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Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

nature.com

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Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#51

Post by 11235813213455 »

peteradio wrote: post #15
CommanderData wrote: post #10

I read someone else suggest Permaculture as a way of mitigating some of the affects of monsoons in these types of areas. Does anyone have any evidences of such a thing working?

Sounds ridiculous on its face, and that is as a practitioner of permaculture. I couldn't really get my head around how it could possibly make even a slight dent against the massive flooding witnessed here.

permacultures are some super carbon sinks, anti-erosion systems, absorption systems and organic food producers, each one is just a grain of sand (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sorites_paradox), but many grains do the job along with lifestyle changes

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#52

Post by ben_w »

prpl wrote: post #4

no mention of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai eruption? It sounds like that eruption at least changed atmospheric composition by throwing tons of water into it.

Not directly, though I can't guess at indirect effects. If 100% of the water from that landed in the flooded area of Pakistan, it would've only added 2.6 mm:

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=146%20million%20cubic%2...

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#53

Post by alar44 »

Panino wrote: post #36
peteradio wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds ridiculous on its face, and that is as a practitioner of permaculture. I couldn't really get my head around how it could possibly make even a slight dent against the massive flooding witnessed here.

When Gabe Brown switched from conventional agriculture to regenerative agriculture, he increased water infiltration in his soil from 0.5 inches (1.25cm) per hour to 30 inches (75cm) per hour. So imagine if he and all his neighbors had the same beautiful soil -- flooding just couldn't happen. I haven't seen a list of such measurements from permaculture, but I know it can be used to regreen deserts (as shown in Jordan,…

Yeah just imagine if a billion people completely changed their way of life.

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#54

Post by AftHurrahWinch »

alexose wrote: post #37
time_to_smile wrote: post #3

I think it's worth pointing out that the impacts of climate change are often presented as singular effects: rising sea level, warmer summers, increased drought, etc. But as we can see here there is also a very strong interaction effect between all of these (and it tends to magnify the issues rather than having them cancel out). This is also why many major climate reports tend to inherently be on the conservative side…

It's not a foregone conclusion that we're doomed to a life of accelerating climate change. We could deploy solar geoengineering to see us through the transition to renewables. Then, as fossil sources are retired and direct air capture comes online, gradually draw down our geoengineering efforts. It may seem like a non-starter right now, but what about five years from now? What if our best climate models agree that it…

I think it's a political problem, not a technical problem. If we can imagine that our best climate models could drive decision making to enable geoengineering... why don't our best climate models drive earlier interventions?

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#55

Post by peteradio »

Panino wrote: post #36
peteradio wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds ridiculous on its face, and that is as a practitioner of permaculture. I couldn't really get my head around how it could possibly make even a slight dent against the massive flooding witnessed here.

When Gabe Brown switched from conventional agriculture to regenerative agriculture, he increased water infiltration in his soil from 0.5 inches (1.25cm) per hour to 30 inches (75cm) per hour. So imagine if he and all his neighbors had the same beautiful soil -- flooding just couldn't happen. I haven't seen a list of such measurements from permaculture, but I know it can be used to regreen deserts (as shown in Jordan,…

Any link to read about this 0.5 - 30 inch/hr conversion? Cultivated soil or already wetted soil will absorb much more readily than not, was this a carefully controlled experiment? Anyway it would take some serious modelling not handwavy yes or no as to whether permaculture/regenerative techniques (and a well defined definition of success of mitigation) could work. I absolutely admit that it could help on the margins, but would it have really have changed the image featured in this comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32692060 ? Is the supposition that this water would find its way to some aquifer?

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#57

Post by buscoquadnary »

polygamous_bat wrote: post #49
hotpotamus wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

I believe this is one of the largest challenges when trying to make effective changes in the system to address climate change: those whose actions can create the largest changes are not the ones who have to bear the burden first or directly. I really don't know how to appeal to a crowd denying all the evidence, so devoid in empathy for people across the world, while, as an immigrant, I can see my neighboring countrie…

> I believe this is one of the largest challenges when trying to make effective changes in the system to address climate change: those whose actions can create the largest changes are not the ones who have to bear the burden first or directly.

You mean the corporations and companies that continue to produce emissions on a massive scale while trying to constantly shame me and tell me what a bad person I am for having the audacity to drive to the grocery story once a week or so?

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#58

Post by hotpotamus »

polygamous_bat wrote: post #49
hotpotamus wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

I believe this is one of the largest challenges when trying to make effective changes in the system to address climate change: those whose actions can create the largest changes are not the ones who have to bear the burden first or directly. I really don't know how to appeal to a crowd denying all the evidence, so devoid in empathy for people across the world, while, as an immigrant, I can see my neighboring countrie…

That's an aspect, but the thing I find the most maddening is that people cast doubt on the science by saying that the effects of changing the mixture of gasses in our atmosphere are ultimately not completely knowable. That's obviously true, but to me that's all the more reason why we probably should avoid doing it as much as possible.

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#59

Post by asah »

Panino wrote: post #36
peteradio wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds ridiculous on its face, and that is as a practitioner of permaculture. I couldn't really get my head around how it could possibly make even a slight dent against the massive flooding witnessed here.

When Gabe Brown switched from conventional agriculture to regenerative agriculture, he increased water infiltration in his soil from 0.5 inches (1.25cm) per hour to 30 inches (75cm) per hour. So imagine if he and all his neighbors had the same beautiful soil -- flooding just couldn't happen. I haven't seen a list of such measurements from permaculture, but I know it can be used to regreen deserts (as shown in Jordan,…

naive q: does that still help if the aquifer gets saturated?

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#60

Post by nerdponx »

mring33621 wrote: post #50

Climate change is real and has changed the temporal distribution of rainfall, often increasing the interval between rainfalls, while also increasing the amount that falls, during rainy periods. Longer durations of 'no rain' cause the ground harden to a much less porous, concrete-like surface that cannot absorb the rain, when it does come, fast enough. So the water pools and flows, causing flood conditions.

The article also blames high amounts of glacial melt (to the point of bursting through glacial dams) sending a lot of extra water through waterways in a short amount of time.
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