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The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

adamtooze.substack.com

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Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#211

Post by tuatoru »

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #177
throwawaymaths wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well he does get credence for predicting invasion of Ukraine (which was also thought to be comically apocalyptic). Twice. He's been remarkably consistent in calling bad times for china and it's certainly gotten worse over there in the last year. I think there are a few other things that have lined up, like Sri Lanka collapse being a bellwether for his forecasts.

Do you have a source for his Ukraine invasion claims? The last time someone mentioned this, they said he'd predicted they'd invade in 2014, which is after they'd invaded and annexed Crimea.

Well, they did invade Donetsk and Luhansk in 2014. I don't know if that was after his prediction, though.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#212

Post by tuatoru »

csours wrote: post #37
spywaregorilla wrote: post #30

I think the US (and Canada) just needs to ride the tide and let all the other boats sink. Pretty much everyone else is screwed. I think people are underestimating the second order effects of the US still having stable energy and farming capabilities. We'll see more stuff get done here and less stuff done elsewhere. Unemployment will be great here no matter what we do really. It will suffer in other countries. Though…

I ask this question every so often on economic threads - Are jobs created or discovered? What field of study is most associated with "new jobs"?

What is the difference between "created" and "discovered" when it comes to jobs?

Was "social media manager" created or discovered? How about (to take an older example) telex operator?

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#213

Post by humanlion87 »

_whiteCaps_ wrote: post #124
dragontamer wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is common to have adjustable rates in Canada, while the standard in USA is fixed rates. So in these times where rates go up, it makes Canadian homeowners suddenly have to pay more for their houses they're already living in.

https://www.cibc.com/en/personal-banking/mortgages/resource-... In variable rate mortgages, the amount going to principal vs interest changes. The monthly payments remain constant.

Until you hit a trigger rate (depending on the mortgage specifics) at which point you have to start increasing your payments.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#214

Post by tuatoru »

WalterBright wrote: post #130
spywaregorilla wrote: post #30

I think the US (and Canada) just needs to ride the tide and let all the other boats sink. Pretty much everyone else is screwed. I think people are underestimating the second order effects of the US still having stable energy and farming capabilities. We'll see more stuff get done here and less stuff done elsewhere. Unemployment will be great here no matter what we do really. It will suffer in other countries. Though…

Central economic planning still doesn't work.

The specific failure modes we keep seeing are 1) having a country run by an autocrat who does not listen to advice, and ruthlessly stifles all dissent; and 2) using measures as targets.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#215

Post by gambiting »

xxpor wrote: post #170
sleepdreamy wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The allure of home ownership in America is the fixed mortgage rate among other things. (Rent goes up each year, without question). I purchased a home at the start of this mess with an 2.6%. Right now it's hovering around 6%. I would say I MASSIVELY lucked out. Does Canada not fix the rate? I am confused -

No, the US is the outlier with the 30 year fixed rates. Canada not only has variable rate mortgages, but instead of the rate just adjusting, they essentially have 5 year mortgages, with a balloon payment at the end. If you can't roll it over into a new load (say because your debt to income is now too high), you're screwed.

Sounds the same as UK then.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#216

Post by buscoquadnary »

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #177
throwawaymaths wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well he does get credence for predicting invasion of Ukraine (which was also thought to be comically apocalyptic). Twice. He's been remarkably consistent in calling bad times for china and it's certainly gotten worse over there in the last year. I think there are a few other things that have lined up, like Sri Lanka collapse being a bellwether for his forecasts.

Do you have a source for his Ukraine invasion claims? The last time someone mentioned this, they said he'd predicted they'd invade in 2014, which is after they'd invaded and annexed Crimea.

After I got turned on to Petar Zeihan the first thing I did was went back and watched his older talks, after all plenty of people can make good sounding predictions, first you want to see what he was saying before to see his track record.

I found a talk form 2018 in which he said there are going to be 3 major bush wars of global import, Ukraine-Russia, Iran-Saudi Arabia, and China-Indian Ocean. So far Ukraine has panned out, he also predicted where the political parties are going right now in the US and why they seem so out of whack.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#217

Post by BirdieNZ »

kylehotchkiss wrote: post #192
ddorian43 wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nah. Canada real estate has to take the hit.

Canada's real estate situation makes no sense to me as a US citizen. * Plenty of land * Plenty of wood * Plenty of sources of fresh water * Pro-immigrantion policy could reducing construction costs * Seemingly high rate of 'cottage' ownership which seems like a second home to me, which seems to indicate abundance? * Remote working situation good * Fiber can't be that hard to roll out to new places right next to roads…

> Plenty of land

Land is generally not very valuable by itself, it is locations that are valuable (specifically desirable locations in growing cities). There are highly limited locations available in Canadian cities, particularly the desirable cities of Toronto and Vancouver.

Same with the Bay Area, NYC, Hong Kong, Singapore, Sydney, Auckland etc. Singapore does probably the best job of the above at keeping housing relatively affordable despite very limited locations.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#218

Post by thfuran »

WalterBright wrote: post #210
thfuran wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which country are you referring to? I rather suspect that their government is a good deal less hands off than you're implying.

The US is a fine example, especially the first century.

Very nearly the first piece of legislation passed after the ratification of the constitution was a tariff.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#219

Post by unholiness »

mjburgess wrote: post #7

This article appears to take place in a universe where interest rates at central banks are at counter-inflationary levels. They've been inflationary for a decade, and continue to be so. With inflation at 10%, fears about "going too far with interest rates" make sense only *at least* north of 5%, and realistically, 8%.

Macroeconomics novice here. What's the argument that interest rates need to be close to inflation rates to counteract it?

It seems like there should be an intrinsic time-value of money (e.g. 1 stuff today is worth 1.05 stuff next year) which is tradable (supply of future-stuff will equal demand for future-stuff at some rate like 1.05). And that single rate of stuff-interest would exist if the central bank does nothing. If that's true, then in a long-run equilibrium, shouldn't there be zero inflation if the interest rate in dollars (i.e. the fed rate) matches that intrinsic rate of stuff-interest?

Any explanation or links to the same would be helpful! I'm just past the point of grasping the fact that interest rates going down causes inflation to go up, but finding it hard to find sources on anything that give me intuition on answering e.g. how much things would go up if you held one policy forever, and what factors that answer would depend on.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#220

Post by colinmhayes »

throwawaymaths wrote: post #158
spaceman_2020 wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm a fan but he does get a little too blinded by America patriotism. His predictions about other countries start getting too comically apocalyptic to be taken seriously at times.

Well he does get credence for predicting invasion of Ukraine (which was also thought to be comically apocalyptic). Twice. He's been remarkably consistent in calling bad times for china and it's certainly gotten worse over there in the last year. I think there are a few other things that have lined up, like Sri Lanka collapse being a bellwether for his forecasts.

I also predicted the invasion of Ukraine. So did the US intelligence service last summer. So did the state department when trump was trying to extort zelensky over military aid for a hunter Biden investigation. Not a hard prediction to make at all after no one gave a shit about crimea, especially given putins longstanding goal of Soviet reunification.
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