251–260 of 266 posts
A great book, if you're interested in complex systems and feedback loops is Thinking in Systems by Donella Meadows. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/3828902-thinking-in-syst...
I just commented with the exact same book suggestion! Do you have any other suggestions on the same area?
IMO the problem is the perception that fast thinkers or fast decision makers are smart folks. I know a lots of people who would not give instant answers to problems, they will be always "I will come back to this, let me think through". They give much better solve, but take time. But we are surrounded by people who want fast solutions.
You have to define 'better'. If an entity can process their OODA loop faster than competing entities, they will have an advantage. I agree with you that people who are quick to talk in meetings can sometimes incorrectly come across as smarter, but I caution you to completely discount speed.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I really doubt this is where "nth order" comes from colloquially.
There are many examples in physics, for example: https://physics.stackexchange.com/questions/310875/second-or...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I am not particularily familiar with the connotation of the term second-order-thinking , but to me it implies the somewhat mathematical meaning of it. The first order might be some value (e.g. a voltage) and the second order might be the rate with which that voltage changes and the third the rate with which this rate changes etc. To me this implies that thinking on a higher order is somewhat about stepping back and v…
'order' has many meanings in mathematics, and I'm not sure of the best metaphor that is actually called an order there, but when people talk colloquially about 'second order effects' etc. IME they mean something like a vertex v2 (doing something) in response to a change to v1, where there exists a vertex vj and edges (v1, vj) & (vj, v2) - and implicitly no edge (v1, v2). Higher 'orders' similarly extending the chain.…
Applied Economics: Thinking Beyond Stage One by economist Thomas Sowell[0] explores this in good detail, applying it to political and economic policies, in his book. Housing policies, medicare and today's problem of defund the police can be better analysed if the framework of second-order thinking is used to view the pros and cons of such policies and their subsequent ramifications. Second-order thinking is a great m…
The same concept is the gist of a lot of 'Basic Economics', also by Sowell.. Good intentions are not enough. Solutions to one problem will always create incentives for others to exploit.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I am not particularily familiar with the connotation of the term second-order-thinking , but to me it implies the somewhat mathematical meaning of it. The first order might be some value (e.g. a voltage) and the second order might be the rate with which that voltage changes and the third the rate with which this rate changes etc. To me this implies that thinking on a higher order is somewhat about stepping back and v…
It's simply about looking further down up the casual chain, not stopping at the initial cause-effect: thinking about the effects of effect themselves (and, in third order, the effects of the effects of the effects, and so on). A simple example of failing to do so and only considering the first level cause-effect: "The British government, concerned about the number of venomous cobras in Delhi, offered a bounty for eve…
I believe we encounter second-order thinking in mundane day-to-day activities too which are generally categorized as 'instinct'; Say we drop the key under the table and we know before hand that we would hit our head if we get up under the table and so we crawl back(Or may be we've hit our head earlier and it becomes reinforcement learning?).
Then there are tasks which are totally dependent upon multi-order thinking like a game of chess (or) most other brain games.
I wonder if we could create a system to collect different second-order thinking decisions for different day-to-day activities to serve as a decision making tool powered by collective human knowledge?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
'order' has many meanings in mathematics, and I'm not sure of the best metaphor that is actually called an order there, but when people talk colloquially about 'second order effects' etc. IME they mean something like a vertex v2 (doing something) in response to a change to v1, where there exists a vertex vj and edges (v1, vj) & (vj, v2) - and implicitly no edge (v1, v2). Higher 'orders' similarly extending the chain.…
I think it’s simply order of events. If you do N, N+1 will happen
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think that's 3rd order, actually. Why does this remind me of Abbot and Costello? https://youtu.be/sShMA85pv8M?t=64
"If x, then y" is one implication, so that's first-order reasoning. "If y, then z" is second-order reasoning.
From my personal experience I can recommend the free online course “Introduction to Complexity” since it helped me develop a better understanding and intuition about these things: https://www.complexityexplorer.org/courses/144-introduction-... and also the book “The Art of interconnected thinking” from Frederic Vester (I am not sure if this is the correct translation, the German title is: “Die Kunst vernetzt zu denken”). But there are of course many other great resources to learn about complexity and systems thinking.
It is also increasingly important to think beyond our own (ideological, disciplinary, conditioned, etc.) “tunnel”, because many problems in the real world have multiple dimensions to them, just like there is not only black and white, not only grayscale, but all the colours of the rainbow. It is convenient to stay in one dimension (e.g. our own profession, a paradigm/worldview, a conceptual framework) because it makes us feel confident and secure. Often we can afford to do so if the implications of our decisions stay within the boundaries of our “tunnel”. But this is most often not the case in complex environments and being ignorant about those other dimensions can lead to miscommunication and failure to address the concerns of our clients, relationships, etc. So I would recommend not only nth-order thinking, but also multi-dimensional thinking (which may be included in the former, but should be emphasized more strongly I believe).
This article, and some of the comments here, seem to confuse "second-order" with "long-term". Long-term just means doing the same analysis far out into the future: "If I spend less on maintaining software product $LEGACY, I will save money. If I continue to do this, I will save more and more money by each passing month." Second-order means discovering neighbouring causal links. "If I spend less on maintaining softwar…