71–80 of 260 posts
At this point, I’m expecting both stagflation and a flat market for years to come. Odd that mortgage rate is above 6%, inflation is high, layoffs are happening, and yet the White House is pretending it’s not a recession and won’t say the word.
The fed is fighting to undo the QE it over did during the pandemic
I, a random anon from the Internet, think SP500 is heading for 2400 or even lower (1600ish?), which is great news, as millenials will get a chance to buy stocks at a low price.
It's the same line with the housing market doomers "Prices will crash and I will be able to buy a nice home".
If something is crashing, it means no one can or will buy it. If people can buy something or want to buy it, it will no crash.
And Michael Burry has been predicting crashes every few years since the 2008 one. And Bill Ackman predicted 'hell is coming' at the onset of the pandemic and made $2B [0]. And there were US Senators that also did possibly illegal things to pull money out of the market before the public knew about the pandemic. Outside of disclosures filed with the SEC, stock trading is anonymous yet they will have all sorts of headli…
You shouldn't read those headlines. Both the ones walking you off a cliff in increasingly devious ways the interviews with Warren Buffett saying buy and hold which is a pessimal strategy, and the headlines announcing x happened because y as if you should think y leads x. It did not, they don't know that, news blogs get a pass in telling people false causes after the fact, dude it's purely made up and it's a guessing…
"There’s a high probability in my mind that the market, at best, is going to be kind of flat for 10 years, sort of like this ’66 to ’82 time period" From another article on '66-'82: > The Dow went sideways, but the S&P actually earned a respectable 6.8% return in that time. 6.8% is hardly apocalyptic. The S&P 500 usually averages 10% over long timescales. His former hedge fund also delivered an annual average rate of…
This is a pretty meaningless statement.
6.8% over 10-20 years is certainly a nightmare scenario for most investors and is probably a significant loss against the risk free rate over the same period.
At this point, I’m expecting both stagflation and a flat market for years to come. Odd that mortgage rate is above 6%, inflation is high, layoffs are happening, and yet the White House is pretending it’s not a recession and won’t say the word.
Inflation isn't high any more. July was 0% and August was 0.1%. The headline number looks at a 12 month window. Until the very high inflation months earlier this year drop out of that window the headline number will be high. But it does not look like prices are increasing much anymore. All of the long term trends still point to low inflation like they did before Covid. Slow population growth, technology, and boomers…
The CPI was 255.7 in 2019 and estimated to be 294.4 for 2022. That's a 15% increase in three years in an index that's acknowledged to somewhat under-report inflation. CPI could flatline (zero MoM) for the next two years and we would still be at 3% annual inflation over five years, which is above the Fed's target, in addition to all the asset inflation we've had that the CPI doesn't really track. Absolutely nobody who pays real bills will feel like inflation has subsided.
> IMHO we are going to go back to worrying about deflation in the next 12 months or so.
There's a lot of money to be made in the STIRS markets if your prediction comes true.
For those of us still in the first half of our working careers, this would be a welcome development.
How do you figure? I was thinking the opposite: that the model of saving for retirement via investment accounts requires good returns in the early part of your career, so the smaller amounts of money you can afford to put away for your relatively smaller early career salary can compound over your career length to be enough for retirement.
For those of us still in the first half of our working careers, this would be a welcome development.
How do you figure? I was thinking the opposite: that the model of saving for retirement via investment accounts requires good returns in the early part of your career, so the smaller amounts of money you can afford to put away for your relatively smaller early career salary can compound over your career length to be enough for retirement.
Most of the HN audience is privileged class by courtesy of being tech savvy. Unlike many others, most of us can keep investing even in less fortunate times when others cannot. Exactly those investments might yield extra high long term returns.
At this point, I’m expecting both stagflation and a flat market for years to come. Odd that mortgage rate is above 6%, inflation is high, layoffs are happening, and yet the White House is pretending it’s not a recession and won’t say the word.
The top 40% are unbelievably flush with cash and the job market is strong as ever (bloated tech companies don't count, their value was solely promises anyway). The fed is fighting to undo the QE it over did during the pandemic
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Inflation isn't high any more. July was 0% and August was 0.1%. The headline number looks at a 12 month window. Until the very high inflation months earlier this year drop out of that window the headline number will be high. But it does not look like prices are increasing much anymore. All of the long term trends still point to low inflation like they did before Covid. Slow population growth, technology, and boomers…
> Inflation isn't high any more. The CPI was 255.7 in 2019 and estimated to be 294.4 for 2022. That's a 15% increase in three years in an index that's acknowledged to somewhat under-report inflation. CPI could flatline (zero MoM) for the next two years and we would still be at 3% annual inflation over five years, which is above the Fed's target, in addition to all the asset inflation we've had that the CPI doesn't re…
Which means it's high over the last three years. It doesn't mean it's high today.
And Michael Burry has been predicting crashes every few years since the 2008 one. And Bill Ackman predicted 'hell is coming' at the onset of the pandemic and made $2B [0]. And there were US Senators that also did possibly illegal things to pull money out of the market before the public knew about the pandemic. Outside of disclosures filed with the SEC, stock trading is anonymous yet they will have all sorts of headli…
They try too hard to predict the market, when in the long run if they just stayed long they would have done better.