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Second-Order Thinking

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Re: Second-Order Thinking

#201

Post by Brian_K_White »

atoav wrote: post #86
kqr wrote: post #60

This article, and some of the comments here, seem to confuse "second-order" with "long-term". Long-term just means doing the same analysis far out into the future: "If I spend less on maintaining software product $LEGACY, I will save money. If I continue to do this, I will save more and more money by each passing month." Second-order means discovering neighbouring causal links. "If I spend less on maintaining softwar…

I am not particularily familiar with the connotation of the term second-order-thinking , but to me it implies the somewhat mathematical meaning of it. The first order might be some value (e.g. a voltage) and the second order might be the rate with which that voltage changes and the third the rate with which this rate changes etc. To me this implies that thinking on a higher order is somewhat about stepping back and v…

I don't know if this is quite the model the article describes, but I say this is at least a similar and equally useful model.

Re: Second-Order Thinking

#202

Post by brad0 »

A book I just finished that explains this quite well is Thinking in Systems: A Primer.

It touches on systems, modeling, nonlinearilites, etc.

I saw someone suggest another book on economics. Are there any other books people recommend for systems and multi-order thinking?

Re: Second-Order Thinking

#203

Post by brad0 »

andsoitis wrote: post #198

A great book, if you're interested in complex systems and feedback loops is Thinking in Systems by Donella Meadows. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/3828902-thinking-in-syst...

I just commented with the exact same book suggestion! Do you have any other suggestions on the same area?

Re: Second-Order Thinking

#205

Post by jrh206 »

mellavora wrote: post #163
noduerme wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aren't totally meaningless graphs the best though? ;) You're just bitter because you're already fourth order thinking... you assessed the whole thing as a dumbass waste of time. Also, never show people graphs when /ok, never mind

especially when the graph has a slope so you can calculate the derivative as an example of 2nd order thinking.

Which, by the way, seems to be heading towards infinity, which isn't right at all.

Re: Second-Order Thinking

#206

Post by mym1990 »

atq2119 wrote: post #191
smckk wrote: post #38

Applied Economics: Thinking Beyond Stage One by economist Thomas Sowell[0] explores this in good detail, applying it to political and economic policies, in his book. Housing policies, medicare and today's problem of defund the police can be better analysed if the framework of second-order thinking is used to view the pros and cons of such policies and their subsequent ramifications. Second-order thinking is a great m…

Ironically, a lot of economics sound-bites are all about ignoring first order effects in favor of questionable second order effects. I'm mostly thinking here about deficit spending discussions, where it's popular to inject worry about second-order effects creating a drag on the economy, e.g., crowding out. Meanwhile, it completely ignores the fact that the first-order effects are almost always all positive for the ec…

Some of this is because the first order effects have come and gone, and media is going to try and focus on the most current and relevant things. As you move through a timeline, second order effects will turn into first order effects and we will come up with a new set of second order effects.

Given that, I totally agree with you on the sentiment.

Re: Second-Order Thinking

#207

Post by philipov »

coldtea wrote: post #200
atoav wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not particularily familiar with the connotation of the term second-order-thinking , but to me it implies the somewhat mathematical meaning of it. The first order might be some value (e.g. a voltage) and the second order might be the rate with which that voltage changes and the third the rate with which this rate changes etc. To me this implies that thinking on a higher order is somewhat about stepping back and v…

It's simply about looking further down up the casual chain, not stopping at the initial cause-effect: thinking about the effects of effect themselves (and, in third order, the effects of the effects of the effects, and so on). A simple example of failing to do so and only considering the first level cause-effect: "The British government, concerned about the number of venomous cobras in Delhi, offered a bounty for eve…

Hawaiians? I thought the second story was set in Jamaica.

Re: Second-Order Thinking

#208

Post by omginternets »

drewcoo wrote: post #162
omginternets wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it roughly amounts to “thinking through the implications of the implications”.

I think that's 3rd order, actually. Why does this remind me of Abbot and Costello? https://youtu.be/sShMA85pv8M?t=64

"If x, then y" is one implication, so that's first-order reasoning.

"If y, then z" is second-order reasoning.

Re: Second-Order Thinking

#209

Post by tinco »

rob_c wrote: post #166
tinco wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is long term thinking. But long term thinking is not necessarily 2nd order thinking. It's basically good long term thinking, where you don't just come up with a plan that addresses a problem, but you also enumerate all the secondary effects, and the effects of those effects, etc. Any good long term thinking would do that, but it's not always clear if people really have thought it through. If someone says ban ICE v…

It is but it isn't? Followed by some banter about illegals. This comment in it's blind ignorance is a godsent gift to people of a leftwing political bias...

I don't follow, what do you mean? Is there blind ignorance in my comment?

edit: oh you mean you don't understand how something can be a superset of something else without being the same set. So I'm saying there's long term thinking with 2nd order thinking, and there's long term thinking without 2nd order thinking.

Re: Second-Order Thinking

#210

Post by agitator »

atoav wrote: post #86
kqr wrote: post #60

This article, and some of the comments here, seem to confuse "second-order" with "long-term". Long-term just means doing the same analysis far out into the future: "If I spend less on maintaining software product $LEGACY, I will save money. If I continue to do this, I will save more and more money by each passing month." Second-order means discovering neighbouring causal links. "If I spend less on maintaining softwar…

I am not particularily familiar with the connotation of the term second-order-thinking , but to me it implies the somewhat mathematical meaning of it. The first order might be some value (e.g. a voltage) and the second order might be the rate with which that voltage changes and the third the rate with which this rate changes etc. To me this implies that thinking on a higher order is somewhat about stepping back and v…

The best, simple, metaphor I can think of is playing out a chess game in your head. As in, you make a move, and see how the scenario changes, and predict the opponents moves. In chess, it's just 2D and one opponent or agent. In the real world you need to weigh many possible agents, estimate their motivations, and predict their responses. This way you can visualize the cascading effects of a decision.
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