European natural gas imports and storage reserves • Hacker News Board

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#131

Post by tablespoon » Tue, Sep 13, 2022, 4:40 PM UTC

wbsss4412 wrote: post #128

tablespoon wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Your analysis is seemingly based in the notion that all viewpoints are equal valid, No, it's rooted in the notion that Russia has it's own POV, and it's that POV that will determine its actions. The GGP's "simple first step" is nonsense, because it didn't recognize that POV. > but an analysis of the war needs to be rooted in what’s right and what’s wrong. And if someone (like an adversary) doesn't share your views…

> Your "simple first step" is nonsense What are you talking about? I never said anything about a “simple first step” > appeals to right and wrong are only persuasive for people who are aligned with you one that Look, I’m all for understanding the other side, but don’t take empathy so far that morality has no meaning.

> What are you talking about? I never said anything about a “simple first step”

I corrected that. I didn't notice at first that you were a different account than the one I originally responded to.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#132

Post by MomoXenosaga » Tue, Sep 13, 2022, 4:41 PM UTC

tablespoon wrote: post #119

bhaak wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What diplomatic off ramp does Russia need? There is a simple first step towards redemption and that is get out of Ukraine right now. Better yesterday. Western Europe just learned a painful lesson that you can't trust Russia. Eastern Europe tried to hammer that point into the brains of the other European politicians but it didn't work until now.

> What diplomatic off ramp does Russia need? One that saves face, to at least some degree. > There is a simple first step towards redemption and that is get out of Ukraine right now. Better yesterday. Simple for you, because you're not the one losing face For example, here's another "simple first step" for Europe "towards redemption" (in the eyes of the Russians): withdraw all military and financial support for Ukrai…

It works both ways you know. Europe cannot afford to lose face either. Imagine EU can be blackmailed by Russia! Wouldn't stand a chance against the US or China.

The EU clearly believes they can win this fight so why should it withdraw support to Ukraine?

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#133

Post by tablespoon » Tue, Sep 13, 2022, 4:42 PM UTC

serpix wrote: post #129

tablespoon wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Your analysis is seemingly based in the notion that all viewpoints are equal valid, No, it's rooted in the notion that Russia has it's own POV, and it's that POV that will determine its actions. The GGP's "simple first step" is nonsense, because it didn't recognize that POV. > but an analysis of the war needs to be rooted in what’s right and what’s wrong. And if someone (like an adversary) doesn't share your views…

The POV of Russia is genocide of Ukrainian people and culture. This is a POV that is not up for consideration or saving of face.

> The POV of Russia is genocide of Ukrainian people and culture. This is a POV that is not up for consideration or saving of face.

Exactly, so no one should suggest to the Russians that they just go home because what they're doing is wrong. It's not realistic. If you want them to just go home, you have to do better than that to engineer the situation. Otherwise, the options are fight or surrender to them.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#134

Post by yabqk » Tue, Sep 13, 2022, 4:44 PM UTC

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #130

nikolay wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, once of a sudden, Europe is fine with shale gas as long as it's from another country. Europe seems fine with gas from Qatar as well, which also is waging a cruel war in Yemen with tons of deliberate civilian casulties!

Yemen isn't in Europe's backyard, and it isn't culturally European. If it was, you'd probably get a similar reaction.

Ukraine is as culturally European as Qatar.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#135

Post by benj111 » Tue, Sep 13, 2022, 4:44 PM UTC

js8 wrote: post #102

nradov wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That isn't a relevant question. The goal is to contain Russian expansionism, not to minimize deaths.

Well, our values seem to differ, then. I don't mind Russian expansion unless there are dead people in its wake. I think saving the lives should always trump the national pride.

So just so we're clear.

Russia is ok invading another country and killing it's populace. But the west shouldn't fight back incase it kills someone?

Why aren't you holding Russia to the same standard as everyone else. Why don't you require them to talk and 'appease' the west rather than invading?

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#136

Post by 01100011 » Tue, Sep 13, 2022, 4:45 PM UTC

iSnow wrote: post #41

With a couple of FSRU terminals coming online during the next year, Europe might be OK, but it's going to be a problem. Storage is high for the season, and growing, but total gas delivered is very low. When the winter cold comes, storage will be depleted much faster than in the last years, and even if no gas shortages occur, storage will be very empty in spring - maybe too low to refill them till next winter.

