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European natural gas imports and storage reserves

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Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#111

Post by iSnow »

js8 wrote: post #71
iSnow wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>We need serious attempts and ongoing discussion about how to stop military escalation. Bit late in the day, isn't it? The EU leaders were trying to talk to Putin till their eyes glassed over and Biden was willing to talk to Russia about legit security concerns. Yet, what did that get us? Military escalation. Looking back, maybe the West should have put a couple of tank divisions around Kyiv and Charkiv and tell Puti…

> Biden was willing to talk to Russia about legit security concerns Jeffrey Sachs claimed on Democracy Now that USA refused the diplomatic talks with Russia in November 2021. France, Germany and NATO tried, but apparently Putin felt that US is a key player. Whether true or not, it was wrong for the US to act as if it's just Ukraine's (and Europe's) problem, because it isn't - US has been providing Ukraine with some m…

There's a series of videos that document how Macron talked to Putin (including the famous one where Putin cuts him short because he has to train for ice hockey), and Macron clearly says he has the message from Biden that he'd meet Putin. That must have been in February.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#112

Post by iSnow »

js8 wrote: post #102
nradov wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That isn't a relevant question. The goal is to contain Russian expansionism, not to minimize deaths.

Well, our values seem to differ, then. I don't mind Russian expansion unless there are dead people in its wake. I think saving the lives should always trump the national pride.

>I don't mind Russian expansion unless there are dead people in its wake.

Well, you can't have one without the other, there's clear evidence of that going back decades.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#113

Post by makomk »

blub wrote: post #80
stoltzmann wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has been invading it's neighbors for centuries. Eastern Europeans do remember that. Joining NATO is not only about the conflict today, it's due to pretty much all generations in the area suffering due to their aggressive neighbor further to the east.

Nearly every country in Europe has been invading its neighbors for centuries, that’s what normal looks like in Europe. In fact some countries liked invasions so much, that they invaded countries all over the world. Joining NATO is not at all only up to the countries which apply. The US is more or less the game maker, with big countries like Germany, France, the UK etc. also having an important voice. It’s not unexpec…

> Nearly every country in Europe has been invading its neighbors for centuries,

Which was horrendously destructive, and the two World Wars fought using more modern weaponry were particularly awful. In fact, avoiding similar wars in Europe was part of the original justification for creating the EU, Europe has benefited tremenously from the almost a century of near-peace it's experienced, and this makes Russia's recent actions basically an existential threat to the rest of Europe.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#114

Post by distances »

dnh44 wrote: post #91
distances wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We should all be lobbying for a large neutral buffer zone between US-aligned Europe and Russia As long as that buffer is inside Russia, I would be fine with it as I suppose most others would. It's not OK to suggest that countries can have a sphere of influence in 21st century. Each country chooses their alignment and alliance independently. Russia has repeatedly shown to be a poor neighbour, so it shouldn't be a su…

Do you not think that the US has a huge sphere of influence? It seems to me that the US can and does take any action it wishes to outside its borders. Sometimes those actions have a good moral justification and sometimes they don’t. >US and Russia simply can not agree between themselves what should be Ukraine's place in the world. I’ll argue the opposite. The Ukraine has no inherent right to join NATO. Ukraine isn’t…

> The Ukraine has no inherent right to join NATO.

This is not what is argued. I agree with you, it's of course up to NATO and EU to decide who they accept as members, and they may include Russian interests in the decision if they want.

Point is that Russia has no say over Ukraine's ambitions. The war started because Ukraine wanted away from Russia and moved towards Western values. This is unquestionably Ukraine's right. And if they don't succeed at joining the EU, then their place may be a non-aligned country with Western values and ambitions. That Russia must simply accept and move on.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#115

Post by iSnow »

nikolay wrote: post #86
iSnow wrote: post #41

With a couple of FSRU terminals coming online during the next year, Europe might be OK, but it's going to be a problem. Storage is high for the season, and growing, but total gas delivered is very low. When the winter cold comes, storage will be depleted much faster than in the last years, and even if no gas shortages occur, storage will be very empty in spring - maybe too low to refill them till next winter.

