Earlier quoted context omitted.
Act of war by USA? (equivalent if done through ally)
Why would the US do that?
Biden actually said we would halt NS2 back in February.
https://twitter.com/abc/status/1490792461979078662?s=46&t=kJ...
Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea
191–200 of 1001 posts
Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea
#192Earlier quoted context omitted.
So that doesn't look like an accident. I have difficulty imagining accidental ignition in an underwater gas pipeline. Where would the oxygen come from? Plus it's more than one explosion on the same day - can't be a coincidence. The next question is, who did it? It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational. They invested huge sums of money to b…
> The next question is, who did it? The Russians. > It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational. Once their invasion faltered, and with the recent escalation, they had no hope of that happening. The current Russian regime will never be able to repair relations with the west to the extent that will allow the Nordstream pipelines to resume oper…
That doesn't make any sense. If the Russians wanted to stop the gas supply, they could just stop supplying gas. And they had already stopped.
Destroying the infrastructure doesn't give Russia an additional capability (degree of freedom). It removes the degree of freedom to restart supplying gas. And thus removes this option for Russia to use as a bargaining chip in negotiations.
I would say this is either the US, Ukraine or a EU state. To remove the threat that the EU later in the winter falters in negotations due to public pressure to turn the heat back on (literally).
The US has the additional incentive that they want to become the only gas provider to the EU via LNG terminals. That gives them an edge over the EU both economically and politically.
The Ukraine has the additional incentive that the remaining pipelines from Russia to the EU run through Ukraine. Removing the alternative options keeps the EU allied through dependence.
Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea
#193”Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity”…
Does anything happen to gas in a pipeline that makes pressure increase? Could it be a lack of or poor monitoring of pressure that caused it?
Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea
#194Earlier quoted context omitted.
Oh please!! ... The US invests trillions in reducing global warming yet you think they'd leak thousands of tons of methane in the air just like that??? .......
Do you think some spook cares about reducing global warming?
Yes, basically the Biden government has been elected on this particular point.
The whole free world wants to reduce global warming, so democratic governments want too, in agreement with the population wish.
Same in France, where ecology has been a huge point of debate during the elections.
Same in many countries, etc...
Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea
#195Earlier quoted context omitted.
So that doesn't look like an accident. I have difficulty imagining accidental ignition in an underwater gas pipeline. Where would the oxygen come from? Plus it's more than one explosion on the same day - can't be a coincidence. The next question is, who did it? It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational. They invested huge sums of money to b…
> The next question is, who did it? The Russians. > It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational. Once their invasion faltered, and with the recent escalation, they had no hope of that happening. The current Russian regime will never be able to repair relations with the west to the extent that will allow the Nordstream pipelines to resume oper…
The Russians blew up their own brand-new pipeline, which they spend billions creating (jointly with the Germans) and is one of the few major "hopes" to salvage that relationship, especially as winter dawns.
That's frankly absurd.
Russia almost certainly sabotaged a LNG terminal in Texas a few months ago (industrial cyberattack). This act was almost certainly done by Washington or their proxies. It drives the wedge further between EU and Russia and makes the EU further dependent on Washington. The cui bono is pretty clear.
Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea
#196If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on Poland. The Polish prime minister immediately called "sabotage" and fingered Russia, while everyone else is still saying "it could be sabotage but we need to investigate first". Russia wants the taps capable of being turned ON at their discretion, not permanently broken. This hurts their bargaining position in a big way because they've just lost their biggest source of lev…
As a Pole, you're giving our elected representatives and secret services/special forces too much credit. Especially the latter were gutted by this government in its current and previous(2005-2007) incarnation under the guise of "decommunization" and replaced with people without the, to put it lightly, necessary qualifications. I mean, quite a few government motorcades got into accidents because the poor fool behind t…
Poland has an ideal device for this sabotage
https://www.gospodarkamorska.pl/zdjecia/artykul/25081/135779...
Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea
#197Earlier quoted context omitted.
> RUptured Hard to believe, they have nothing to gain from this.
Russia has a LOT to gain from this. 1) They are running out of time on this war of aggression, and this will force gas price action NOW, not in December. They can sell gas through other pipelines to the EU if it accepts it. 2) Norway just TODAY inaugurated a new pipeline to the EU. Norway has warned about unaccounted-for drone activity around it's oil and gas fields. Russia is likely sending a message: "Nice pipeline…
Fair call Russia might have done it for those and other reasons.
However
1) Was there any gas flowing at all? Sure anything can cause speculation.
2) This also makes it a convenient timing for the western allies to do it, including Norway. Germany is way too complacent with Russian for US liking.
3) Such more so the US in terms of operatives in Europe and Russia. Who says the US is sensitive to gas prices in Europe?
Also Biden said they would do it. And at this point capabilities are not laking in either side.
But no we're not going to know for sure for a while.
Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea
#198Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sabotage makes sense, but by whom? Surely Russia has no interest in sabotaging the pipelines that give them leverage over Europe. Without the pipelines, the whole "you lift the sanctions, we deliver natural gas" game is gone. Even if unlikely to happen, it would have been an important psychological and political factor over the winter. Meanwhile European powers don't seem to have an incentive. They would benefit from…
> Surely Russia has no interest in sabotaging the pipelines that give them leverage over Europe. Does this not give them even more leverage over Europe? There's no longer simply a switch that Russia can flip to resume the flow of gas into Europe and previously only Nordstream 1 was shut down (please correct me if I'm wrong). It's not so hard to imagine tactics to compel Russia to flip a switch, but repairing these pi…
Nah, it's quite the opposite.
It's getting cold now, there are internal pressures in many EU countries to fuck this war and sit down with putin and make an agreement so russia can reopen the gas lines. Putin knows that, and probably has a list of conditions ready to reopen them.
If the pipes are destroyed, even if people protest, there's no way to get russian gas again (atleast not fast and cheaply), and no incentive for EU to talk with putin... and the only ones profiteering from this are americans, selling overpriced gas to europe, even worsening the EU-Russia relations and destroying the european economy.
Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea
#199The Swedish national seismic network picked up two explosions within kilometers of the reported gas leak locations yesterday. The time of the first explosion: Yesterday, Monday morning at 02:03 am, second one Monday evening at 7:04pm (local time, CEST). The reports of the gas leaks came at 1:52pm and 8:41pm, respectively - by means of ships reporting bubbling at the surface level. One of the two events registered at…
Assuming the explosions are relevant, some possible causes, ordered somewhat (but not entirely) by my personal estimation of likelihood: * Ecoterrorists -- I discount this mostly on the basis that they would have claimed responsibility by now. * NATO sabotage -- this reduces strategic options for several EU countries (albeit a strategic option that isn't really being exercised and is almost universally disfavored). *…
The "ecoterrorist" option is just ridiculous, the methane leak is disaster for the climate.
Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea
#200If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on Poland. The Polish prime minister immediately called "sabotage" and fingered Russia, while everyone else is still saying "it could be sabotage but we need to investigate first". Russia wants the taps capable of being turned ON at their discretion, not permanently broken. This hurts their bargaining position in a big way because they've just lost their biggest source of lev…
ed: got this wrong, ignore!
> Russia wants the taps capable of being turned ON at their discretion, not permanently broken. This hurts their bargaining position in a big way because they've just lost their biggest source of leverage against Germany.
As I understand it this leak is in the new NordStream 2 pipeline and NordStrem 1 is unaffected, so they can still supply gas in to the EU through NS1.