It's going to be a tough winter. 100% storage still doesn't last very long relative to historical usage. Cutbacks will have to be dramatic and a lot of industry will need to be shuttered(and already is, see metal refining).

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#137

Post by yabqk » Tue, Sep 13, 2022, 4:46 PM UTC

MomoXenosaga wrote: post #132

tablespoon wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What diplomatic off ramp does Russia need? One that saves face, to at least some degree. > There is a simple first step towards redemption and that is get out of Ukraine right now. Better yesterday. Simple for you, because you're not the one losing face For example, here's another "simple first step" for Europe "towards redemption" (in the eyes of the Russians): withdraw all military and financial support for Ukrai…

It works both ways you know. Europe cannot afford to lose face either. Imagine EU can be blackmailed by Russia! Wouldn't stand a chance against the US or China. The EU clearly believes they can win this fight so why should it withdraw support to Ukraine?

The EU doesn’t stand a chance against the US: look how they forced us to wage a proxy war against Russia. And now we’re going to buy liquefied gas from them.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#138

Post by tablespoon » Tue, Sep 13, 2022, 4:47 PM UTC

MomoXenosaga wrote: post #132

tablespoon wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What diplomatic off ramp does Russia need? One that saves face, to at least some degree. > There is a simple first step towards redemption and that is get out of Ukraine right now. Better yesterday. Simple for you, because you're not the one losing face For example, here's another "simple first step" for Europe "towards redemption" (in the eyes of the Russians): withdraw all military and financial support for Ukrai…

It works both ways you know. Europe cannot afford to lose face either. Imagine EU can be blackmailed by Russia! Wouldn't stand a chance against the US or China. The EU clearly believes they can win this fight so why should it withdraw support to Ukraine?

>>> There is a simple first step towards redemption and that is get out of Ukraine right now. Better yesterday.

>> Simple for you, because you're not the one losing face For example, here's another "simple first step" for Europe "towards redemption" (in the eyes of the Russians): withdraw all military and financial support for Ukraine, and refuse to allow transit for weapons sent to it. How does that one make you feel? Do you think Europe will take it? It's probably only a little less likely than Russia taking your option.

> It works both ways you know. Europe cannot afford to lose face either. Imagine EU can be blackmailed by Russia! Wouldn't stand a chance against the US or China.

Exactly my point.

> The EU clearly believes they can win this fight so why should it withdraw support to Ukraine?

I never said they should. I said that a proposal that Russia unilaterally withdraw is not actually an "easy" one because it would feel to the Russian leadership like the EU withdrawing would feel to your typical Westerner.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#139

Post by tjoff » Tue, Sep 13, 2022, 4:47 PM UTC

nikolay wrote: post #122

iSnow wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And what's wrong with stop-gap measures to prevent an energy crisis?

As we can see, sanctions and arm-twisting are not stopping the war, not weakening Russia. Not even politically given the recent elections in Russia! Even Ukraine keeps buying Russian gas and I can't recall any comment from otherwise very vocal Zenesky about it! If there are supply issues, is due to all the nonsense coming from EU, which only hurts it, not Russia. Even if EU deversifies from Russia, it will be at a de…

How can we see that?

Sanctions are long term. We are not long term yet.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#140

Post by asdajksah2123 » Tue, Sep 13, 2022, 4:49 PM UTC

phh wrote: post #116

The_Colonel wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1) in the short term Europe is not cutting gas from Russia, it's the other way round 2) in the long term, Europe is trying to get independent from Russian gas so that 1) will not happen again Europe is trying to get away from being dependent from Russian gas for strategic, not humanistic reasons.

That being said, I hope we plan on no longer depending on Qatar either, because their stability doesn't seem a given either.

That would be the smart move. To greatly increase conservation (heat pumps, better insulation, etc. are low hanging fruits that will more than pay for themselves in a few years), reduce car driving in favor of cheaper and better public transport and/or bikes/ebikes, and to increase wind and solar power, both of which are as cheap if not cheaper than most sources of fossil fuels and can be brought online within months.

If Europe does not do this, then they will absolutely deserve the impact of the future geopolitical shocks that will inevitably increase as climate change causes migrations, inflation, increasing natural disasters, and ensuing political instability in fossil fuel providing nations, which are not coincidentally among the most ripe for political revolt.