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US Government Bans Export of Nvidia A100 and H100 GPUs to China and Russia

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Re: US Government Bans Export of Nvidia A100 and H100 GPUs to China and Russia

#141

Post by phantom_of_cato »

alphabetting wrote: post #114
modeless wrote: post #84

I'm starting to think it's a good idea to stock up on all the electronics you think you might need for the next decade. Because when China finally invades Taiwan, the supply of electronic devices worldwide is going to instantly disappear. How many electronic devices do you own that don't have any part of their supply chain in China or Taiwan or adjacent countries? The COVID shortages we all saw were practically busin…

The supply of TSMC chips won't disappear bc the US will defend Taiwan. It's far too important. The companies with major reliance on mainland China (Apple) are the ones that need to worry.

Physical production of things during a war is probably quite hard. Also, one of the likely scenarios for the war is a blockade enforced by missiles. [1]

[1]: NYT: How China Could Choke Taiwan (https://archive.ph/gS6qb)

Re: US Government Bans Export of Nvidia A100 and H100 GPUs to China and Russia

#142

Post by withinboredom »

RichardCNormos wrote: post #108
bottlepalm wrote: post #10

Sign of a coming AI arms race? If the image generation market is getting too saturated, maybe OpenAI can sell something to the government. No one has deeper pockets.

I've always hoped that the US would restrict hardware exports under ITAR, as AI is absolutely a military weapon. I doubt, though, that they will restrict the export of the raw material for creating AI: data.

They can’t even get their own companies to restrict the use of their citizen’s data lol.

Re: US Government Bans Export of Nvidia A100 and H100 GPUs to China and Russia

#143

Post by fabianhjr »

karmasimida wrote: post #117
fabianhjr wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Realistically speaking the datacenters / enterprise would have to buy the next best thing in the short term, though you are right in that China (being a planned economy) will take this as economic warfare, designate GPUs as strategic resource and invest in creating domestic production capacity. If high speed trains are anything to go by (China sends regards to the California High Speed Rail Project) then the US will…

That is contingent on China able to access other global markets for its own GPUs/chips Which I don't think is a given, it will become more like cold wars, where market access will become limited to allies only.

> That is contingent on China able to access other global markets for its own GPUs/chips

https://howmuch.net/articles/trade-timelapse-usa-china

Most of the world trades more with China than with the USA, if it is contingent on that then not only does China have access they are most often the biggest trading partner.

> it will become more like cold wars, where market access will become limited to allies only.

Yes, it seems like the USA has admitted marketplace defeat and will proceed to isolate themselves as much as possible.

Re: US Government Bans Export of Nvidia A100 and H100 GPUs to China and Russia

#144

Post by systemvoltage »

throw0101c wrote: post #61
RosanaAnaDana wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More likely a landwar in asia.

Not inconceivable …

The scariest aspect of geopolitics is how quickly things change. It is probably because normal times appear in slow motion geopolitically.

Re: US Government Bans Export of Nvidia A100 and H100 GPUs to China and Russia

#145

Post by ajmurmann »

xster wrote: post #106
xedrac wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems ridiculous that we don't officially acknowledge Taiwan. But to say it's not China, might be misleading. Does the Taiwanese government still make claim on China?

I think it's only ridiculous to the recipients of US MSM (which don't get me wrong, is hegemonic, but still insular). There's no confusion to it from the perspective of the RoC government (which claims a much wider legacy of the Qing government than the PRC does), the US government's official stance and 180 of 193 UN member states.

They do have a separate government in practice and seem to like it that way. Isn't that reason to see it as two separate countries?

Re: US Government Bans Export of Nvidia A100 and H100 GPUs to China and Russia

#146

Post by obblekk »

This doesn't just ban A100s. It bans those and "any future NVIDIA integrated circuit achieving both peak performance and chip-to-chip I/O performance equal to or greater than thresholds that are roughly equivalent to the A100."

It's a ceiling on the performance that can be exported. In an exponentially scaling industry, this is the equivalent of an announcement in advance of a complete ban on competitive products 2-3yrs out.

Given that both political parties have placed export limits on tech to China, it seems this is the new normal.

Re: US Government Bans Export of Nvidia A100 and H100 GPUs to China and Russia

#147

Post by woevdbz »

cdash wrote: post #136
alphabetting wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm doubt full capacity but I think there's no doubt the US will defend Taiwan with full force of military to protect those chips and this order is more evidence of that. They now seem to get how important AI is to future global order.

Yeah, and when China decides destroy their fabs with missiles. What are are you going to do then. In case you don't know, missile defense doesn't actually work well.

I don't think China will destroy the very thing they're trying to capture.

Re: US Government Bans Export of Nvidia A100 and H100 GPUs to China and Russia

#148

Post by dirtyid »

alphabetting wrote: post #114
modeless wrote: post #84

I'm starting to think it's a good idea to stock up on all the electronics you think you might need for the next decade. Because when China finally invades Taiwan, the supply of electronic devices worldwide is going to instantly disappear. How many electronic devices do you own that don't have any part of their supply chain in China or Taiwan or adjacent countries? The COVID shortages we all saw were practically busin…

The supply of TSMC chips won't disappear bc the US will defend Taiwan. It's far too important. The companies with major reliance on mainland China (Apple) are the ones that need to worry.

> TSMC chips won't disappear

Of course it will. US isn't capable of defending TW anymore. They may spoil an invasion, but there's nothing US can do to prevent PRC from trivially destroying infra the keeps fabs operating. You should expect the entire semi supply chain in East Asian (which supplies the world) to stop functioning if US tries to intervene on TW, especially using JP or SKR infra, nearly everythign critical is within 60m PRC missile range. The reality is PRC has much more leverage over global semi supply chain in even of war vs US who has leverage during peace via sanctions.

> major reliance

Are all in US in terms of high tech industry supported and actual patent fees extracted from production of semi. PRC will lose bunch of manufacturing jobs, but indigenous semi efforts will keep chugging along. Both will be reset to as far back as 1980s tech depending on how PRC escalates, which ultimately cripples US as tech leader more.

Re: US Government Bans Export of Nvidia A100 and H100 GPUs to China and Russia

#149

Post by alphabetting »

cdash wrote: post #136
alphabetting wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm doubt full capacity but I think there's no doubt the US will defend Taiwan with full force of military to protect those chips and this order is more evidence of that. They now seem to get how important AI is to future global order.

Yeah, and when China decides destroy their fabs with missiles. What are are you going to do then. In case you don't know, missile defense doesn't actually work well.

Well obviously if China wants to cripple the world's chip supply that would suck. They're not going to be allowed to control them though. Those fabs are rigged to be physically bricked if China is close to capturing TSMC anyways.

Re: US Government Bans Export of Nvidia A100 and H100 GPUs to China and Russia

#150

Post by woevdbz »

riku_iki wrote: post #122
alphabetting wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The supply of TSMC chips won't disappear bc the US will defend Taiwan. It's far too important. The companies with major reliance on mainland China (Apple) are the ones that need to worry.

there is no much defense from barrage of cruise missiles on tsmc facilities. Saudis couldn't defend their oil assets from Iran drone attack for example.

Bombing TSMC facilities would be extremely counterproductive to the CCP objectives.
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