: post #216
kstenerud wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia turned the taps off in order to raise pressure for European concessions in order to turn them back on again. Germany has been tepid in its Ukrainian support because they want to have their cake and eat it, too. Now they can't no matter what. With the pipes permanently broken (at least for this winter), Russia has lost that leverage.

> Russia turned the taps off in order to raise pressure for European concessions in order to turn them back on again. I don't want to sound dismissive, but that's a characteristically western take on things. Nord Stream 2 was largely redundant and Russia missed the window to use those pipelines against Germany by allowing it to fill it's storage. Russia is no stranger to causing damage to itself just to ensure that t…

North Stream 1 was also hit.
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