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The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

adamtooze.substack.com

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Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#301

Post by SturgeonsLaw »

avn2109 wrote: post #291
SturgeonsLaw wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the nations involved want it to be one, sure. There have been incidents of militaries shooting down passenger jets, which were all but swept under the rug.

This sounds plausible but can you provide examples/links to wiki pages etc?

@throwawaymaths basically answered the question how I would. Also, just to clarify my use of "swept under the rug", my implication is that when it's not politically convenient for the parties to make a big deal out of an incident, they simply choose not to use it as a media prop to push their agenda.

There's a list here that would be a reasonable starting point for any further digging you might wish to do:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_airliner_shootdown_inc...

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#302

Post by harambae »

polskibus wrote: post #179

All it takes for a world power to be on its knees is a couple of years of dry and hot weather. It kills agriculture, nuclear and solar power plants, usually also wind ones. A combination of that and covid and war induced logistics disruptions is what is hammering EU now. It is not a single cause but a multitude.

Why does dry and hot weather kill solar power? (Is there something non-intuitive about solar panels and too much heat?)

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#303

Post by ddorian43 »

sleepdreamy wrote: post #299
xxpor wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the US is the outlier with the 30 year fixed rates. Canada not only has variable rate mortgages, but instead of the rate just adjusting, they essentially have 5 year mortgages, with a balloon payment at the end. If you can't roll it over into a new load (say because your debt to income is now too high), you're screwed.

Wow - this is mind boggling. Also..kind of scary? I guess any big financial decision is scary but I didn't know that was America exclusive. Do you know if European countries have fixed rates or does it go up ever 5 years or so

Europe is like Canada. Often there is 3 or 5 years of fixed, but then it's often euribor 12month + spread. Often in Albania it's euribor 12M + 3 or 4.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#304

Post by polskibus »

harambae wrote: post #302
polskibus wrote: post #179

All it takes for a world power to be on its knees is a couple of years of dry and hot weather. It kills agriculture, nuclear and solar power plants, usually also wind ones. A combination of that and covid and war induced logistics disruptions is what is hammering EU now. It is not a single cause but a multitude.

Why does dry and hot weather kill solar power? (Is there something non-intuitive about solar panels and too much heat?)

Their efficiency drops with each extra celsius degree above a certain temperature threshold, exact numbers depend on the model. See for example:

https://www.bostonsolar.us/solar-blog-resource-center/blog/h...

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#305

Post by avn2109 »

throwawaymaths wrote: post #293
avn2109 wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This sounds plausible but can you provide examples/links to wiki pages etc?

Off the top of my head: Korean air lines flight over Russia, us shooting down Iranian jet in the gulf, Russia shooting down Malaysian air over Ukraine, Iran shooting down a Ukrainian jet over itself. I presume gp means Not swept under the rug in terms of information suppression, swept under the rug in terms of very little diplomatic fallout

Makes sense so far, but do you guys have flight numbers/dates/names of Iranian vessels etc?

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#306

Post by conductr »

groby_b wrote: post #245
conductr wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry I thought this was an economic conversation, I’m not really debating how best to manage the disease at this stage, but if X deaths a year becomes part of the run rate economics should normalize. > normalization of mask wearing in public indoor settings. However, I am curious how this is not normalized now? It’s personal choice where I live and nobody blinks twice if you want to wear it. And my state is full of…

I also expect other people to wear pants in public, and if they don't want to, they can stay at home. There is such a thing as collective responsibility and a social compact.

Oh, I see and think we’re just mincing words then. I think this is much closer to mandatory, law, requiring, etc than “normalization” which to me just means people don’t look at you weird for doing it. It says nothing about an expectation that they should be doing it too.

For example I could care less about someone wearing a mask if they want. I am not staying home for not wearing a mask. If I’m reading you right, you’d want me to stay home. So, we’re pretty far from any type of social compact and IMO have no hope for getting there given so many more people feel much more extreme about it than myself.

Social compact is an agreement and nobody is agreeing on this. Somehow everyone mostly agrees with pants.

Not to make it a personal attack, but I really find it strange how the “extreme measures” cohort of people on Covid and risks are still at it with this type of stuff. The news cycle on Covid is over. The turmoil is still happening but for most people the disease is not a daily concern anymore. They’ve resumed their lives. Are you still hoping things like mandatory masks become a thing? Do you really believe that’s even tenable? On a global scale? I never viewed that as particularly possible given how much cooperation would be required.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#307

Post by tel »

lupire wrote: post #254
tel wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The USG massively subsidizes home ownership. The burden is passed down to taxpayers, but also may cause a drag on the global economy due to lopsided interest rate hedging.

USG massively subsidizes home debtorship, driving prices up to benefit legacy landowners. It's not at all clear whether the policy actually helps ownership.

That's correct, and a fair refinement.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#308

Post by JPKab »

drekk wrote: post #203
JPKab wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mexico will be fine as well. North America is in a pretty good place compared to the rest of the world when it comes to energy/food/labor demographics. China is, unfortunately, a long way from the competent leadership of Hu Jintao and the other previous post-Mao leaders. Unlike the previous leaders (primarily selected on merit), who WANTED to prevent another Mao-like cult of personality, Xi is a deeply-insecure man w…

China has 4x the population of the US. Abandoning zero COVID as a policy would lead to millions of deaths. How can you call SinoVax a failure when all of the non-mRNA vaccines perform similarly? The US has more COVID deaths than China has had cases. That's shameful, especially when the US sat on enough mRNA vaccines to completely immunize our population 9x over. Countries like Argentina that were guinea pigs for the…

"The US has more COVID deaths than China has had cases."

You really believe that? In that case I'm sure you also believe that no Uyghurs have been harmed as well.

91 percent of Chinese people have absolutely no say in their government based on statistics of membership in the CCP. Nobody is saying they are inept drones but they certainly get disappeared if they protest their government.

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