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European natural gas imports and storage reserves

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Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#51

Post by distances »

roenxi wrote: post #29
jeromegv wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There should be more serious grappling with why the Russians did this (and Crimea in 2014) than "Putin bad". Why don't you give us your explanation? It's just very odd to advocate for an appeasement policy when the aggressor keeps wanting more (first Crimea, then tried to take the whole Ukraine by going straight for the capital). It wasn't just Eastern Ukraine with Russian-speaking population, they went straight to…

Quoted post unavailable.

> We should all be lobbying for a large neutral buffer zone between US-aligned Europe and Russia

As long as that buffer is inside Russia, I would be fine with it as I suppose most others would.

It's not OK to suggest that countries can have a sphere of influence in 21st century. Each country chooses their alignment and alliance independently. Russia has repeatedly shown to be a poor neighbour, so it shouldn't be a surprise to them if independent countries decide to turn away from Russia.

US and Russia simply can not agree between themselves what should be Ukraine's place in the world. That kind of world order does not exist any more.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#52

Post by modo_mario »

Schroedingersat wrote: post #20
roenxi wrote: post #6

Economies, when left alone, are about as resilient as cockroaches and much more brutal about securing themselves. The situation is a serious blow to the pride of the European politicians who look like they've been mishandling energy policy for years (where are the nuclear reactors?). But realistically they'll probably survive in practice. It'll be painful. The issue is that somehow the West has taken Iraq 2.0 and is…

> where are the nuclear reactors? Same place as usual. Decades behind schedule, 3x over budget, often cancelled, and then sitting idle in spite of near unlimited public subsidy. All while tying up enough money in cleanup costs for a single disaster to double worldwide wind capacity.

Somehow this does not seem to be an issue for most nuclear power plants built in the past in Europe or most built elsewhere today. Here in Belgium the reactors were built and gridconnected in 4-6 years and China still seems to pull similar with it's French or more modern designs.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#53

Post by phicoh »

steve_adams_86 wrote: post #31
ben_bai wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To add: They are idling b.c. 1) some are old and under disrepair and 2) it's so hot right now, that there is not enough cooling to run them at full load.

I had no idea outputs are hindered by weather. Do you know if this applies to newer reactors as well, or just older ones France is operating?

This can in theory happen to any steam-based power plant. Using steam to generate electricity is about 30% efficient. So you still need to get rid of the other 70% of heat that is generated, but not converted to electricity.

So it would also happen to power plants that burn coal.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#54

Post by ptero »

rjzzleep wrote: post #17
starkd wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In fairness, there are many who got it wrong on China. Not just Kissinger. Many made a lot of money off of China as an emerging market. Trying to calm the situation down in Ukraine is to his credit. Few seem to be calling for a ceasefire. On the contrary, they seem to doing all they can to scuttle any kind of agreement.

I don't like the guy, and I absolutely don't agree with most of what him and his administration did. But the one thing that they got right(which every person outside of the collective west seems to understand) is that only a complete madman would throw the biggest nuclear power, the biggest natural resource country and the biggest missile manufacturer in the world right into the arms of the biggest manufacturing powe…

"Into the arms" is a pretty big overstatement. China is not a friend of Russia. It has its own goals and challenges.

And many challenges they do have: China made a huge progress on industrialization, put some checks on corruption and conquered widespread hunger, but it is still a mostly poor, agrarian country with a rapidly aging population. They, absolutely rationally, jump at the option of cheaper energy import, but I would not read that as a long-term support of the Russian view of the world (which, I heard from several folks, they often despise). They pursue their own agenda. My 2c.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#55

Post by stoltzmann »

roenxi wrote: post #44
stoltzmann wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US has not been marching NATO towards Russia. It's ex-eastern bloc countries willingly joining the alliance to be protected from Russian aggression. If Russia did not have a long history of invading their neighbors, there would be no need or will to join the alliance.

If, say, Cuba joined a Russian military alliance of their own free will and started setting up a military installation with a couple of Russian missiles of uncertain providence, would the US tut-tut quietly or would it be a war situation? Because as I recall it was considered a major crisis that nearly doomed us all. And Cuba is further from the US than Ukraine is from Russia. Those countries should have been vetoed…

If Cuba decides to align itself with the USSR, then it has the right to do so. Same as Ukraine has the right to align with the West rather than Russia.

