Earlier quoted context omitted.
what new medicines have come out of europe recently? (serious question)
The Pfizer vaccine for one.
How's that vaccine working out?
US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
311–320 of 509 posts
Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#312I personally think we're in recession and the reason is datapoints outside of this GDP print, what companies are saying, and the fact I know people that have been laid off already. What I find pathetic is that saying we are in a recession is now a political stance. I think we all know that if a Republican were President the entire narrative would shift, with most of the press saying we're in recession while Fox, etc…
> How did we get to a point where actual data can be outright denied or absorbed based on your political viewpoint? It's really pathetic. People will go to the ends of the earth just to protect politicians. Worse, even if we're in recession it's pretty mild, so I don't even know why there is so much handwringing about it.
That's because all politicians are liars and the media spin doctors will ensure that their lies gaslight the general public into believing them. The problem is, they can't deny the numbers and they know it, hence why they are beginning to change definitions.
Given the last administration brought the US into a recession 2 years ago with the same opposition, media and critics screaming at them, there is no more denying that this is a recession with these figures. The difference is, the current administration is trying to escape by changing definitions, which doesn't give much confidence in them and indicates that it may get even worse.
Now you see the same ones down-playing the inflation fears in November 2021 are trying to down play this recession very poorly with lots of damage control to save themselves and their careers. In reality we were no better off, and it looks like this is worse than the last administration.
And finally, the indicators for this with surging inflation was there since November 2021. Instead we have 'Stock market up 1% today on both this news and decades-high inflation.' [0] and later 'We are most certainly not in a recession.' [1]. Not only you have to look at it in the long term - not in 1 day, but you also don't wait for the figures to come out for you to then prepare for the worst. By then it is too late.
The denial is indeed pathetic.
Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#313Earlier quoted context omitted.
I agree that we are in a recession. >How did we get to a point where actual data can be outright denied or absorbed based on your political viewpoint? Because the actual data is sending mixed signals. People equate recessions with job losses, but job growth is still high and unemployment remains incredibly low. Businesses equate recessions with reduced demand for goods and and services, yet demand remains strong enou…
> Businesses equate recessions with reduced demand for goods and and services, yet demand remains strong This isn't true, major retailers have been reporting falling demand. I'd cite the WSJ but for some reason I can't paste the link in this box, just Google "falling demand Wal-Mart" > enough to push prices and profits to record levels. Adjust both for inflation
> This isn't true, major retailers have been reporting falling demand.
As OP said,
>> and services.
> Wal-Mart
WalMart's issue is that they have a massive inventory/demand mismatch. They already have the headwind of a shift from goods to services, and then on top of that they also massively mismanaged a shift in consumer preference within goods. I have a feeling that they are also feeling the squeeze from Amazon. Many households treat Prime as a fixed cost but the 20 minute drive out to Walmart is a real expense that can be substituted with Amazon purchases. Tonight's earnings will be interesting.
Compare to eg Visa [1].
I expect that the "last hoorah" spending of this summer will grind to a halt in the winter and by Q2 2023 we'll be able to see a massive decline in consumer spending during Q4 in particular.
But we aren't there yet, at least in aggregate, because consumers are spending like mad on services.
[1] https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/visa-quarterly-prof...
Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#314Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm liberal and don't want central planning. It terrifies me that we are headed down that road at all; even seeing trial balloons for price controls. It always ends very, very badly and there's no reason to think this time would be different.
Price controls on medicine in Europe have worked very well compared to America's "free market" by pretty much any measure.
Subsidized by America's spending on R&D for the rest of the planet, just like the military.
Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#315Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Businesses equate recessions with reduced demand for goods and and services, yet demand remains strong This isn't true, major retailers have been reporting falling demand. I'd cite the WSJ but for some reason I can't paste the link in this box, just Google "falling demand Wal-Mart" > enough to push prices and profits to record levels. Adjust both for inflation
Falling demand of non-necessities. People aren't buying "TVs". Which as you call out, is a stupidly strong recessionary signal.
Or, damn near every household bought a new TV during the pandemic lockdowns using their stimulus checks and now no one needs a new TV.
I think Walmart's story in particular is one of stupidly bad demand forecasting.
Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#316Earlier quoted context omitted.
$11.5 billion in profits on $103.06 billion in revenue is a profit margin of less than nine percent. That doesn't seem all that unreasonable to me.
9% is exceptionally high for some industries (eg, commodities or retail). For example, Wal-Mart is closer to 3%. Its not unusual to see targets of close to 4%. I do agree with you that it isn't unexpected during a period of sanctions on a country that produces ~10% of the worldwide oil supply, though. Profits naturally will rise for the remaining players.
Now do Apple/Google/Facebook.
Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#317Wow the scale on the historic chart on that page is just nuts! Looking at Q2 & Q3 of 2020 - it just dwarfs everything and nearly makes the chart unreadable for the scale of numbers that we usually think of as important - where a full percent is real and two percent is big. I mean it makes sense given the pandemic, but seeing the economy shrink at a 30% annual rate one quarter and then bounce right back by the same amount the next quarter is insane. I wonder the last time it changed that quickly.
Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#318Earlier quoted context omitted.
I agree that we are in a recession. >How did we get to a point where actual data can be outright denied or absorbed based on your political viewpoint? Because the actual data is sending mixed signals. People equate recessions with job losses, but job growth is still high and unemployment remains incredibly low. Businesses equate recessions with reduced demand for goods and and services, yet demand remains strong enou…
They are not mixed signals, the data we use for signaling is flawed for the modern area Take for example the U-3 unemployment number that you cite, what is missing from that is Workforce Participation, we have a pretty large drop-off in Work force participation which is leading to the false belief that employment is "fine", and the quote "mix signal" of being in a recession while still having lower unemployment. Comp…
Of course we have a large drop off of workforce participation. Baby Boomers are retiring en masse; they’re reaching retirement age, and many of those who are close were offered buyouts to leave early.
It’s not the result of decreased hiring due to economic slowdown. It’s the opposite entirely; this is a contributing factor to the labor shortage.
Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#319Earlier quoted context omitted.
The Fed learned under Volcker back in the early 80s that prioritizing killing inflation is the best way to ensure medium and long-term economic and employment growth, even if it causes lower growth or recession in the near-term. That’s likely the playbook Powell is operating under now.
In Volker time, federal debt (as a fraction of the GDP) was low, he could raise rates without crippling the budget with interest payments. With today's federal debt level the fed is screwed: it cannot raise rates even close to inflation without busting the budget and cannot lower them (to fight a recession) without spiking inflation. My bet is on long term rates-below-inflation period to deflate debts, similar to pos…
The Fed does not have the mandate to do what is convenient for the budget. That's not their problem. Obviously this is naive and I'm sure the Fed is under all kinds of pressure, but the Fed is supposed to kill inflation by raising rates to whatever it takes, as long as they don't kill jobs at the same time. The government is supposed to figure something out themselves.
Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#320I personally think we're in recession and the reason is datapoints outside of this GDP print, what companies are saying, and the fact I know people that have been laid off already. What I find pathetic is that saying we are in a recession is now a political stance. I think we all know that if a Republican were President the entire narrative would shift, with most of the press saying we're in recession while Fox, etc…
The average american does not know the technical definition of what a recession is. They just know recessions are bad. Whether or not it's acknowledged we're officially in a recession can itself have negative economic impacts due to panic.
Also, Powell himself has been iffy about whether or not we're in a recession