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US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

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Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#51

Post by tapoxi »

roamerz wrote: post #26
melling wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not according to many commentators on CNBC. I don’t understand all the details. Personally, I think it would be great to understand the economy at a more basic level rather than what’s put out for the general public to consume in the often overly simplified terms. For example, the condition of the economy vs the Fed raising rates will be interesting. The Fed is trying to slow the economy but much of the inflation pro…

CNBC? That’s a great non-partisan source you cited there.

Are you confusing CNBC with MSNBC?

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#52

Post by chrisco255 »

ConceitedCode wrote: post #48
Unklejoe wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My problem with that is: > significant decline in economic activity What is "significant"? > more than a few months How long exactly? All I gather from their description is that they basically just get a "feel" for it. That's why so many people choose to follow the two negative quarter thing - it's objective and clearly defined, but maybe less accurate (particularly in cases like now where unemployment is still reall…

Both of those are up to the consensus of the group of economists. They regularly talk about it with each other and compare with historical data mostly. Keep in mind economics is a social science, not exact science. It would strike me more as "feeling it out", but they are not in a rush to announce it is or is not a recession until they have a better feel. Everyone seems to be rushing to call it a recession as early a…

So it depends on if it's an election year and how much pressure is on them? Got it.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#53

Post by loeg »

boredumb wrote: post #41
joshuahedlund wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

honest question: has there ever been two quarters of negative GDP with this much job growth ?

Government forcing people out of their jobs and then allowing them to come back into the work force is not job growth in the sense of anything meaningful. So no it probably hasn't been seen before, but it's irrelevant, if I took your 10 dollars today and gave you back 8 dollars next week, your bank account isn't growing unless you only look at this weeks balance and choose to ignore the extremely recent past.

Employment is higher than it was before Covid and unemployment is down at around the same level. To put it in terms of your metaphor, the bank has given you back $10.10 or so for your $10.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#54

Post by jaywalk »

boredumb wrote: post #41
joshuahedlund wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

honest question: has there ever been two quarters of negative GDP with this much job growth ?

Government forcing people out of their jobs and then allowing them to come back into the work force is not job growth in the sense of anything meaningful. So no it probably hasn't been seen before, but it's irrelevant, if I took your 10 dollars today and gave you back 8 dollars next week, your bank account isn't growing unless you only look at this weeks balance and choose to ignore the extremely recent past.

But when you give back the $8, you just need to tell them that "bank account growth" only matters week to week. Boom, they're now $8 richer thanks to you!

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#55

Post by tiahura »

NovemberWhiskey wrote: post #47
tiahura wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The lying is the present attempt to tell us we’re not in a recession. And her failure to appreciate the scale of the price inflation problem was not just a case of being “wrong.” She was unable to see the worst inflation in 40 years when it was standing right in front of her. She’s a miserable failure.

> her failure to appreciate the scale of the price inflation problem was not just a case of being “wrong.” If ever there were a case of 20:20 hindsight, that's one of them.

Every day for a year, every single business leader in every single industry, has been on CNBC warning about inflation.

The only ones who didn’t get it are in the present administration.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#57

Post by czstar »

tiahura wrote: post #39
czstar wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have evidence she was lying versus being wrong? A number of notable economists thought inflation was transitory. It’s hard to predict things like the effect the war in Ukraine would have and the effect the shipping industry doing its thing would have.

The lying is the present attempt to tell us we’re not in a recession. And her failure to appreciate the scale of the price inflation problem was not just a case of being “wrong.” She was unable to see the worst inflation in 40 years when it was standing right in front of her. She’s a miserable failure.

In January of 2007 President Bush said the economy was doing fine. Much later in the year the NBER said that the recession began in January. Was Bush lying or did he lack foresight? Determining when a recession began usually happens after the fact because of how “recession” is defined.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#58

Post by bumby »

jeffbee wrote: post #40
bumby wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their procedure is subjective, but there is still a standardized measure of convenience, no? Just like there is an "official kilogram". We can say, "That's an objective measurement of weight on Earth" but it's not. It's the measurement of the standard kilogram in France. And that "objective" measure can change [1]. It doesn't mean there isn't a consensus on what a kilogram is. Yellen was on Meet the Press last week e…

The kilogram is a quite poor analogy. The GDP is not an objective indicator of recession for the exact reasons you see around you right now. Contraction of economic activity caused by supply bottlenecks doesn’t fit the pattern of recession. The labor situation is still white hot, prices are going up etc.

Are you saying there can't be a standardized definition of "recession"?

What your alluding to seems to indicate that the definition of "two quarters of negative GDP growth" is incorrect (according to Yellen). It doesn't mean there can't be a more accurate definition.

That's where the kg analogy fits. There was one definition that is now considered incorrect by consensus.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#59

Post by chrisco255 »

pgrote wrote: post #25
2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What conclusion are you trying to draw from this subjective view?

That the definition of a recession has always been 2 quarters of negative GDP. The administration now believes there is nuance in the numbers, so what was the accepted definition in the past is no longer. The fact the media on whole has decided it's ok to redefine a commonly accepted definition when the administration promotes it lends itself to the media being a mouthpiece for the administration. I am willing to und…

> This doesn't even touch on the self fulfilling prophecy of hearing that the country is in a recession.

That's not how recessions work. There is always people predicting a recession and always people predicting a turnaround or growth. It's quite simple, however, to engineer a recession when you raise interest rates for such a heavily indebted economy.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#60

Post by NovemberWhiskey »

pgrote wrote: post #25
2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What conclusion are you trying to draw from this subjective view?

That the definition of a recession has always been 2 quarters of negative GDP. The administration now believes there is nuance in the numbers, so what was the accepted definition in the past is no longer. The fact the media on whole has decided it's ok to redefine a commonly accepted definition when the administration promotes it lends itself to the media being a mouthpiece for the administration. I am willing to und…

>That the definition of a recession has always been 2 quarters of negative GDP.

Well, if you want to be specific, the NBER (which calls the game on what is a recession or not) defines it as "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months."

The "two quarters of declining real GDP" (GDP increased by 7.8% in nominal terms) is the pop-economics yardstick.

Are you aware we had a recession in 2001? And yet that managed to happen without having two consecutive quarters of negative GDP.

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