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Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

nature.com

111–120 of 187 posts

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#111
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That article only says it’s the first this century.

As long as you define century as 2000-2100, and not 1922-2022...

“This century” is fixed to start at 2000 until 2100, same as this decade is 2020–2029.

“Last hundred years” for the former interpretation.

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#112
post #56

Reminder that population is Pakistan's population 6x it was at 1950. In 2050 its expected to be 370 million people compared to 37 million in 1950. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Pakistan

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that Pakistan's population in 2050 will be closer to 37 million than to 370 million.

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#113

I clicked back through the years available for my city on weatherspark.com Back in the 90s, never above 90-91 in Sept. In the last 10 years we started seeing 94-95 in Sept. Coincidentally air travel has doubled in that time period; from 2.25 billion people flying in 2010 to 4.56 billion in 2019. Of course that cratered since 2020. Thanks AirBnB and other apps that make burning fossil fuels a thoughtless, trivial thin…

> Thanks AirBnB and other apps that make burning fossil fuels a thoughtless, trivial thing?

Your outrage is misdirected to something you probably personally relate to. Leisure travel is a minuscule component of the carbon in the atmosphere. Leisure travel is a fly hitching a ride on the beast that is global logistics, and AirBnb making leisure travel slightly cheaper and easier is a drop in the bucket for all leisure travel in general.

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#114

I clicked back through the years available for my city on weatherspark.com Back in the 90s, never above 90-91 in Sept. In the last 10 years we started seeing 94-95 in Sept. Coincidentally air travel has doubled in that time period; from 2.25 billion people flying in 2010 to 4.56 billion in 2019. Of course that cratered since 2020. Thanks AirBnB and other apps that make burning fossil fuels a thoughtless, trivial thin…

I doubt people going on a vacation a couple times per year is even a line item in the list of causes of burning fossil fuels. However, at the beginning of the pandemic, with fewer cargo vessels and even fewer personal vehicles burning fuel, we saw a measureable improvement to the environment within days.

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#115

I think it's worth pointing out that the impacts of climate change are often presented as singular effects: rising sea level, warmer summers, increased drought, etc. But as we can see here there is also a very strong interaction effect between all of these (and it tends to magnify the issues rather than having them cancel out). This is also why many major climate reports tend to inherently be on the conservative side…

> The rate of CO2 accumulating the atmosphere is accelerating

It's a small point, but the ratio of CO2 on the atmosphere is definitively not accelerating. On the last couple of decades it has been growing steadily, and the noisy few months look like they have negative acceleration.

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#116
post #112
post #56

Reminder that population is Pakistan's population 6x it was at 1950. In 2050 its expected to be 370 million people compared to 37 million in 1950. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Pakistan

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that Pakistan's population in 2050 will be closer to 37 million than to 370 million.

Nukes?

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#117
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

naive q: does that still help if the aquifer gets saturated?

Is an aquifer ever likely to get saturated? I have no expertise in this area, but in the US at least the concern is always over aquifers being depleted , not so fully saturated that they can't absorb more water. My understanding was that it takes very long time for water to actually get from ground level down into an aquifer.

This depends entirely on where you live. Sure in the Southwest, there's a big problem with drought. But along the Gulf Coast, the water table is astonishingly close to the surface. When my family put in an in-ground pool in Louisiana, they had to start filling the concrete pool with water even before finishing it because if they left it empty, the surrounding water table would push it up out of the ground like a floating boat.

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As long as you define century as 2000-2100, and not 1922-2022...

“This century” is fixed to start at 2000 until 2100, same as this decade is 2020–2029. “Last hundred years” for the former interpretation.

Or 2001 until 2101, if you're being pedantic about the Nth century AD/CE.

(Because there is no year 0 in the AD/CE calendar, so the first century in the calendar starts in year 1, the second in 101, etc...)

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#119
post #82

"Pakistan is home to over 7,200 glaciers, more than anywhere outside the poles. Rising temperatures, linked to climate change, are likely making many of them melt faster and earlier, adding water to rivers and streams that are already swollen by rainfall." https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2022/8/30/23327341/pa...

> Pakistan is home to over 7,200 glaciers, more than anywhere outside the poles It seems odd to give a measure of ice as the count of the pieces.

See 'List of longest glaciers on Earth in non-polar regions'

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_glaciers

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#120
post #116
post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that Pakistan's population in 2050 will be closer to 37 million than to 370 million.

Nukes?

The population of a country peaks a few years after it has gotten developed. As in low child mortality, high educated population, etc.
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