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US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

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Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#501

Post by [deleted] »

phpisthebest wrote: post #300
mywittyname wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that we are in a recession. >How did we get to a point where actual data can be outright denied or absorbed based on your political viewpoint? Because the actual data is sending mixed signals. People equate recessions with job losses, but job growth is still high and unemployment remains incredibly low. Businesses equate recessions with reduced demand for goods and and services, yet demand remains strong enou…

They are not mixed signals, the data we use for signaling is flawed for the modern area Take for example the U-3 unemployment number that you cite, what is missing from that is Workforce Participation, we have a pretty large drop-off in Work force participation which is leading to the false belief that employment is "fine", and the quote "mix signal" of being in a recession while still having lower unemployment. Comp…

[deleted]

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#502

Post by imtringued »

ptero wrote: post #307
SkyMarshal wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Fed learned under Volcker back in the early 80s that prioritizing killing inflation is the best way to ensure medium and long-term economic and employment growth, even if it causes lower growth or recession in the near-term. That’s likely the playbook Powell is operating under now.

In Volker time, federal debt (as a fraction of the GDP) was low, he could raise rates without crippling the budget with interest payments. With today's federal debt level the fed is screwed: it cannot raise rates even close to inflation without busting the budget and cannot lower them (to fight a recession) without spiking inflation. My bet is on long term rates-below-inflation period to deflate debts, similar to pos…

You could also just reduce the money supply by abolishing QE and introducing negative interest rates on liquid deposits and cash.

Then everyone can run a balanced budget and watch their debt melt away.

The reason why we have price controls aka the zero lower bound of interest is that we would rather become eternal debt slaves (money supply has always been growing exponentially even under a gold standard) than face nominal losses that force us to face an umcomfortable truth that from this point onwards you will never earn anything again from owning abundant physical capital and that you will have to work for your own money instead of making others work for it.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#503

Post by snikeris »

alchemist1e9 wrote: post #284
rockemsockem wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Was that actually the headline before? The title I get is the same minus the "white". I wonder if it's A/B testing.

https://imgur.com/a/yW4IXum I took a screenshot as I had a hunch it would be changed once enough people saw it. Edit: shows up without the “White” also for me now: https://imgur.com/a/84X6RKj

I also saw the original headline that said:

> Who decides if the US is in a recession. Eight White economists you've never heard of.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#504

Post by idontpost »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #362
partiallypro wrote: post #237

I personally think we're in recession and the reason is datapoints outside of this GDP print, what companies are saying, and the fact I know people that have been laid off already. What I find pathetic is that saying we are in a recession is now a political stance. I think we all know that if a Republican were President the entire narrative would shift, with most of the press saying we're in recession while Fox, etc…

I fundamentally don't understand how low unemployment is a counterclaim against economic recession. This is like saying sure you can't buy as much bread, but at least you are working longer. The fact that more people are working to produce less than before describes an economy in decline. What am I missing here?

Unemployment isn't low because more people are working. It's low because retiring Boomers shrank the labor force.

Fewer workers = less production.

Fewer people looking for work = low unemployment.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#505

Post by nightski »

dazhengca wrote: post #269
nightski wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's been suggested the employment is because people are being forced to take on multiple jobs to make ends meet, not because there are more people getting jobs. Gas affects the prices of nearly everything in the economy so I have no idea how you would conclude it's not a large portion of spending. I work in commodities and we are seeing massive price increases simply due to fuel & freight costs.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12026620 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE That doesn’t appear to be the cae

This is good data, but I am guessing it does not take into account the gig economy which I wonder what the effect of that is.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#506

Post by tiahura »

colinmhayes wrote: post #441
tiahura wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Austen Goolsbee? He was part of the Biden campaign and not a CEO. He seems like a good guy, but he’s a hack. Most of the executives quoted said inflation was an issue, but that they thought they would be able to raise prices to match (ie we’re going to do our part to make it persistent). Edit: A very important article. Basically the academic center-left consensus was 100% wrong, and everyone else was right.

Goolsbee is a world renowned economist with tenure at one of if not the most hawkish monetary institutions in the world. You don’t know what you’re talking about.

He’s on Squawk Box weekly spinning away. I’m perfectly familiar with him going back to the Obama years.

His role, in public at least, is to try to spin the D econ failure of the day in the way Wall Street might barely find plausible. Again, seems like a good and sharp person, but not an unbiased observer, and certainly not a CEO dealing with inflation issues in their business.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#507

Post by ffggvv »

qqqwerty wrote: post #456
ffggvv wrote: post #397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yes i have a hard time seeing robert reich arguing that unemployment is what matters if trump was in office and midterms were 4 months away

How much air time is Fox News spending on the falling gas prices? How much time did they spend on the subject when prices were rising? Also, his latest tweet on the subject seems pretty balanced: https://twitter.com/RBReich/status/1552739457433972737?ref_s...

lol that’s pretty funny. forgot he’s the type that just wants the govt to keep printing money despite the massive inflation. that’s the number one goal in his life.

and yes fox news is right leaning but atleast they’re open about it. and a 10% drop after a 2x increase isn’t that exciting

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#508

Post by librish »

andrew_ wrote: post #389
librish wrote: post #368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As an aside it's pretty bad form to accuse the person you're talking to be emotional. It's implies that your argument is logical and correct, and the other person's is incorrectly clouded. Can you clarify what your argument about the stimulus is then?

As an aside it's pretty bad form to continue to try and draw a person into an argument they've repeatedly stated they're not attempting to make nor have interest in joining. Stop trying to make fetch happen. I have no argument for, against, nor interest in engaging in the shaving of a yak that is bald. You're in a debate with a single participant.

I'm not trying to "draw" you into an argument, I'm responding to my best faith interpretations of your posts. That is not considered bad form. That you refuse to clarify and call me emotional is.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#509

Post by _ea1k »

rabuse wrote: post #316
_ea1k wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

9% is exceptionally high for some industries (eg, commodities or retail). For example, Wal-Mart is closer to 3%. Its not unusual to see targets of close to 4%. I do agree with you that it isn't unexpected during a period of sanctions on a country that produces ~10% of the worldwide oil supply, though. Profits naturally will rise for the remaining players.

Now do Apple/Google/Facebook.

Those aren't in commodities markets.
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