Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?
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Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?
#2No post body was provided.
Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?
#3I think it's worth pointing out that the impacts of climate change are often presented as singular effects: rising sea level, warmer summers, increased drought, etc. But as we can see here there is also a very strong interaction effect between all of these (and it tends to magnify the issues rather than having them cancel out).
This is also why many major climate reports tend to inherently be on the conservative side: it's really, really hard to correctly model these interactions so you can only earnestly report the predicted change in individual variables rather than the impact on the system.
And keep in mind this is not the "new normal", we're entering a period of transition that will not end within our life times. The rate of CO2 accumulating the atmosphere is accelerating and the rate of methane in the atmosphere is rapidly accelerating. We will likely see a blue ocean event in the next 20 years and it's really hard to imagine how that will even play out with the global climate, Thwaites glacier could collapse without much warning (very rapidly causing sea level rise beyond our current projections), the AMOC slow down could reach a tipping point, etc.
Everything we're witnessing now will in the future seem relatively mild.
Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?
#4no mention of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai eruption?
It sounds like that eruption at least changed atmospheric composition by throwing tons of water into it.
Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?
#5no mention of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai eruption? It sounds like that eruption at least changed atmospheric composition by throwing tons of water into it.
Do you have any sources that discuss this?
Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?
#6I think it's worth pointing out that the impacts of climate change are often presented as singular effects: rising sea level, warmer summers, increased drought, etc. But as we can see here there is also a very strong interaction effect between all of these (and it tends to magnify the issues rather than having them cancel out). This is also why many major climate reports tend to inherently be on the conservative side…
I had to look up what a "blue ocean event" was. So, for others, here it is:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_sea_ice_decline#Impacts...
Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?
#7I think it's worth pointing out that the impacts of climate change are often presented as singular effects: rising sea level, warmer summers, increased drought, etc. But as we can see here there is also a very strong interaction effect between all of these (and it tends to magnify the issues rather than having them cancel out). This is also why many major climate reports tend to inherently be on the conservative side…
No post body was provided.
Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?
#8The extent of the flood is massive: https://static.dw.com/image/62963931_7.png (source: https://www.dw.com/en/pakistanis-outraged-by-inept-governmen...)
Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?
#9While it's absolutely true there is a confluence of factors here (eg glacial melt, heat wave and a depression) and that these events are more likely with global warming, I'm disappointed this article didn't cover another important factor: dams.
Flooding used to be a much bigger problem in the Western United States and it was solved with dams. Yes, there is thd risk of dam failure but we're weighing up the real and present risk of flooding regardless against the possible risk of dam failure.
Unfortunately, there has been increasing opposition from the environmental lobby against building dams in the developing world in recent decades (eg [1]) and this matters when such countries are usually dependent on the World Bank and/or IMF to fund their construction.
Dams not only reduce the risk of extreme flooding but also provide cheap hydroelectric power, which is of incredible value to a developing nation.
Pakistan has some dams but clearly not enough. Given these extreme events that led to this catastrophic flooding are increasingly common and that no action in climate change will change this in the short or even medium term, it's time to build dams. Lots of them.
[1]: https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals...
Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?
#10I read someone else suggest Permaculture as a way of mitigating some of the affects of monsoons in these types of areas.
Does anyone have any evidences of such a thing working?