Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year? • Hacker News Board

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#31

Post by sebazzz » Fri, Sep 02, 2022, 4:08 PM UTC

morsch wrote: post #20

bagels wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have any sources that discuss this?

The undersea eruption also ejected 146 million tons of South Pacific Ocean water into the stratosphere.[56] The amount of water vapor ejected was 10 percent of the atmosphere's typical stock.[57] It was enough to temporarily warm the surface of Earth. This water vapour was estimated to remain for 5–10 years.[55] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Hunga_Tonga%E2%80%93Hunga...

Interesting as water vapour is in itself also a greenhouse gas.

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#32

Post by barbazoo » Fri, Sep 02, 2022, 4:09 PM UTC

88840-8855 wrote: post #17

barbazoo wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there such a thing as "clean gas" and if so, how does Russian gas qualify here? Also, isn't it Russia that's throttling gas delivery to 20% right now?

Quoted post unavailable.

Russia invaded Ukraine. What did the EU do to justify this? I don't mean what Russia's reasons are (NATO expansion) but what morally justifies it.

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#33

Post by eldaisfish » Fri, Sep 02, 2022, 4:12 PM UTC

jmyeet wrote: post #9

While it's absolutely true there is a confluence of factors here (eg glacial melt, heat wave and a depression) and that these events are more likely with global warming, I'm disappointed this article didn't cover another important factor: dams. Flooding used to be a much bigger problem in the Western United States and it was solved with dams. Yes, there is thd risk of dam failure but we're weighing up the real and pr…

dams work well in regions with limited rainfall. The indian subcontinent receives most of its annual rainfall during the monsoon. Periods of 100 mm/hour of rainfall are not uncommon. Annual rainfall numbers in southern asia are often 1000 mm. North america's closest regions with that level of rainfall are all west of the rocky mountains.

Dams are unlikely to help here and pose a serious risk if they break - which they can in a region prone to earthquakes.

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#34

Post by jibe » Fri, Sep 02, 2022, 4:12 PM UTC

88840-8855 wrote: post #16

jibe wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How about not shutting down German nuclear plants, and not buying "clean natural gas from mother russia".

Beep boop. Not a Russian bot, a German one who is just pissed of by the current politics and the elitist decisions. And I hate it that any alternative proposed to the current kamikaze politics is called "Russian bots". Yes, German nuclear plants was yet another trash decision and pushed again by the fear agitated by the Green Party. And yet, the majority wants nuclear, the Greens are against it. We need REALPOLITIK a…

Get natural gas from Canada and the US. North America can supply Europe. Frack in Germany, supply yourself.

You have to choose, is Ukraine worth short term financial pain? The choice is to surrender Ukraine to Russia and take the gas, or suffer for a year financially while you ramp up other energy sources.

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#35

Post by mempko » Fri, Sep 02, 2022, 4:14 PM UTC

ageofwant wrote: post #24

time_to_smile wrote: post #3

I think it's worth pointing out that the impacts of climate change are often presented as singular effects: rising sea level, warmer summers, increased drought, etc. But as we can see here there is also a very strong interaction effect between all of these (and it tends to magnify the issues rather than having them cancel out). This is also why many major climate reports tend to inherently be on the conservative side…

Pretty disheartening to see the downvotes in a forum like hn which are supposed to be informed about these things. If people that are supposed to be able to critically assess data and have access to as much information they need to verify any claims come to the conclusion that you are full of shit, what hope is there to educate grandpa screaming at the wokes on the street.

I love technology and have to keep telling my friends that it's possible there won't be a computer industry in 30 years. I'm not joking. Our technology requires a highly complex and organized society to continue to function and develop. Complex and highly organized societies developed under a stable climate. We created societies built on cities that don't move.

If you love technology. If you love computers. Then global warming is your biggest threat and something you should care about deeply.

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#36

Post by Panino » Fri, Sep 02, 2022, 4:15 PM UTC

peteradio wrote: post #15

CommanderData wrote: post #10

I read someone else suggest Permaculture as a way of mitigating some of the affects of monsoons in these types of areas. Does anyone have any evidences of such a thing working?