So, once of a sudden, Europe is fine with shale gas as long as it's from another country. Europe seems fine with gas from Qatar as well, which also is waging a cruel war in Yemen with tons of deliberate civilian casulties!

And what's wrong with stop-gap measures to prevent an energy crisis?

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#116

Post by phh »

The_Colonel wrote: post #90
nikolay wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, once of a sudden, Europe is fine with shale gas as long as it's from another country. Europe seems fine with gas from Qatar as well, which also is waging a cruel war in Yemen with tons of deliberate civilian casulties!

1) in the short term Europe is not cutting gas from Russia, it's the other way round 2) in the long term, Europe is trying to get independent from Russian gas so that 1) will not happen again Europe is trying to get away from being dependent from Russian gas for strategic, not humanistic reasons.

That being said, I hope we plan on no longer depending on Qatar either, because their stability doesn't seem a given either.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#117

Post by MagnumOpus »

phh wrote: post #116
The_Colonel wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1) in the short term Europe is not cutting gas from Russia, it's the other way round 2) in the long term, Europe is trying to get independent from Russian gas so that 1) will not happen again Europe is trying to get away from being dependent from Russian gas for strategic, not humanistic reasons.

That being said, I hope we plan on no longer depending on Qatar either, because their stability doesn't seem a given either.

Dependence only starts at 10%+ of import shares... Europe is now dependent on Russia and Norway, and slightly dependent on Algeria. Any single other source be it Azerbaijan or LNG from US/Qatar/wherever is too small to cause the price jumps we've seen (and therefore not big enough to matter politically)...

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#118

Post by js8 »

KptMarchewa wrote: post #82
wil421 wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t really think so. At the time Taipei was saying to not take them seriously and hopefully they would support dual representation seats in the UN soon. [1] Instead of having a Cold War with China and proxy wars, we intertwined our economies much like MAD except with mutually assured economy destruction. [1] https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/local/archives/2001/09/12/0...

The scenario with China is the same as Soviet Union in 20-30s, 60-70s and Russia in 00s-now, just not fully resolved yet. You prop up hard authoritarian or totalitarian government with trade. They get strong, and instead of "democratizing" they take a hard line and endanger democracies. Europe also had economic MAD with Russia, yet they did not care. Now they flare gas and destroy Ukrainian cities. https://en.wikiped…

I think Russia actually does care - Putin recently said that closing the natural gas supply was in retaliation to EU's economic sanctions.

Are you suggesting the West should deliberately keep countries poorer, in the fear of them becoming (more) authoritarian? I think that would be wrong (and also counterproductive) thing to do.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#119

Post by tablespoon »

bhaak wrote: post #11
roenxi wrote: post #6

Economies, when left alone, are about as resilient as cockroaches and much more brutal about securing themselves. The situation is a serious blow to the pride of the European politicians who look like they've been mishandling energy policy for years (where are the nuclear reactors?). But realistically they'll probably survive in practice. It'll be painful. The issue is that somehow the West has taken Iraq 2.0 and is…

What diplomatic off ramp does Russia need? There is a simple first step towards redemption and that is get out of Ukraine right now. Better yesterday. Western Europe just learned a painful lesson that you can't trust Russia. Eastern Europe tried to hammer that point into the brains of the other European politicians but it didn't work until now.

> What diplomatic off ramp does Russia need?

One that saves face, to at least some degree.

> There is a simple first step towards redemption and that is get out of Ukraine right now. Better yesterday.

Simple for you, because you're not the one losing face For example, here's another "simple first step" for Europe "towards redemption" (in the eyes of the Russians): withdraw all military and financial support for Ukraine, and refuse to allow transit for weapons sent to it. How does that one make you feel? Do you think Europe will take it? It's probably only a little less likely than Russia taking your option.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#120

Post by js8 »

iSnow wrote: post #108
gdy wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just like Cuba wanted to host Soviet missiles in 1962. Oddly, the US didn't think 'there is nothing we can do' and was about to start WW3 over it.

So, uhm, which country in central/eastern Europe hosts NATO nuclear missiles again? That's just whataboutism.

According to https://icanw.org, Germany and Turkey currently host U.S. nuclear weapons.
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