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US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

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Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#291

Post by ceejayoz »

willcipriano wrote: post #275
ceejayoz wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The start of the pandemic reduced gas demand. The returning to normal(ish) phase - in late 2020, early 2021 - increased it.

If things returned to normal, then you can't really blame the pandemic. When this thread started the war in Ukraine was the issue.

> If things returned to normal, then you can't really blame the pandemic.

We're still dealing with supply chain issues, and will for a while. The idea that you can turn the economy down 30% and back up 30% in less than a year with no lasting effects is silly.

> When this thread started the war in Ukraine was the issue.

Yes. Starting from an already-disrupted screwed-up economic baseline certainly doesn't help.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#292

Post by [deleted] »

partiallypro wrote: post #237

I personally think we're in recession and the reason is datapoints outside of this GDP print, what companies are saying, and the fact I know people that have been laid off already. What I find pathetic is that saying we are in a recession is now a political stance. I think we all know that if a Republican were President the entire narrative would shift, with most of the press saying we're in recession while Fox, etc…

[deleted]

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#293

Post by njcgbc »

mywittyname wrote: post #262
partiallypro wrote: post #237

I personally think we're in recession and the reason is datapoints outside of this GDP print, what companies are saying, and the fact I know people that have been laid off already. What I find pathetic is that saying we are in a recession is now a political stance. I think we all know that if a Republican were President the entire narrative would shift, with most of the press saying we're in recession while Fox, etc…

I agree that we are in a recession. >How did we get to a point where actual data can be outright denied or absorbed based on your political viewpoint? Because the actual data is sending mixed signals. People equate recessions with job losses, but job growth is still high and unemployment remains incredibly low. Businesses equate recessions with reduced demand for goods and and services, yet demand remains strong enou…

> Businesses equate recessions with reduced demand for goods and and services, yet demand remains strong

This isn't true, major retailers have been reporting falling demand.

I'd cite the WSJ but for some reason I can't paste the link in this box, just Google "falling demand Wal-Mart"

> enough to push prices and profits to record levels.

Adjust both for inflation

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#294

Post by weakfish »

twoxproblematic wrote: post #213
weakfish wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, CNN is basically the left version of Fox News, it’s not representative of center media.

Do you have an example of "center media"? Asking because I earnestly want some of that.

I usually just read the AP or Reuters. FiveThirtyEight is definitely liberal but I appreciate their numbers perspective as well.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#295

Post by ceejayoz »

namelessoracle wrote: post #239
ceejayoz wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> you dont think the administration plays any role in the increased gas prices Essentially correct. Presidents have very little control over this.

Then why is the Biden admin bragging about lowering prices this summer?

If the other side claims you can control them to score points when they go up, why would you not point out when they go down?

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#296

Post by dageshi »

njarboe wrote: post #180
jacobmarble wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In this case, the Fed is stimulating a (hopefully mild) recession, by raising interest rates, in order to bring inflation down.

Until rates are above inflation (now around 8%) I would say the Fed is still pumping up the economy, but it's hard to see the Fed push up rates to that level like Volker did the last time the US had high inflation. The Fed set the federal funds rate at 20% in June of 1981 when inflation was about 15%. If the US has to finance much of its debt at 15% something will seriously break.

From what I recall there was a fairly long period pre Volker where there were very half hearted attempts to get inflation under control without going for the kill so to speak.

I think the Fed knowing that history will try to kill it dead first time, because if they don't they know they'll likely have to go even higher with interest rates at the second attempt and the higher they're forced to go the more danger there will be to US financing operations as you say.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#297

Post by camhart »

InefficientRed wrote: post #264
partiallypro wrote: post #237

I personally think we're in recession and the reason is datapoints outside of this GDP print, what companies are saying, and the fact I know people that have been laid off already. What I find pathetic is that saying we are in a recession is now a political stance. I think we all know that if a Republican were President the entire narrative would shift, with most of the press saying we're in recession while Fox, etc…

Descriptions of economic conditions are obviously politicized. This was probably always true to an extent, but it really took off during the early Obama years. That said... my wealth manager has been and still is waffling when I ask him if we are in a recession. It's NOT just political; I don't even know my wealth manager's politics and I have absolutely no doubt he puts fiduciary responsibilities first and makes fac…

> Consumer balance sheets are strong.

Consumer debt is at record highs for overall debt, and household credit card debt is climbing towards record levels.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/05/10/hou...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/05/10/con...

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#298

Post by njcgbc »

ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #266
InefficientRed wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, we just went through a once per lifetime pandemic and a once per lifetime consumer stimulus package. Supply chains are wrecked and we're in a period during which international trading patterns could massively change. Meanwhile, * China is still purusing zero COVID. * There's a land war in Europe with Russia effectively cut off from the Western world. * German manufacturing, once a workhorse, is bei…

> German manufacturing, once a workhorse, is being crushed by energy costs Hmm, maybe Germany can solve this the same way they "solved" ballooning Berliner rents: just pass a law saying how much energy should cost. Simple. They do love regulations over there. Or just ask Gerhard Schröder and the rest of their former chancellors who were in bed with Russia, to blow their hot air through the pipes this winter. They hav…

Lmao yeah just cap the prices that won't cause a shortage

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#299

Post by corrral »

adgjlsfhk1 wrote: post #231
gorwell wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm liberal and don't want central planning. It terrifies me that we are headed down that road at all; even seeing trial balloons for price controls. It always ends very, very badly and there's no reason to think this time would be different.

Price controls on medicine in Europe have worked very well compared to America's "free market" by pretty much any measure.

Not just Europe—price controls (de jure or de facto, the latter via e.g. establishing a monopsony) are, as best I can tell, the main unifying factor in healthcare systems in the entire OECD except the US. Those systems differ a lot, but at some point and on some level, they all fall back on price controls, apparently to good effect.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#300

Post by phpisthebest »

mywittyname wrote: post #262
partiallypro wrote: post #237

I personally think we're in recession and the reason is datapoints outside of this GDP print, what companies are saying, and the fact I know people that have been laid off already. What I find pathetic is that saying we are in a recession is now a political stance. I think we all know that if a Republican were President the entire narrative would shift, with most of the press saying we're in recession while Fox, etc…

I agree that we are in a recession. >How did we get to a point where actual data can be outright denied or absorbed based on your political viewpoint? Because the actual data is sending mixed signals. People equate recessions with job losses, but job growth is still high and unemployment remains incredibly low. Businesses equate recessions with reduced demand for goods and and services, yet demand remains strong enou…

They are not mixed signals, the data we use for signaling is flawed for the modern area

Take for example the U-3 unemployment number that you cite, what is missing from that is Workforce Participation, we have a pretty large drop-off in Work force participation which is leading to the false belief that employment is "fine", and the quote "mix signal" of being in a recession while still having lower unemployment.

Completely absent from most of these older metrics is the "gig-economy" which is really screwing with the data IMO.

Then you have U-6 Unemployment increasing while U-3 is dropping, I think U-3 is just a few months away from reversal and will start increasing soon

>>GDP has long been criticized for being a poor metric for the economy.

yes by MMT supporters that want to ignore the classic model of economics in favor of monetary manipulation for political purposes

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