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The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

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Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#201

Post by lotsofpulp »

bilsbie wrote: post #182
UncleOxidant wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, bakeries are energy intensive. Methane generation from sewage would be one way to (relatively quickly^) replace some of the natural gas that was coming from Russia. And as a side benefit fertilizer could be produced from the same sewage. ^ even so it would probably take a couple of years to get methane generation going at scale.

On the other hand we’ve managed to have bakeries for 1000s of years before most modern energy sources were discovered.

Unless those bakeries can deliver baked goods at similar cost to bakeries using modern energy sources, the problem still stands of the populace having a downward shift in consumption and expectations of their quality of life , which typically has political ramifications.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#202

Post by [deleted] »

xxpor wrote: post #168
nus07 wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does India do in all this? Their software development salaries in tier 1 cities are close to 100k or more. Lots of friends going back .

100K USD? That's wild. If you look at the GDP per capita ratios, that's like a dev in the US making $3.3 million

[deleted]

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#203

Post by drekk »

JPKab wrote: post #141
spywaregorilla wrote: post #30

I think the US (and Canada) just needs to ride the tide and let all the other boats sink. Pretty much everyone else is screwed. I think people are underestimating the second order effects of the US still having stable energy and farming capabilities. We'll see more stuff get done here and less stuff done elsewhere. Unemployment will be great here no matter what we do really. It will suffer in other countries. Though…

Mexico will be fine as well. North America is in a pretty good place compared to the rest of the world when it comes to energy/food/labor demographics. China is, unfortunately, a long way from the competent leadership of Hu Jintao and the other previous post-Mao leaders. Unlike the previous leaders (primarily selected on merit), who WANTED to prevent another Mao-like cult of personality, Xi is a deeply-insecure man w…

China has 4x the population of the US. Abandoning zero COVID as a policy would lead to millions of deaths. How can you call SinoVax a failure when all of the non-mRNA vaccines perform similarly? The US has more COVID deaths than China has had cases. That's shameful, especially when the US sat on enough mRNA vaccines to completely immunize our population 9x over. Countries like Argentina that were guinea pigs for the Pfizer, Moderna, J&J vaccines couldn't get enough access because IP law is more important than stopping a global pandemic that disrupts manufacturing.

Countries like China and Cuba had to manufacture their own vaccines without the new mRNA process and it was less effective as a result but still better than nothing. Cuba even had to get permission from the US to import syringes to be able to administer the vaccine they manufactured. How is that defensible?

All of this without even saying that the CPC has an incredibly high approval rating (https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/07/long-term-sur...), even when the polling is done by outside entities and anonymized. It seems incredibly condescending to treat a billion+ humans as inept drones under the iron grip of a tyrant simply because they're geopolitical rivals.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#204

Post by lotsofpulp »

kylehotchkiss wrote: post #192
ddorian43 wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nah. Canada real estate has to take the hit.

Canada's real estate situation makes no sense to me as a US citizen. * Plenty of land * Plenty of wood * Plenty of sources of fresh water * Pro-immigrantion policy could reducing construction costs * Seemingly high rate of 'cottage' ownership which seems like a second home to me, which seems to indicate abundance? * Remote working situation good * Fiber can't be that hard to roll out to new places right next to roads…

> * People don't seem to mind the weather too much?

I would start with questioning this assumption.

Also, based on their terrible choices of ISP and mobile networks, I would question this one too:

> Fiber can't be that hard to roll out to new places right next to roads plus Starlink exists

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#205

Post by TurkishPoptart »

drekk wrote: post #203
JPKab wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mexico will be fine as well. North America is in a pretty good place compared to the rest of the world when it comes to energy/food/labor demographics. China is, unfortunately, a long way from the competent leadership of Hu Jintao and the other previous post-Mao leaders. Unlike the previous leaders (primarily selected on merit), who WANTED to prevent another Mao-like cult of personality, Xi is a deeply-insecure man w…

China has 4x the population of the US. Abandoning zero COVID as a policy would lead to millions of deaths. How can you call SinoVax a failure when all of the non-mRNA vaccines perform similarly? The US has more COVID deaths than China has had cases. That's shameful, especially when the US sat on enough mRNA vaccines to completely immunize our population 9x over. Countries like Argentina that were guinea pigs for the…

Firstly, the mRNA "vaccines" do not produce any sort of immunity. AFAIK the Chinese vaccines actually work like traditional vaccines (i.e. cowpox particles to produce smallpox immunity). We really don't know the Covid death rate in China, whether there are excess deaths from Covid infection directly or as a result of the CCP's cruel and barbaric lockdown measures, which have caused reports of starvation in places like Shanghai.

