Earlier quoted context omitted.
"Not letting e.g. Baltics into NATO/EU would almost certainly mean they have been already absorbed back into Russia. The rest of CEE would be vassalized." Why?
Because Russia has a recent and current track record of behaving this way.
European natural gas imports and storage reserves
221–230 of 296 posts
Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves
#222Earlier quoted context omitted.
Do you not think that the US has a huge sphere of influence? It seems to me that the US can and does take any action it wishes to outside its borders. Sometimes those actions have a good moral justification and sometimes they don’t. >US and Russia simply can not agree between themselves what should be Ukraine's place in the world. I’ll argue the opposite. The Ukraine has no inherent right to join NATO. Ukraine isn’t…
Ukraine has inherent freedom to join NATO. It needs NATO's permission because that's how NATO works, but it doesn't need Russian permission
>It needs NATO's permission because that's how NATO works
Sorry to be a pedantic asshole but those statements are in opposition to each other. What you want to say is that they should they should have the freedom to apply and join if accepted.
>but it doesn't need Russian permission
In an ideal world they shouldn't need Russian permission, unfortunately we seem to live in a world where might makes right.
Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves
#223Earlier quoted context omitted.
You are justifying an action by the reaction to it. It's like saying that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is justified by the Ukrainian drones and rockets attacking Russian cities [0] and villages near Ukrainian border. [0] https://t.me/zhest_belgorod/16230
Russia has been a prison of people’s for some time. I’m all for countries like Finland wanting to be neutral but Russia’s actions and out right threats of war really force their hands. There’s a reason Belarus is the only real ally in the region.
Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves
#224Earlier quoted context omitted.
And which neighbor hasn't invaded Russia? Russia remembers that too. In the 1990s there was a perfect chance to turn the page, but it was squandered by the West.
I agree, Russia should form or join an already existing defensive alliance to protect itself against what it considers to be aggressive neighbors. That sounds reasonable to me, just like the neighboring countries doing likewise - joining a pact to defend against Russia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective_Security_Treaty_Org...
Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves
#225Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves
#226Earlier quoted context omitted.
Based on Russian performance at the start of the invasion, a similar force would have overrun the Baltic states. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are small and geographically isolated. They are surrounded by Russia, Belarus, and the Baltic Sea. Any attempt to support and supply them would have to go through the small gap between Kaliningrad and Belarus, or over the Baltic Sea, which would be heavily contested. The geog…
Wouldn't any Russian force driving around in the Baltic states be easy targets for NATO cruise missiles and air power? None of which NATO countries has offered to use in Ukraine. I think logistics by railway would be problematic if NATO allies launched a few thousand cruise missiles.
Air power is of little use if your forces don't have access to the relevant area. The Baltic states are surrounded by Russian bases and air defenses, while NATO bases are far away. Right now, Kaliningrad is effectively a fortress that separates the Baltic states from the rest of NATO. Sweden and Finland give NATO air forces the option to bypass Kaliningrad and operate from bases that are closer to the Baltic states.
Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves
#227Earlier quoted context omitted.
Such agreements are based on trust and if that’s gone both parties stand to lose a lot. The kind of global challenges we will meet can only be tackled by having the US, Russia, China, India, the EU work together. Pointing out that it was a verbal agreement is correct, but is missing the bigger point. This is not just a technical gotcha, the future of humanity is at stake. Those countries which wanted to join have age…
Turkey apparently didn't get this rubber-stamping message, and used their vote for own gains. To me this still looks pretty much like a state deciding for themselves.
Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves
#228Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think Russia actually does care - Putin recently said that closing the natural gas supply was in retaliation to EU's economic sanctions. Are you suggesting the West should deliberately keep countries poorer, in the fear of them becoming (more) authoritarian? I think that would be wrong (and also counterproductive) thing to do.
>keep countries poorer Keep hard authoritarian and totalitarian countries poorer. That's done with multiple countries right now, like North Korea, Iran, Cuba, Venezuela. Keep weak authoritarian (on a road to democracy) and democratic nations richer. EU and NATO expansion have been historic successes, with democracy extending farther than ever in the 90s and 00s. Moreover, US policy on India has been largest geopoliti…
I also think it's immoral to intentionally keep any country poor, whether authoritarian or not. I don't know where you live, but I would certainly not want Czechoslovakia to be intentionally kept poor during communist dictatorship just so that some Western politician could stroke his ego about how is he fighting against communism. I think that's very authoritarian and patronizing idea, to do so. It's just a double whammy for citizens of such countries.
Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves
#229Earlier quoted context omitted.
You too are trying to justify NATO expansion by Russian reaction to it.
Not necessarily. Most of the new members have been invaded by Russia in the past 100 years.
Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves
#230Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yeah, but the Americans pinky swore that they wouldn't expand NATO in the early 90s in an early negotiating round. That's how negotiations work. Everything the west proposes at any point of negotiations must be honored irrespective of whether it was actually an agreed upon outcome of that negotiation or not. And if Russia blatantly breaks the agreed upon, written, formally accepted points of the negotiation that does…
edit: Oh, I think I may have misread what you wrote. You were being sarcastic and saying that the US proposed not to expand early on but no agreement was reached, and Russia is trying to hold NATO to that anyway. Sorry! Could you provide any proof of this? I don't see any evidence of this, are you referring to a verbal agreement? https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_111767.htm#c203 Claim: NATO promised Russia it…