European natural gas imports and storage reserves • Hacker News Board

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#181

Post by lostapathy » Tue, Sep 13, 2022, 6:07 PM UTC

pydry wrote: post #74

distances wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We should all be lobbying for a large neutral buffer zone between US-aligned Europe and Russia As long as that buffer is inside Russia, I would be fine with it as I suppose most others would. It's not OK to suggest that countries can have a sphere of influence in 21st century. Each country chooses their alignment and alliance independently. Russia has repeatedly shown to be a poor neighbour, so it shouldn't be a su…

>It's not OK to suggest that countries can have a sphere of influence in 21st century Ask your Congressman about pulling out of Guam and closing all overseas military bases. >That kind of world order does not exist any more. This is, ironically, enough, something that Putin started saying to us since he came into power. Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, etc. He lobbied the west to adhere to a rules based international order…

> Ask your Congressman about pulling out of Guam and closing all overseas military bases.

Guam is a US territory - not a foreign base.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#182

Post by cycomanic » Tue, Sep 13, 2022, 6:08 PM UTC

Mewit wrote: post #167

Looks better than I thought! But of course they'll burn through that storage fast if it's a cold winter. The import graphs give me hope that they might be able to mostly plug the gap with LNG and maybe Algeria. Of course for LNG they're competing with Asia, so even if they are able to avoid physically running out of gas, it's probably going to get very expensive. I think what this has really demonstrated is the dange…

The German situation was even worse then you describe. They decided to move out of coal and nuclear, but at the same time made windpower significantly more difficult and reduced investment into solar. If you look at the installed windturbines (https://www.wind-energie.de/english/statistics/statistics-ge...) you can see an initial boom around 2000 and a large reduction after 2004 similarly things picked up again in 2014 only to be reduced very low again 4 years later.

Coincidentally the first reduction came with a change of power from the SPD/Greens coalition to the CDU/FDP and the second slump when the energy and business ministry went from the SPD in the coalition to Peter Altmaier of the CDU.

In a recent debate on energy in parliament the current chancellor from the SPD (labor equivalent) responded to criticism from the CDU (conservatives), that the current government is fixing the huge mess left over by the previous governments (lead by the CDU). I'm not a big fan of Olaf Scholz (the current chancellor) in general, but rarely was there a truer statement.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#183

Post by benj111 » Tue, Sep 13, 2022, 6:12 PM UTC

js8 wrote: post #158

benj111 wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So just so we're clear. Russia is ok invading another country and killing it's populace. But the west shouldn't fight back incase it kills someone? Why aren't you holding Russia to the same standard as everyone else. Why don't you require them to talk and 'appease' the west rather than invading?

I am holding both to same standard. Russian invasion is of course terrible, and it in fact undermined Russia's own goal of keeping Ukraine neutral, at the very least. But I think everybody here agrees with that, so what's the point of stressing it? You think Putin listens to my opinion? Yes, and the West should be careful with military intervention, and consider whether it won't lead to more escalation and more death…

What about Ukraine? Should they refrain from defending themselves? Lest it cause blood shed?

I really don't get your POV Putin has repeatedly shown they he will invade other countries. If we don't stop him at Ukraine then next it may well be a nato member and then how much blood shed will there be?

Your suggested course just rewards aggression. Sometimes you need to stand up to bullies. Putin is a bully.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#184

Post by dnh44 » Tue, Sep 13, 2022, 6:19 PM UTC

alexvoda wrote: post #147

gdy wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Western Europe just learned a painful lesson that you can't trust Russia. " Russia learnt that it cannot trust West when NATO started expanding into Eastern Europe and ex-USSR not too long after Warsaw pact and the USSR dissolved. Quite strange to say that West 'trusted' Russia after it betrayed Russia.

Quit repeating this crap. There was no agreement for NATO to not expand eastward and even Gorbachev stated there was no such agreement. You are just repeating the bullshit spread by Pozner and Mearsheimer. It is still bullshit propaganda no matter how many people repeat it. I fell for it too, at the start of the war, and then I tried to combat it each time I came across it.

Mearsheimer is way more of an authority on the subject than you are, so if you're going to dismiss his claim as bullshit while claiming you're trying to combat the claim you could at least provide a link. Also even if Mearsheimer is wrong in that claim it doesn't make it propaganda.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2014/11/06/did-nato-...

>the former Soviet president criticized NATO enlargement and called it a violation of the spirit of the assurances given Moscow in 1990, but he made clear there was no promise regarding broader enlargement.

More regarding Mearsheimer in case anyone is interested.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Mearsheimer

https://political-science.uchicago.edu/directory/john-mearsh...

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/why-john-mearsheimer-...

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#185

Post by stoltzmann » Tue, Sep 13, 2022, 6:21 PM UTC

gdy wrote: post #152

stoltzmann wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has been invading it's neighbors for centuries. Eastern Europeans do remember that. Joining NATO is not only about the conflict today, it's due to pretty much all generations in the area suffering due to their aggressive neighbor further to the east.