I also would not extrapolate public opinion about the CCP based on polling, even if it's done by outside entities and anonymized. Any Chinese with an IQ higher than room temperature would know better than to speak out against the CCP in a western-designed poll. Xi Jinping is leading his country like Stalin...they have GULAGs for dissenters.

So, I don't disagree with you. I just think culturally, the Chinese are rightly reticent to express any antigovernmental sentiment, for good reason. Let's remember that the Chinese people have been occupied and oppressed by the Chinese Communist Party since the Chinese civil war. I pray for their liberation.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#206

Post by csours »

t_mann wrote: post #80
csours wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I ask this question every so often on economic threads - Are jobs created or discovered? What field of study is most associated with "new jobs"?

The fields are macroeconomics and labor economics. I don't understand your other question, so it's hard to answer. What do you mean by "discovered"? Discovered by whom, the employer or the the employee? But you may be interested in knowing that models of labor markets are often based on matching models - you've got two groups (employers, employees) and everyobdy is trying to find {one,many} members of the other group…

Thank you. I found this deck which really helped.

https://economics.mit.edu/files/7400

and Open Coursework page

https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/14-661-labor-economics-i-fall-20...

A labor matching model is better because it recognizes the need for a worker and a job opening, and for those to find each other.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#207

Post by nie100sowny »

munificent wrote: post #155
mistrial9 wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Crisis is good for the economy in the long term. there is some name for this kind of dismissive optimism, but I do not know it.. suggestions? I hear this kind of thing from the Cato Institute Human Progress people, who have trillions in paper wealth and the Oil and Gas economy to defend. What could go wrong?

A forest fire might be good for the forest as a whole, but that's a cold consolation to any particular tree or rabbit who ends up turned to cinder.

A better analogy would be a strong wind collapsing big and old trees :)

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#208

Post by conductr »

groby_b wrote: post #171
conductr wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not that I like it but, I happen to think it's just a new normal as well and if everyone starts behaving as if it's normal then the impact on global economics when compared to a similar period should be rather normal. Continuing lockdowns and other things that impact supply chains/production are examples of behaving like it's not normal. They will likely continue to some degree despite my opinions.

Neither deaths nor disability can be wished away by "just behaving as if it's normal". As for "continuing lockdowns" - most of the western world hasn't had a single actual lockdown. So let's not pretend that's the issue, or a desired approach to the problem. What is needed is - data transparency, instead of reduced data collection. - targeted measures, instead of blanket measures. Utilizing the above data, and focusi…

Sorry I thought this was an economic conversation, I’m not really debating how best to manage the disease at this stage, but if X deaths a year becomes part of the run rate economics should normalize.

> normalization of mask wearing in public indoor settings.

However, I am curious how this is not normalized now? It’s personal choice where I live and nobody blinks twice if you want to wear it. And my state is full of antimaskers. The issue becomes when you expect other people to wear it and they don’t want to.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#209

Post by WalterBright »

marcosdumay wrote: post #159
WalterBright wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Central economic planning still doesn't work.

Well, the part of the China's economy that works isn't centrally planned. They do seem to have a very planned part (looks like so from the other side of the world), that isn't internationally competitive. But simply claiming that their economy is planned is clearly wrong.

> But simply claiming that their economy is planned is clearly wrong.

I didn't claim that. I was pointing out that the centrally planned part isn't working. China has a mixed economy.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#210

Post by WalterBright »

thfuran wrote: post #176
WalterBright wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, the chaos of the free market works very, very well at producing the most prosperous countries ever seen.

Which country are you referring to? I rather suspect that their government is a good deal less hands off than you're implying.

The US is a fine example, especially the first century.
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