121–130 of 308 posts
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The primary link blocks me after a short scroll. Couldn't get past "the fold". But with Archive I can read the full article.
There's a dumb anti-pattern link that's like "I don't want to subscribe yet", but yeah, annoying nonetheless. I thought Substack was supposed to be a nicer alternative to Medium?
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Jobs are more often created than discovered. Tomorrow we might discover a new kind of math, requiring newly trained mathmeticians in a novel field. Those mathmeticians will need admins, business services, places to work, food, etc. Thus even the discovery of a few jobs has more jobs created than found.
The mathematicians don't need any more food than they did before the new kind of math was discovered. Why would you count that as job creation?
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Pretty much. I think he's too eager to write off certain things to paint a wholly American picture, but he's generally got it right. The China story is not as clear. But the Europe picture is pretty plain. America is gonna eat it's lunch.
How does India do in all this? Their software development salaries in tier 1 cities are close to 100k or more. Lots of friends going back .
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Has to? Why?
It is common to have adjustable rates in Canada, while the standard in USA is fixed rates. So in these times where rates go up, it makes Canadian homeowners suddenly have to pay more for their houses they're already living in.
In variable rate mortgages, the amount going to principal vs interest changes. The monthly payments remain constant.
Monetary policy is far from the whole picture here. Global policy makers are dealing with about 25% of the global population being lifted from poverty over the last several decades and their increased consumption and wages are supply-side inflationary in ways not easily (or appropriately) reversed. The impact isn't just economic. Inflation is destabilizing (Venezuela, Argentina, Turkey). The west invested heavily in…
Much manufacturing left the West to relocate the pollution. Pollution colonialism.
> It is the most concerted effort to slow down growth and employment in the interests of monetary stability that we have seen since the 1980s. I see it as a war of generations. The boomers/genXers are eager to preserve their wealth and are once again dumping on young people. The 70s was a period of high inflation, it was also, according to piketty a period of high income equality for the world over. The central banks…
You know high inflation makes it worse to be poor right? Especially core inflation.
The downside of inflation is wages and cost of living adjustments often don't keep pace with inflation because government statistics are rigged to understate the real rate of inflation and many things aren't even indexed to inflation. For example, the minimum wage has been $7.15 an hour in the US for about 15 years. Wage growth not keeping pace with inflation is, as far as inflation hawks are concerned, a feature not a bug as it increases public support for inflation hawk policies.
> A generation of young people whose education was blighted by COVID lockdowns, will face a closed labour market. But shortly after, when all inefficient companies bankrupt, they'll wake up in the booming economy, finding places in perspective businesses. Crisis is good for the economy in the long term. I only worry that governments won't allow young trees to grow after the forest's fire.
there is some name for this kind of dismissive optimism, but I do not know it.. suggestions?
I hear this kind of thing from the Cato Institute Human Progress people, who have trillions in paper wealth and the Oil and Gas economy to defend. What could go wrong?
I think the US (and Canada) just needs to ride the tide and let all the other boats sink. Pretty much everyone else is screwed. I think people are underestimating the second order effects of the US still having stable energy and farming capabilities. We'll see more stuff get done here and less stuff done elsewhere. Unemployment will be great here no matter what we do really. It will suffer in other countries. Though…
This is the basic premise of this talk by Petar Zeihan https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wi_nFz1CJSI&t=2s
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It is common to have adjustable rates in Canada, while the standard in USA is fixed rates. So in these times where rates go up, it makes Canadian homeowners suddenly have to pay more for their houses they're already living in.
Well, I hope those people don't end up homeless. I don't see how the housing market crashing is going to be good for them.
I think the US (and Canada) just needs to ride the tide and let all the other boats sink. Pretty much everyone else is screwed. I think people are underestimating the second order effects of the US still having stable energy and farming capabilities. We'll see more stuff get done here and less stuff done elsewhere. Unemployment will be great here no matter what we do really. It will suffer in other countries. Though…