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US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

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Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not so much. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/17/business/dealbook/inflati...

Austen Goolsbee? He was part of the Biden campaign and not a CEO. He seems like a good guy, but he’s a hack. Most of the executives quoted said inflation was an issue, but that they thought they would be able to raise prices to match (ie we’re going to do our part to make it persistent). Edit: A very important article. Basically the academic center-left consensus was 100% wrong, and everyone else was right.

Goolsbee is a world renowned economist with tenure at one of if not the most hawkish monetary institutions in the world. You don’t know what you’re talking about.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#442

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If McDonalds can't afford to pay a living wage at the local cost of living, nobody will immigrate to work for them.

You can fit 3 generations in a single family home in an American suburb of a mid-sized city, and half the world's population would either (a) consider that a QoL improvement or at least (b) put up with it for a while to remit back home. For all the doom and gloom in the USA, it's still an incredibly rich country. To be clear: I'm not making a moral statement here. This is a statement of fact, not a statement of ethic…

Can three people working at McDonalds own a single family home in an American suburb?

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#443
post #364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How did we get to a point where actual data can be outright denied or absorbed based on your political viewpoint? Our elites—I don’t mean that pejoratively, but descriptively—used to adhere to institutional values. When I joined a prominent NYC law firm 10 years ago nobody commented on the fact that it was named after someone who argued the pro-segregation other side of Brown v. Board . The institution, not only of…

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> Conservatives started going crazy long before that. Keep in mind that there was no "The Resistance" before Trump was elected, and Trump being elected is absolutely mind bogglingly crazy.

When exactly was that? Republicans ran "Mittens" Romney in 2012 (and John McCain in 2008). Two men whose adherence to institutional norms is irreproachable. Yet, as Vice President, Joe Biden said that Romney would put Black people “back in chains.” That was after prominent Democrats spent years claiming Bush “stole” the 2000 and 2004 elections. https://freebeacon.com/elections/terry-mcauliffe-championed-...

Then Trump won in a fair election in 2016, and Republicans won the House by a million and a half votes. Democrats went completely ape-shit at the emergence of Trump, and the media, unelected bureaucrats, etc., all shredded institutional norms in response to him. Clinton claimed he was an “illegitimate President.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/hillary-clinton-trum.... The rhetoric convinced half of Democrats that Putin had “tampered with vote tallies” to get Trump elected: https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/815256370958237696?s=2...

All the crazy stuff from conservatives--the election denialism, etc.--came in response to that.

> Further, Trump being elected happened nearly a decade after the emergence of the Tea Party, a batshit insane movement.

There's nothing "batshit insane" about the Tea Party. They're just the ideological wing of the party, just like the AOC/Sanders wing of the Democratic Party. The Tea Party did nothing outside of established procedures.

> Abandonment of institutional values? Like refusing to even try negotiating legislation with any resemblance of good faith to do good by the citizens of the country?

The parties obviously disagree about what's "good" for the country. “Not doing what Democrats want” isn’t a breach of political norms.

In the U.S., the primary lawmaking body is the House. Democrats lost that in 2010 by almost 6 million votes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_States_House_of_Re.... Republicans have no obligation to move forward on Obama's legislative priorities when they control the House, just as Democrats had no obligation to move forward on Trump's legislative priorities when they won control of the House in 2018.

> Like the explosion of the use of the filibuster in 2009?

The explosion in the filibuster was done by Democrats at the end of Bush's last two years: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/cloture/clotureCounts.htm. It was double in 07-08 compared to 05-06. It was no higher in Obama's first two years than in Bush's last two years. The filibuster is a red herring in the last six years of Obama's term, because Democrats didn't control the House and couldn’t win a majority for their legislative agenda anyway.

Remember, the filibuster is a legislative rule that can be overturned by a simple majority vote of the Senate, which Democrats had from 2007 to 2014. They could have dropped the filibuster at any point during that 7-year span. They didn’t do it because it’s critical to their strategy.

> Like refusing to bring a Supreme Court justice nomination to a vote on the floor of the Senate?

