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Second-Order Thinking

fs.blog

91–100 of 266 posts

Re: Second-Order Thinking

#91
post #38

Applied Economics: Thinking Beyond Stage One by economist Thomas Sowell[0] explores this in good detail, applying it to political and economic policies, in his book. Housing policies, medicare and today's problem of defund the police can be better analysed if the framework of second-order thinking is used to view the pros and cons of such policies and their subsequent ramifications. Second-order thinking is a great m…

Yep, for foreign policy as well [1].

[1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/henry-kissinger-is-worried-abou...

Re: Second-Order Thinking

#92

Quoted post unavailable.

A related thing that seems unthinkable for many people now is how dynamic opinions are. Like, not intelectually, but from experience understanding that my world view currently firmly stands on a foundation that might very well fall apart some day... I feel that experience deeply shaped my character. Funnily, I think my opinions are now standing on even firmer grounds since I stopped expecting them to hold forever.

People talk about their opinion as if it was some static thing that was always like this and will always be. Completely unaware how their own opinion evolved throughout their life and might evolve if they allow too. Also completely unaware of how irrelevant their opinion is, except for the consequences that follow from acting according to it.

"[...] But that's just my opinion. [...]", as if anybody should care. And, as if protecting their world view from the debate that might rip it apart. As if that'd be a painful and scary experience. (No even talking about how people use that sentence in order to spread fear, anger or hatred.) As if they'd need to put their whole life into question if they'd changed some if their opinions.

Often I think in the past there were people that lived according to this wisdom. I am not sure to what extend that's true, but I do not often meet such people now. Even in intelectual spheres, where some people even might talk about wisdom like this it often feels hollow to me if they do.

Re: Second-Order Thinking

#93
Part of thinking ahead or to second or third order is being realistic about the range of outcomes. This article characterizes outcomes as "good" or "bad", but realistically almost any scenario is going to generate results in a broad grey area of trade offs including what might be good or bad depending on framing and points of view.

Re: Second-Order Thinking

#94
post #86
post #60

This article, and some of the comments here, seem to confuse "second-order" with "long-term". Long-term just means doing the same analysis far out into the future: "If I spend less on maintaining software product $LEGACY, I will save money. If I continue to do this, I will save more and more money by each passing month." Second-order means discovering neighbouring causal links. "If I spend less on maintaining softwar…

I am not particularily familiar with the connotation of the term second-order-thinking , but to me it implies the somewhat mathematical meaning of it. The first order might be some value (e.g. a voltage) and the second order might be the rate with which that voltage changes and the third the rate with which this rate changes etc. To me this implies that thinking on a higher order is somewhat about stepping back and v…

I think it roughly amounts to “thinking through the implications of the implications”.

Re: Second-Order Thinking

#95
post #86
post #60

This article, and some of the comments here, seem to confuse "second-order" with "long-term". Long-term just means doing the same analysis far out into the future: "If I spend less on maintaining software product $LEGACY, I will save money. If I continue to do this, I will save more and more money by each passing month." Second-order means discovering neighbouring causal links. "If I spend less on maintaining softwar…

I am not particularily familiar with the connotation of the term second-order-thinking , but to me it implies the somewhat mathematical meaning of it. The first order might be some value (e.g. a voltage) and the second order might be the rate with which that voltage changes and the third the rate with which this rate changes etc. To me this implies that thinking on a higher order is somewhat about stepping back and v…

You are on the right track. Second order means second derivative. So, if we are predicting future positions, using acceleration in addition to velocity will always be better. Second order is much more difficult because in more than one dimension you have to consider how every pair interacts.

Re: Second-Order Thinking

#96
post #87
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I generally skip articles from Farnam Street. Once I saw the source, I already knew what the comments would be. ;)

What’s the problem with FS?

y'know goddammit that's it. I'm gonna start a blog and cross post every day to HN and tell you all lots of really amazing observations about life you never even thought of before.

Just kidding hahshahah I'd never do that

edit but only because I'm lazy

Re: Second-Order Thinking

#97
post #86
post #60

This article, and some of the comments here, seem to confuse "second-order" with "long-term". Long-term just means doing the same analysis far out into the future: "If I spend less on maintaining software product $LEGACY, I will save money. If I continue to do this, I will save more and more money by each passing month." Second-order means discovering neighbouring causal links. "If I spend less on maintaining softwar…

I am not particularily familiar with the connotation of the term second-order-thinking , but to me it implies the somewhat mathematical meaning of it. The first order might be some value (e.g. a voltage) and the second order might be the rate with which that voltage changes and the third the rate with which this rate changes etc. To me this implies that thinking on a higher order is somewhat about stepping back and v…

'order' has many meanings in mathematics, and I'm not sure of the best metaphor that is actually called an order there, but when people talk colloquially about 'second order effects' etc. IME they mean something like a vertex v2 (doing something) in response to a change to v1, where there exists a vertex vj and edges (v1, vj) & (vj, v2) - and implicitly no edge (v1, v2). Higher 'orders' similarly extending the chain.

Or think chess - 'first order thinking' would make a move that merely escapes mate, or puts you in a position where another move immediately could be a great one; 'second order thinking' considers what the opponent will do from there (probably disallow the great move or threaten it back); etc.

Re: Second-Order Thinking

#98
What makes Farnam Street especially disappointing is that every time I see "fs.blog" I expect it to be about Free Software, not GOOP for Rationalistics.

Re: Second-Order Thinking

#99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Humility essentially the core virtue of Christianity, as well as active recognition of pride as a sin. If you dig deep, you’ll find that pride is the root of virtually every evil. I’m only pointing this out because of the perception of Christianity that you mention in your post. There’s a very big difference between what Reddit claims is Christian behavior and what the Bible actually claims. https://www.readnotmisled…

Quoted post unavailable.

I think the root of the perception that Christians don’t understand is that many haven’t read the Bible.

Taking a single verse out of context to suit a purpose rather than reading all of the surrounding text is a pretty big problem.

Re: Second-Order Thinking

#100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Humility essentially the core virtue of Christianity, as well as active recognition of pride as a sin. If you dig deep, you’ll find that pride is the root of virtually every evil. I’m only pointing this out because of the perception of Christianity that you mention in your post. There’s a very big difference between what Reddit claims is Christian behavior and what the Bible actually claims. https://www.readnotmisled…

Quoted post unavailable.

Sorry in advance, to be the goyim and ask: Do you have doubts in this privileged model of thinking, or you enjoy the power and then intellectualize the outcome.

Because we as the stupid ones can "hurt ourselves" and we need the "wisdom" of historically proven "chosen" people with higher IQ, moral ground and knowledge.

Right?

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