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Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

fortune.com

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Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#81

Post by coldcode »

mattbrewsbytes wrote: post #38

And Michael Burry has been predicting crashes every few years since the 2008 one. And Bill Ackman predicted 'hell is coming' at the onset of the pandemic and made $2B [0]. And there were US Senators that also did possibly illegal things to pull money out of the market before the public knew about the pandemic. Outside of disclosures filed with the SEC, stock trading is anonymous yet they will have all sorts of headli…

I read a lot of these type of predictions, often you see some people say it's a great time to buy, and others it's a bad time to buy, and generally you will only remember the people who guessed correctly, so none of this helps you today at all. Every time those people who got lucky will appear in some future ad or article making a new prediction, and generally fewer will be lucky twice. In the long run, everyone is likely wrong.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#82

Post by onlyrealcuzzo »

rufus_foreman wrote: post #70
mvc wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Presumably dividends would balance it out though.

With dividends reinvested you get -25.096%, https://dqydj.com/dow-jones-return-calculator/ . S&P 500 is -3.745%.

So one of the worst long-term periods in history - the S&P was still ~50% better than cash.

What else is a passive investor gonna do?

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#83

Post by jdkuepper »

bilsbie wrote: post #67
2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about S&P 500? The Dow Jones Industrial Average indexes a mere 30 companies.

I wish we’d stop talking about the Dow. It isn’t useful.

Yes, but also, stock correlations are so high that it's not as big of a difference as you might think.[1]

1: https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/pair-correlation/DIA/%5EGSP...

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#84

Post by sb057 »

mattbrewsbytes wrote: post #38

And Michael Burry has been predicting crashes every few years since the 2008 one. And Bill Ackman predicted 'hell is coming' at the onset of the pandemic and made $2B [0]. And there were US Senators that also did possibly illegal things to pull money out of the market before the public knew about the pandemic. Outside of disclosures filed with the SEC, stock trading is anonymous yet they will have all sorts of headli…

>So all players in the market are just selling everything across the market to the tune of -1.4% because FedEx is having issues?

FedEx's issues is that their volume is down massively. High (nay, accelerating) rates of trade are the foundation of the modern economy. If trade starts to slow down, or, Lord forbid, decline, then yes that can have massive negative repercussions.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#85

Post by mmastrac »

mattbrewsbytes wrote: post #38

And Michael Burry has been predicting crashes every few years since the 2008 one. And Bill Ackman predicted 'hell is coming' at the onset of the pandemic and made $2B [0]. And there were US Senators that also did possibly illegal things to pull money out of the market before the public knew about the pandemic. Outside of disclosures filed with the SEC, stock trading is anonymous yet they will have all sorts of headli…

As the old joke goes: Burry predicted 20 of the last two crashes.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#86

Post by chmod775 »

Workaccount2 wrote: post #72
apples_oranges wrote: post #23

I, a random anon from the Internet, think SP500 is heading for 2400 or even lower (1600ish?), which is great news, as millenials will get a chance to buy stocks at a low price.

You probably don't realize it, most don't, but your statement is contradictory. It's the same line with the housing market doomers "Prices will crash and I will be able to buy a nice home". If something is crashing, it means no one can or will buy it. If people can buy something or want to buy it, it will no crash.

> You probably don't realize it, most don't, but your statement is contradictory.

It's not.

> If something is crashing, it means no one can or will buy it. [..] If people can buy something or want to buy it, it will no crash.

You're only looking at demand as if that's everything that determines price. There's also the supply side to consider, as well as the fact that markets aren't a formless thing with no fixed location existing in a vacuum.

Price crashes can also happen because of competition destroying high margins or production simply becoming way cheaper. Price crashes don't have to be related to demand: it can simply be a matter of companies undercutting each other.

A third way for price crashes to happen is investors buying up a commodity, increasing the price. This will likely cause production to ramp up to compensate, slowly driving the price back down. Once investors see the price beginning to drop, they may sell in a panic. You're left with a market that is flooded by investors trying divest themselves amidst an overproduction, causing a price crash. The consumer never went away or was unwilling to buy though! Averaged over the entire timespan, demand never changed.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#87

Post by prottog »

treis wrote: post #79
prottog wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Inflation isn't high any more. The CPI was 255.7 in 2019 and estimated to be 294.4 for 2022. That's a 15% increase in three years in an index that's acknowledged to somewhat under-report inflation. CPI could flatline (zero MoM) for the next two years and we would still be at 3% annual inflation over five years, which is above the Fed's target, in addition to all the asset inflation we've had that the CPI doesn't re…

>That's a 15% increase in three years Which means it's high over the last three years. It doesn't mean it's high today.

You're right, but it's going to take either a while or actively lower prices before people will stop feeling like everything is more expensive than it should be. Psychology matters for the effects of inflation on the macro economy.

I've definitely altered my purchasing behavior because things "feel" too expensive, and a few months of 0% MoM inflation isn't going to change that. Either in two years I'm going to finally get used to a cart of groceries costing $250, or prices come down sooner.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#88

Post by foobarian »

coldcode wrote: post #81
mattbrewsbytes wrote: post #38

And Michael Burry has been predicting crashes every few years since the 2008 one. And Bill Ackman predicted 'hell is coming' at the onset of the pandemic and made $2B [0]. And there were US Senators that also did possibly illegal things to pull money out of the market before the public knew about the pandemic. Outside of disclosures filed with the SEC, stock trading is anonymous yet they will have all sorts of headli…

I read a lot of these type of predictions, often you see some people say it's a great time to buy, and others it's a bad time to buy, and generally you will only remember the people who guessed correctly, so none of this helps you today at all. Every time those people who got lucky will appear in some future ad or article making a new prediction, and generally fewer will be lucky twice. In the long run, everyone is l…

Your comment makes me realize that in the medium term, after most of the unlucky predictors drop off, you are statistically likely to be left with a few really lucky ones (i.e. if a thousand people are tossing coins, you're likely to get one guy with a streak of 10 heads), and these individuals are perfect to put on pedestals as rare and brilliant talents.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#89

Post by iforgetti »

jrochkind1 wrote: post #17
iforgetti wrote: post #13

For those of us still in the first half of our working careers, this would be a welcome development.

How do you figure? I was thinking the opposite: that the model of saving for retirement via investment accounts requires good returns in the early part of your career, so the smaller amounts of money you can afford to put away for your relatively smaller early career salary can compound over your career length to be enough for retirement.

What others wrote was pretty much my reasoning but a bit further, over the very long run (30+ years) markets will revert to mean performance. If you have strong gains in the first half of your career then when you are in your peak earning years, investments will be more expensive at time of purchase. As a result when you are investing the most, returns on that principle will be lower.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#90

Post by SantalBlush »

throwoutway wrote: post #24

At this point, I’m expecting both stagflation and a flat market for years to come. Odd that mortgage rate is above 6%, inflation is high, layoffs are happening, and yet the White House is pretending it’s not a recession and won’t say the word.

"Layoffs are happening" is not a metric, it's a truism. Layoffs are always happening somewhere, even in a growing economy. How prevalent are layoffs in the overall economy? You didn't even bother to check.

Current mortgage rates have little to do with recession, if at all.

Inflation is a problem, and it could absolutely lead to recession in the near future, but it hasn't yet. This is why the White House is "pretending" we're not in a recession.

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