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US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

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Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#171

Post by hackerlight »

czstar wrote: post #147
hackerlight wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They lied when they blamed inflation on Putin's invasion, only one week into the invasion. At best Putin's invasion explained 5% of that number at that early stage, given the lead-lag in the CPI number and the predominant causal factors being supply chain issues from COVID and recent monetary and fiscal stimulus.

I’m not an economist. A number of respected economists believed a year ago that inflation was mostly supply chain issues and was transient. Now, with new information, opinions are changing. I believe the monetary stimulus mostly occurred the first year of the pandemic but maybe it’s continuing. I don’t know. Since inflation is a global phenomenon it seems reasonable to conclude that fiscal stimulus in the U.S. is not…

The statement from Psaki in an early press conference was that the invasion explained the observed CPI number. She wasn't referring to inflation that was yet to come. She knowingly lied, probably rationalizing it as spin or a half-truth.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#172

Post by throwawaycuriou »

bushbaba wrote: post #16
BuyMyBitcoins wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kind of amazing how this administration isn’t getting the kind of ridicule that would be expected if the previous administration tried to deny a recession was happening according to the objective definition by including a subjective qualifier. Is this not the same thing as ‘alternate facts’?

It’s because the media leans democrat. But make no mistake Fox News, BBC, and other moderate or right leaning news sources will call this a recession. The news has for the most part has not called out Biden’s many missteps. Not even John Oliver is making fun of it.

Oliver's most recent ditty did roast Biden remarking 'I can taste it. I think he could've done more to roast previous administration policies.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#173

Post by s1artibartfast »

_8j50 wrote: post #157
yuan43 wrote: post #43

> Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent. That makes two back-to-back quarters of real GDP contraction. To some, this is a recession, but it's the NBER that puts the stamp on it. AFAIK, NBER has never failed…

How can one profit from this? Any good short positions?

The exact opposite, Buy long positions at a discount

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#174

Post by ceejayoz »

nightski wrote: post #168
ceejayoz wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We could drill our away out of this problem, but we are not, because the the biden administration is being held hostage by the progressive left. Saying this doesn't make it true. https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-452931879750 > The U.S. was producing 11.185 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2021, compared with an average of 11.283 million barrels per day in 2020, according to data from the U.S. Energy…

You can't look at the oil market in isolation like that. Saudi was dumping oil at that point, producing way more than necessary. So much so futures went negative. That is not the case today.

> That is not the case today.

As a deliberate political choice by the Saudis.

https://theintercept.com/2022/02/15/saudi-arabia-gas-price-o...

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#175

Post by shagie »

misiti3780 wrote: post #140
ceejayoz wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> you dont think the administration plays any role in the increased gas prices Essentially correct. Presidents have very little control over this.

Yes, they do. They control things like this. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/24/biden-administration-pausing... We could drill our away out of this problem, but we are not, because the the biden administration is being held hostage by the progressive left. And before you start calling me a republican, im not one, but this is just a really stupid idea because it's decisions like this that will cause republicans to be ele…

https://www.marketplace.org/2022/03/07/why-do-we-import-russ...

> Now, you could be excused for asking yourself: “Wait a second, I thought the U.S. had a bunch of oil in the Permian Basin in Texas and the Bakken Shale in North Dakota. Why the heck are we importing oil?” Turns out the answer is part chemistry and part economics.

> ...

> That’s because they take longer to process and need specialized refining equipment. This cheap, lower-quality crude comes from Canada, Venezuela and Russia, among other spots. Back in the late 1990s and early 2000s, it was the product U.S. refiners were buying.

> “A lot of refineries, especially in the Gulf Coast, made a very expensive bet to invest in this equipment that would allow them to save money on input costs by processing, you know, lower-quality crude,” said Richard Sweeney, an assistant professor of economics at Boston College.

---

We can't drill our way out of this because we can't refine the oil that we produce.

Here's another article from 2019 - https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/the-great-oil-p...

> Refiners who invested billions to turn a profit from processing cheap low-quality crude are paying unheard of premiums to find the heavy-sour grades they need. The mismatch is better news for such OPEC producers as Iraq and Saudi Arabia, who don’t produce much light-sweet, but pump plenty of the dirtier stuff.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#176

Post by dfxm12 »

willcipriano wrote: post #145
ceejayoz wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

Gasoline was expensive before the war.

Yes, because of a worldwide pandemic.

https://wtop.com/national/2021/10/covid-19-drives-gas-oil-pr...

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#177

Post by NeverFade »

tootie wrote: post #146
NeverFade wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To some, this is a recession Not "to some", two back-to-back negative GDP stats has been the definition of a recession for my entire life. Now suddenly it's questionable, because the current administration would like to shrug away its failures, and too many in the media are helping them do it. This ad-hoc re-definition of language to suit political purposes is scary and Orwellian.

That definition was only ever a rule of thumb. The fact is, you can't define it. It's like setting a temperature that is officially "cold". The current economic indicators are almost completely unprecedented in the growth is weak, inflation is very high and yet employment remains historically strong. As much as GDP represents the broadest indicator of economic health, if you're looking for a headline to apply to the…

In the US, the NBER is the institution that calls recessions. The NBER has never once failed to call two consecutive quarters of negative growth as a recession. It's a foregone conclusion at this point.

But wait, according to the mainstream media now, we shouldn't listen to the NBER either, they're all just a bunch of "white economists":

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/30/economy/recession-economists-...

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#178

Post by _ea1k »

causi wrote: post #120
jeffbee wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Direct actions like what? U.S. crude production is near all-time highs. Gas is expensive because ridiculous Americans will pay it and the oil companies figured that out. Shell just announced a $12 billion quarterly profit. The only thing I want to see out of Biden on gas prices is a windfall tax on oil companies where the funds are dedicated to lithium exploration.

$11.5 billion in profits on $103.06 billion in revenue is a profit margin of less than nine percent. That doesn't seem all that unreasonable to me.

9% is exceptionally high for some industries (eg, commodities or retail). For example, Wal-Mart is closer to 3%. Its not unusual to see targets of close to 4%.

I do agree with you that it isn't unexpected during a period of sanctions on a country that produces ~10% of the worldwide oil supply, though. Profits naturally will rise for the remaining players.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#179

Post by _ea1k »

jeffbee wrote: post #138
causi wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$11.5 billion in profits on $103.06 billion in revenue is a profit margin of less than nine percent. That doesn't seem all that unreasonable to me.

Oil is the textbook commodity and the expected profit margin on commodities is ~zero. That's the nature of a commodity: a good so interchangeable, with so many competing producers, that the profit margins are inevitably minimized.

The problem is that supply naturally reacts slowly and ~1/10th of the supply was removed from the global market. I've heard people act as if that's a small shift, but its really not small at all over the short term.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#180

Post by njarboe »

jacobmarble wrote: post #90
melling wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn’t a Fed typically lower rates during a recession? At least at some point, in order to bring a country out of the recession.

In this case, the Fed is stimulating a (hopefully mild) recession, by raising interest rates, in order to bring inflation down.

Until rates are above inflation (now around 8%) I would say the Fed is still pumping up the economy, but it's hard to see the Fed push up rates to that level like Volker did the last time the US had high inflation. The Fed set the federal funds rate at 20% in June of 1981 when inflation was about 15%. If the US has to finance much of its debt at 15% something will seriously break.
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