>There should be no countries aligned with the US military within a very wide margin of Russia

Why, just because Russia wants that, so that it's free to invade it's neighbors? People in Eastern Europe do want to be part of NATO for a simple reason - not to have to worry about their big neighbor deciding that it's time for a "liberation". This is not about aggression, this is about not being invaded.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#56

Post by gdy »

modo_mario wrote: post #43
gdy wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Western Europe just learned a painful lesson that you can't trust Russia. " Russia learnt that it cannot trust West when NATO started expanding into Eastern Europe and ex-USSR not too long after Warsaw pact and the USSR dissolved. Quite strange to say that West 'trusted' Russia after it betrayed Russia.

Verbal face to face agreements that go against the explicit wish of the countries involved which you give no agency? Should a finger be pointed at the agreement regarding Ukraine giving up the USSR nukes?

"which you give no agency"

It takes two to tango. Those countries didn't promise anything to Russia, but the West did.

"Should a finger be pointed"

Yes, please. But be sure to read the memorandum to the end, where you will find the Annex describing West's and Russia's commitment to the common inclusive security system for all Europe. The NATO expansion that followed is nothing like that.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#57

Post by phicoh »

kennend3 wrote: post #42
steve_adams_86 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had no idea outputs are hindered by weather. Do you know if this applies to newer reactors as well, or just older ones France is operating?

France claims two things: - Reactors are seasonally idle and will ramp back up for winter - During this normally idle time, they do maintenance https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/minister-fren... Perhaps this idea that "half of France's reactors are idle" is partly true, partly scare tactics from the "anti-nuke" group? Nuclear reactors require vast amounts of cooling water so timing your "down time" to co…

This summer, France has been importing significant amounts of electricity from countries that burn gas or coal. You don't do that if you have plenty of nuclear power available.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#58

Post by wil421 »

KptMarchewa wrote: post #22
rjzzleep wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you're describing is basically why Kissinger et al lobbied to kick out Taiwan from the UN, lobbied to shut down Taiwan's nuclear weapons program at the UN and worked so hard to intertwine US and Chinese economies. It's also the reason why Kissinger had that speech and the WEF advising the political leadership of the west to change course. It doesn't really matter though, there seems to be no way to have a reason…

>What you're describing is basically why Kissinger et al lobbied to kick out Taiwan from the UN, lobbied to shut down Taiwan's nuclear weapons program at the UN and worked so hard to intertwine US and Chinese economies. Which turned out to be worst of possible policies.

I don’t really think so. At the time Taipei was saying to not take them seriously and hopefully they would support dual representation seats in the UN soon. [1]

Instead of having a Cold War with China and proxy wars, we intertwined our economies much like MAD except with mutually assured economy destruction.

[1] https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/local/archives/2001/09/12/0...

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#59

Post by stoltzmann »

gdy wrote: post #50
wil421 wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh sure, I wonder why Eastern Europe wants to join NATO. Hmmm, I wonder why countries who were on the fence about joining NATO have suddenly fast tracked applications in 2022?

You are justifying an action by the reaction to it. It's like saying that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is justified by the Ukrainian drones and rockets attacking Russian cities [0] and villages near Ukrainian border. [0] https://t.me/zhest_belgorod/16230

Russia has been invading it's neighbors for centuries. Eastern Europeans do remember that.

Joining NATO is not only about the conflict today, it's due to pretty much all generations in the area suffering due to their aggressive neighbor further to the east.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#60

Post by gdy »

iSnow wrote: post #45
gdy wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Western Europe just learned a painful lesson that you can't trust Russia. " Russia learnt that it cannot trust West when NATO started expanding into Eastern Europe and ex-USSR not too long after Warsaw pact and the USSR dissolved. Quite strange to say that West 'trusted' Russia after it betrayed Russia.

Russia has no say over Eastern Europ and ex-USSR countries. If they want to join NATO, there is nothing Russia can do. Justifying a war based on this is just very wrong.

Just like Cuba wanted to host Soviet missiles in 1962.

Oddly, the US didn't think 'there is nothing we can do' and was about to start WW3 over it.

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