When people start making these predictions, its often a good time to buy.
this is not 'people', this is the druck. pay attention...
Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade
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Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade
#12Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade
#13For those of us still in the first half of our working careers, this would be a welcome development.
Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade
#14"There’s a high probability in my mind that the market, at best, is going to be kind of flat for 10 years, sort of like this ’66 to ’82 time period"
From another article on '66-'82:
> The Dow went sideways, but the S&P actually earned a respectable 6.8% return in that time.
6.8% is hardly apocalyptic. The S&P 500 usually averages 10% over long timescales.
His former hedge fund also delivered an annual average rate of return of 30% from 1986 to 2010. What an absolute unit.
Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade
#15> “There’s a high probability in my mind that the market, at best, is going to be kind of flat for 10 years, sort of like this ’66 to ’82 time period,” he said in an interview with Alex Karp, CEO of software and A.I. firm Palantir.
Adjusting for inflation, the stock market was not "flat" during this period [0]. The DJIA, for example, closed at an effective price of 9,160.41 in January 1966 and closed at an effective price of 3,176.25 in December 1982. That's a 65% drop, which is a pretty big stretch to call "flat".
[0]: https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historic...
Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade
#16Earlier quoted context omitted.
But in turn when people make these predictions, it’s often a good time to sell…
It’s almost as if anyone with the actual ability to predict a market movement has a disincentive to talk about it in public.
You're flying dangerously close to buying into the idea that anyone working in markets actually has any meaningful ability to predict, and isn't just semi-gambling in a semi-rigged environment.
Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade
#17For those of us still in the first half of our working careers, this would be a welcome development.
How do you figure?
I was thinking the opposite: that the model of saving for retirement via investment accounts requires good returns in the early part of your career, so the smaller amounts of money you can afford to put away for your relatively smaller early career salary can compound over your career length to be enough for retirement.
Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade
#18I'll still wait a few months to buy, but the green energy changes will improve everything. No more oil/gas dependencies!
Is this sarcasm? Few months before green energy turns the ship around? Oil/gas is the backbone of most economy, dare say we will remain dependent.
Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade
#19No post body was provided.
Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade
#20For those who don't know, Druckenmiller is also very well known for changing his mind the minute facts change which is one of the hallmarks of good trading.
Very true. Plus this is nonsense. Interest rates are still far too low. There is wayyyyy too much money floating around in the system and global growth has slowed. That money will be chasing returns wherever they can find them and that has been the market and now real estate. Both of these will be net up over the next 10 years. It will be choppy for a few years as inflation is battled and interest rates rise a little bit more.