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The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

adamtooze.substack.com

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Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#281

Post by LeChuck »

imtringued wrote: post #273
mytailorisrich wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe has plenty of energy. They sit on huge gas reserves, for instance, but have decided to effectively ban using them by banning fracking while still being extremely dependent on gas. And not only that but most of gas imports came from a geostrategic adversary... This is all self-inflicted. You can't prevent people and countries from shooting themselves in the foot.

Netherlands stopped fracking because their population density is too high to just sweep the environmental damaged caused by fracking under the rug, the only thing that is self inflicted are the now unavoidable earthquakes in the Netherlands.

The Netherlands did not stop fracking. The earthquakes in the Netherlands are not caused by fracking.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#282

Post by ZeroGravitas »

tuatoru wrote: post #211
ZeroGravitas wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have a source for his Ukraine invasion claims? The last time someone mentioned this, they said he'd predicted they'd invade in 2014, which is after they'd invaded and annexed Crimea.

Well, they did invade Donetsk and Luhansk in 2014. I don't know if that was after his prediction, though.

Invasions were early 2014, book with "prediction" was published November 2014.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#283

Post by ZeroGravitas »

buscoquadnary wrote: post #216
ZeroGravitas wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have a source for his Ukraine invasion claims? The last time someone mentioned this, they said he'd predicted they'd invade in 2014, which is after they'd invaded and annexed Crimea.

After I got turned on to Petar Zeihan the first thing I did was went back and watched his older talks, after all plenty of people can make good sounding predictions, first you want to see what he was saying before to see his track record. I found a talk form 2018 in which he said there are going to be 3 major bush wars of global import, Ukraine-Russia, Iran-Saudi Arabia, and China-Indian Ocean. So far Ukraine has pan…

He predicted the Iran-Saudi Arabia conflict thats been going on for decades?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Saudi_Arabia_pr...

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#284

Post by WalterBright »

chubs wrote: post #274
WalterBright wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, the chaos of the free market works very, very well at producing the most prosperous countries ever seen.

Lovely to hear this kind of thing on HN :) The free market looks like 'chaos' because it has millions of people making economic prioritisation decisions, as opposed to a control economy with few people. Millions of people making prioritising inputs vs a few, leads to a far more effectively prioritised economy, surely. And the proof is in the pudding!

Sometimes I think I'm the only person on HN who writes anything positive about free markets, which are the source of the great wealth in the United States and some other countries.

I really don't understand the romance with leftism, where the historical record of its implementations is pretty miserable.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#285

Post by ZeroGravitas »

WalterBright wrote: post #278
hakfoo wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Correlation may not imply causality here. Many of the most successful free market economies embody the concept of "was born on third base and thinks he hit a triple." The United States and Canada had relatively easy access to territorial expansion, which offered them huge amounts of fertile, temperate land and almost any natural resource needed. They also started with a high-immigrant and relatively educated populati…

Russia has even more natural resources. Doesn't seem to help. > if you dropped (say) the American Founders in 1917 Moscow or 1948 Peking, would they do any better? Absolutely. See Hong Kong, Japan & Germany after WW2, Chile does better when they go free market, does worse when they veer back left, etc. South American countries have vast resources, but little prosperity. US immigration consisted of people in abject po…

Pinochet's economic policy is highly overrated:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32765771

> Mining a bunch of copper, helping your cronies get rich, and pumping up land prices is not a "miracle".

And that's from an ideologically aligned source.

> This record is less bad than Allende’s, but it’s far from what I’d call good, and it’s certainly nothing that anyone should call an economic “miracle”.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#286

Post by spiralx »

WalterBright wrote: post #278
hakfoo wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Correlation may not imply causality here. Many of the most successful free market economies embody the concept of "was born on third base and thinks he hit a triple." The United States and Canada had relatively easy access to territorial expansion, which offered them huge amounts of fertile, temperate land and almost any natural resource needed. They also started with a high-immigrant and relatively educated populati…

Russia has even more natural resources. Doesn't seem to help. > if you dropped (say) the American Founders in 1917 Moscow or 1948 Peking, would they do any better? Absolutely. See Hong Kong, Japan & Germany after WW2, Chile does better when they go free market, does worse when they veer back left, etc. South American countries have vast resources, but little prosperity. US immigration consisted of people in abject po…

But Russia has very limited access to viable shipping lanes and huge geographic barriers to shipping things overland. Why do you think Crimea is of such importance to Russia?

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#287

Post by Bombthecat »

mancerayder wrote: post #198
Bombthecat wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe missed the train and train doesn't reverse when missing the station.. Energy and infrastructure are the venes of Europe which clocked and overstretched to the max. Something will need to give and it already begins by small bakeries closing and more to follow.. It wont end well. I don't believe we will have any growth in Europe for the next 3 years. Who is going to invest in Europe if energy is literally unpred…

Are people blaming environmentalists for attacking nuclear energy all these years? France stuck to it, but Germany seems to have bowed to pressure. The lesson is always to dismiss idealists and ideologues in politics.

Half truth, the green parties wanted a replacement, solar and wind.

They only wanted gas as a switch off / switch on power source, you cant do that with nuclear.

Instead, people protested also against wind and solar and we switched to cheap gas from Russia.

Which the green parties didn't want at all..

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#288

Post by concinds »

joshlemer wrote: post #125
landemva wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Much manufacturing left the West to relocate the pollution. Pollution colonialism.

Please. China and others who benefited from trade with the West could have chosen not to allow industries to operate in their countries. They prioritized the economic benefits over environmental concerns all on their own, it's not colonialism.

And the argument there is that poor countries being forced to keep their populations in poverty to protect the environment while the West could develop while polluting as much as it wants, is unfair. They can easily argue that the West has a duty to help fund the Global South's clean energy infrastructure. The West deliberately sought out this oursourcing, and benefited from it just as much as China and the South did.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#289

Post by SturgeonsLaw »

Aerroon wrote: post #268
ethbr0 wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given today's low cargo crew counts, it isn't crazy to think about the calculus of sinking cargo ships vs fighting an actual war, in order to prove ones seriousness. Say, because Taiwan was being invaded? And in the form of a blockade, of course.

But isn't sinking a civilian vessel itself an express path to war? The RMS Lusitania and the US's entry into WW1 spring to mind.

If the nations involved want it to be one, sure. There have been incidents of militaries shooting down passenger jets, which were all but swept under the rug.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#290

Post by spywaregorilla »

elcritch wrote: post #266
seibelj wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All the trinkets that could be offshored were done already. What the US manufactures now is high-end (chips) or protected by tariffs (cars). A lot of virtual stuff like software and call centers. I think we've hollowed out so much there isn't really much left to offshore.

Don’t forget the US still excels at high speed pizza delivery. ;) Odd but that Snowcrash reference seems oddly prescient given the rise of Uber, Instacart, GrubHub, etc. Not quite pizza delivery but similar genres.

If it were snowcrash, however, there'd be a lot slow-ass uber drivers bleeding out on the road.
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