Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

Post by foobarian » Fri, Sep 16, 2022, 3:19 PM UTC

sb057 wrote: post #84

mattbrewsbytes wrote: post #38

And Michael Burry has been predicting crashes every few years since the 2008 one. And Bill Ackman predicted 'hell is coming' at the onset of the pandemic and made $2B [0]. And there were US Senators that also did possibly illegal things to pull money out of the market before the public knew about the pandemic. Outside of disclosures filed with the SEC, stock trading is anonymous yet they will have all sorts of headli…

>So all players in the market are just selling everything across the market to the tune of -1.4% because FedEx is having issues? FedEx's issues is that their volume is down massively. High (nay, accelerating) rates of trade are the foundation of the modern economy. If trade starts to slow down, or, Lord forbid, decline , then yes that can have massive negative repercussions.

Post by foobarian » Fri, Sep 16, 2022, 3:25 PM UTC

peteradio wrote: post #30

snarf21 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very true. Plus this is nonsense. Interest rates are still far too low. There is wayyyyy too much money floating around in the system and global growth has slowed. That money will be chasing returns wherever they can find them and that has been the market and now real estate. Both of these will be net up over the next 10 years. It will be choppy for a few years as inflation is battled and interest rates rise a little…

Inflation adjusted won't that look rather flat or negative? Where are these real returns going to be coming from? Hot stocks haven't been paying appropriate dividends for the last two decades.

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Sep 16, 2022, 3:31 PM UTC

foobarian wrote: post #88

coldcode wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read a lot of these type of predictions, often you see some people say it's a great time to buy, and others it's a bad time to buy, and generally you will only remember the people who guessed correctly, so none of this helps you today at all. Every time those people who got lucky will appear in some future ad or article making a new prediction, and generally fewer will be lucky twice. In the long run, everyone is l…

Your comment makes me realize that in the medium term, after most of the unlucky predictors drop off, you are statistically likely to be left with a few really lucky ones (i.e. if a thousand people are tossing coins, you're likely to get one guy with a streak of 10 heads), and these individuals are perfect to put on pedestals as rare and brilliant talents.

Post by twawaaay » Fri, Sep 16, 2022, 3:33 PM UTC

foobarian wrote: post #88

coldcode wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read a lot of these type of predictions, often you see some people say it's a great time to buy, and others it's a bad time to buy, and generally you will only remember the people who guessed correctly, so none of this helps you today at all. Every time those people who got lucky will appear in some future ad or article making a new prediction, and generally fewer will be lucky twice. In the long run, everyone is l…

Your comment makes me realize that in the medium term, after most of the unlucky predictors drop off, you are statistically likely to be left with a few really lucky ones (i.e. if a thousand people are tossing coins, you're likely to get one guy with a streak of 10 heads), and these individuals are perfect to put on pedestals as rare and brilliant talents.

Post by deehouie » Fri, Sep 16, 2022, 3:38 PM UTC

fny wrote: post #7

For those who don't know, Druckenmiller is also very well known for changing his mind the minute facts change which is one of the hallmarks of good trading.