And which neighbor hasn't invaded Russia? Russia remembers that too. In the 1990s there was a perfect chance to turn the page, but it was squandered by the West.

I agree, Russia should form or join an already existing defensive alliance to protect itself against what it considers to be aggressive neighbors.

That sounds reasonable to me, just like the neighboring countries doing likewise - joining a pact to defend against Russia.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#186

Post by kspacewalk2 » Tue, Sep 13, 2022, 6:21 PM UTC

postsantum wrote: post #177

kspacewalk2 wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

- Sanctions are most definitely weakening Russia, by demolishing its economy in the medium- and long-term. - Russia has no elections since it's a near-totalitarian autocracy with usurpers firmly in charge by force. - Ukraine hasn't been buying Russian gas for about 5 years now. Russian gas is transited via Ukraine, even during the war, since it's a rare situation that's in the best interest of all parties to the conf…

>Ukraine hasn't been buying Russian gas for about 5 years now Yeah, they buy hungarian gas that just happens to flow from Russia. This is called "virtual reverse" >Russia uses energy as a weapon, so it must be deprived of this weapon. I heard Russia is willing to give up some of that in exchange for some rubles

Okay, I'll modify that. Ukraine hasn't been buying gas from Russia for about 5 years now. It buys gas from Europe, regardless of where it originates. If Russia cuts off the supply completely, Ukraine will buy whatever it needs from Europe (it also has enough of its own gas to supply its households, just not its industry).

>I heard Russia is willing to give up some of that in exchange for some rubles

I won't wish Russia good luck in this endeavour past 2023-2024, but I will note that it'll need all the luck it can get.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#187

Post by trasz » Tue, Sep 13, 2022, 6:26 PM UTC

rjzzleep wrote: post #9

roenxi wrote: post #6

Economies, when left alone, are about as resilient as cockroaches and much more brutal about securing themselves. The situation is a serious blow to the pride of the European politicians who look like they've been mishandling energy policy for years (where are the nuclear reactors?). But realistically they'll probably survive in practice. It'll be painful. The issue is that somehow the West has taken Iraq 2.0 and is…

What you're describing is basically why Kissinger et al lobbied to kick out Taiwan from the UN, lobbied to shut down Taiwan's nuclear weapons program at the UN and worked so hard to intertwine US and Chinese economies. It's also the reason why Kissinger had that speech and the WEF advising the political leadership of the west to change course. It doesn't really matter though, there seems to be no way to have a reason…

>What you're describing is basically why Kissinger et al lobbied to kick out Taiwan from the UN

As much as I hate Kissinger, this is not what happened at all. This wasn't about "kicking Taiwan out", it was about acknowledging the fact that KMT no longer ruled China, Beijing did. Also, it was the seventies; at that time Taiwan was ruled by a fascist regime - those were the folks who had to flee continental China because they were even worse than Mao.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#188

Post by arein3 » Tue, Sep 13, 2022, 6:28 PM UTC

yabqk wrote: post #134

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yemen isn't in Europe's backyard, and it isn't culturally European. If it was, you'd probably get a similar reaction.

Ukraine is as culturally European as Qatar.

Dumb

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#189

Post by hef19898 » Tue, Sep 13, 2022, 6:31 PM UTC

cycomanic wrote: post #182

Mewit wrote: post #167

Looks better than I thought! But of course they'll burn through that storage fast if it's a cold winter. The import graphs give me hope that they might be able to mostly plug the gap with LNG and maybe Algeria. Of course for LNG they're competing with Asia, so even if they are able to avoid physically running out of gas, it's probably going to get very expensive. I think what this has really demonstrated is the dange…

The German situation was even worse then you describe. They decided to move out of coal and nuclear, but at the same time made windpower significantly more difficult and reduced investment into solar. If you look at the installed windturbines ( https://www.wind-energie.de/english/statistics/statistics-ge... ) you can see an initial boom around 2000 and a large reduction after 2004 similarly things picked up again in…

Germany never moved away from coal, in fact we just had a new coal plant online without a valid construction permit and illegaly removed protetswrs to kind of illegaly cut down a forest to get the coal for that plant.

Nuclear plant run times have been extended as well, by those mean green anti-nuclear environmentalists that are in the new government by the way.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#190

Post by rich_sasha » Tue, Sep 13, 2022, 6:37 PM UTC

steve_adams_86 wrote: post #30

zibby8 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why LNG specifically? There are other sources of pipeline gas that aren’t coming from Russia.

What are other sources of pipeline gas? Where I live everything is LNG so I figured that all there is. What else can be transported and used in LNG lines?

Gas pipelines across Europe are quite fragmented. I understand Iberian peninsula is as-good-as cut off from the rest of the continent. I can't imagine there is much capacity going from Italy across the Alps.

So if you want to ship gas to an arbitrary location, it's more likely to be LNG.