This is the only thing that comes close to qualifying as a norm violation.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's not obvious to me that a system that raises the experience for mean, or even the bottom end, of the distribution would be a good thing for me in many respects Ah—I usually assume the Rawlsian "Veil of Ignorance" POV when it comes public policy issues, personally, as I think is fairly common. Sure, if that's your perspective, literally nothing matters except how a policy affects you, personally, right now, so m…

Do you have anything other than unearned moral condescension? It is not my experience that clicking your tongue at people and badgering them to prioritize the collective over their own individual health outcomes in a healthcare policy is compelling. So why would I engage? Because you seem to be advocating policies that would directly (and potentially negatively) affect my health outcomes, and your justification is "b…

I was about to explain, but from my selfish POV it's actually better if you keep posting like this. So... carry on.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#445

I personally think we're in recession and the reason is datapoints outside of this GDP print, what companies are saying, and the fact I know people that have been laid off already. What I find pathetic is that saying we are in a recession is now a political stance. I think we all know that if a Republican were President the entire narrative would shift, with most of the press saying we're in recession while Fox, etc…

I agree that we are in a recession. >How did we get to a point where actual data can be outright denied or absorbed based on your political viewpoint? Because the actual data is sending mixed signals. People equate recessions with job losses, but job growth is still high and unemployment remains incredibly low. Businesses equate recessions with reduced demand for goods and and services, yet demand remains strong enou…

> Because the actual data is sending mixed signals. People equate recessions with job losses, but job growth is still high and unemployment remains incredibly low.

The definition of "recession" doesn't depend on what other things people think happen during a recession.

No one would be making this argument if it had happened while Trump was in office.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#446

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that we are in a recession. >How did we get to a point where actual data can be outright denied or absorbed based on your political viewpoint? Because the actual data is sending mixed signals. People equate recessions with job losses, but job growth is still high and unemployment remains incredibly low. Businesses equate recessions with reduced demand for goods and and services, yet demand remains strong enou…

They are not mixed signals, the data we use for signaling is flawed for the modern area Take for example the U-3 unemployment number that you cite, what is missing from that is Workforce Participation, we have a pretty large drop-off in Work force participation which is leading to the false belief that employment is "fine", and the quote "mix signal" of being in a recession while still having lower unemployment. Comp…

> we have a pretty large drop-off in Work force participation

No, we don't.

While the LFPR is still down from the point it was prior to the 2020 recession, it has been continuing to increase fairly consistently after it's sharp rebound from the trough of that recession.

https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-lab...

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#447
post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are not mixed signals, the data we use for signaling is flawed for the modern area Take for example the U-3 unemployment number that you cite, what is missing from that is Workforce Participation, we have a pretty large drop-off in Work force participation which is leading to the false belief that employment is "fine", and the quote "mix signal" of being in a recession while still having lower unemployment. Comp…

A reasonable definition of recession is "you can't find a job", but, not only are we in the middle of a labor shortage, traditional good-economic-times like unionization are ramping up, and people are successfully demanding raises (and some households are voluntarily moving to single incomes). On the other hand, the stock market is down this year, so if that's your definition, things are dire. Honestly, this seems li…

> "you can't find a job"

that sounds like a depression, not a recession

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#448
post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Subsidized by America's spending on R&D for the rest of the planet, just like the military.

That's the industry PR line, at least. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/02/11/big-p... > The biggest spender, Johnson & Johnson, shelled out $17.5 billion on sales and marketing in 2013, compared with $8.2 billion for R&D. In the top 10, only Roche spent more on R&D than on sales and marketing.

That doesn't seem to contravene what was being said? The assertion was that the US (via higher prices) is what pays for the R&D. Not they they exclusively spend all the US profits on R&D. If the companies suddenly made 20 billion less, I'd expect the proportionate expense on Sales vs. R&D to stay roughly the same?

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#449
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to the White House, it is not [1] https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2022/07/21/...

If it were Trump in office, that article would been disembowelled all over Twitter

Well. His admin did have some astoundingly incompetent and insane people.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#450

I personally think we're in recession and the reason is datapoints outside of this GDP print, what companies are saying, and the fact I know people that have been laid off already. What I find pathetic is that saying we are in a recession is now a political stance. I think we all know that if a Republican were President the entire narrative would shift, with most of the press saying we're in recession while Fox, etc…

You're making it political with your comments, then you are surprised it is political? Hah
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