Sounds ridiculous on its face, and that is as a practitioner of permaculture. I couldn't really get my head around how it could possibly make even a slight dent against the massive flooding witnessed here.

When Gabe Brown switched from conventional agriculture to regenerative agriculture, he increased water infiltration in his soil from 0.5 inches (1.25cm) per hour to 30 inches (75cm) per hour. So imagine if he and all his neighbors had the same beautiful soil -- flooding just couldn't happen.

I haven't seen a list of such measurements from permaculture, but I know it can be used to regreen deserts (as shown in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Arizona and elsewhere). And I assume permaculture vastly increases water infiltration. Geoff Lawton has videos showing Zaytuna Farm happily surviving drought and flood alike.

If farmers switched from conventional agriculture to some combination of regenerative agriculture and permaculture, most flooding would be prevented. Their own fields would easily infiltrate rain, eliminating runoff that builds up into flooding.

The article mentions that in addition to Pakistan getting double the normal amount of rain, increased glacier melt is filling the Indus river. I assume that in the theoretical situation of all farmers in Pakistan practicing regenerative ag or permaculture, that land on the Indus would flood. But not 1/3 of the country as we're seeing now, and the flooded areas would recover faster.

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#37

Post by alexose » Fri, Sep 02, 2022, 4:15 PM UTC

time_to_smile wrote: post #3

I think it's worth pointing out that the impacts of climate change are often presented as singular effects: rising sea level, warmer summers, increased drought, etc. But as we can see here there is also a very strong interaction effect between all of these (and it tends to magnify the issues rather than having them cancel out). This is also why many major climate reports tend to inherently be on the conservative side…

It's not a foregone conclusion that we're doomed to a life of accelerating climate change. We could deploy solar geoengineering to see us through the transition to renewables. Then, as fossil sources are retired and direct air capture comes online, gradually draw down our geoengineering efforts.

It may seem like a non-starter right now, but what about five years from now? What if our best climate models agree that it will do less damage to the planet than allowing the permafrost to thaw?

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#38

Post by Comevius » Fri, Sep 02, 2022, 4:16 PM UTC

prpl wrote: post #4

no mention of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai eruption? It sounds like that eruption at least changed atmospheric composition by throwing tons of water into it.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-022-2034-1

Unlikely. At least a single volcanic eruption is not enough to change the long-term climate trend, you need a clusters of eruptions to persist through centuries for that. HTHH will likely decrease the global mean surface temperatures by 0.004°C in the first year.

Compared to that human activity is a thousand times more significant, everything else is statistical noise next to it, which at least means that it is easy to spot.

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#39

Post by hotpotamus » Fri, Sep 02, 2022, 4:19 PM UTC

time_to_smile wrote: post #3

I think it's worth pointing out that the impacts of climate change are often presented as singular effects: rising sea level, warmer summers, increased drought, etc. But as we can see here there is also a very strong interaction effect between all of these (and it tends to magnify the issues rather than having them cancel out). This is also why many major climate reports tend to inherently be on the conservative side…

No post body was provided.

Re: Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

#40

Post by dylan604 » Fri, Sep 02, 2022, 4:19 PM UTC

eldaisfish wrote: post #29

time_to_smile wrote: post #3

I think it's worth pointing out that the impacts of climate change are often presented as singular effects: rising sea level, warmer summers, increased drought, etc. But as we can see here there is also a very strong interaction effect between all of these (and it tends to magnify the issues rather than having them cancel out). This is also why many major climate reports tend to inherently be on the conservative side…

also missing is yet another aspect of a very complex system - parched soil has lower ability to retain water. These floods follow an intense heatwave during which large swathes of pakistani soil dried up. Come the rains and you have a massive problem. Like you say, this is just the beginning. If floods like this happen in the Indian plains - and they will - the human and social costs will be immense.

we just saw this in the DFW area last week. 3 months of triple digit temps and zero precip followed by a single 24 hour period receiving 5-7" of rain. the ground was so hard, that it might as well have been concrete. that just allowed all of the water to run off into the streams that fed the lakes. fortunately, those lakes were well below normal levels, so this just helped them come back to where they were. if there were multiple days of that level of rain, a la Harvey, we'd have been really screwed.