So it’s official now
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US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
21–30 of 509 posts
Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#22Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#23Earlier quoted context omitted.
Kind of amazing how this administration isn’t getting the kind of ridicule that would be expected if the previous administration tried to deny a recession was happening according to the objective definition by including a subjective qualifier. Is this not the same thing as ‘alternate facts’?
Quoted post unavailable.
a lot of economists use 2 consecutive quarters negative bc
1. the business cycle committee is slow af
2. they only cover the U.S. so we gotta have something a bit consistent across countries
Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#24Earlier quoted context omitted.
According to the White House, it is not [1] https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2022/07/21/...
Kind of amazing how this administration isn’t getting the kind of ridicule that would be expected if the previous administration tried to deny a recession was happening according to the objective definition by including a subjective qualifier. Is this not the same thing as ‘alternate facts’?
That’s because it’s not politically convenient to hold to that definition. When the other party is in the Whitehouse it will be though.
“It’s not about what’s true, it’s what you can get people to believe.”
Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#25Earlier quoted context omitted.
Kind of amazing how this administration isn’t getting the kind of ridicule that would be expected if the previous administration tried to deny a recession was happening according to the objective definition by including a subjective qualifier. Is this not the same thing as ‘alternate facts’?
What conclusion are you trying to draw from this subjective view?
That the definition of a recession has always been 2 quarters of negative GDP. The administration now believes there is nuance in the numbers, so what was the accepted definition in the past is no longer.
The fact the media on whole has decided it's ok to redefine a commonly accepted definition when the administration promotes it lends itself to the media being a mouthpiece for the administration.
I am willing to understand nuance and a changing definition, as I am sure there are parts of the economy people are learning to deal with. Gig workers, workers headed back from retirement and more. This doesn't even touch on the self fulfilling prophecy of hearing that the country is in a recession.
I am less willing to accept a change in a short timeframe and right before numbers are released.
Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#26So it’s official now
Not according to many commentators on CNBC. I don’t understand all the details. Personally, I think it would be great to understand the economy at a more basic level rather than what’s put out for the general public to consume in the often overly simplified terms. For example, the condition of the economy vs the Fed raising rates will be interesting. The Fed is trying to slow the economy but much of the inflation pro…
CNBC? That’s a great non-partisan source you cited there.
Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#27No post body was provided.
Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#28Earlier quoted context omitted.
According to the White House, it is not [1] https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2022/07/21/...
According to many of Biden's economic advisers, it is. For example: "Of course economists have a technical definition of recession, which is two consecutive quarters of negative growth." -- The head of Biden's National Economic Council, in a past life, apparently. You can find many other examples in the past of his advisors defining a recession as two quarters of negative GDP. And you can find many examples in the pa…
What has changed?
The party in power.
Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#29Earlier quoted context omitted.
Kind of amazing how this administration isn’t getting the kind of ridicule that would be expected if the previous administration tried to deny a recession was happening according to the objective definition by including a subjective qualifier. Is this not the same thing as ‘alternate facts’?
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Their procedure is subjective, but there is still a standardized measure of convenience, no?
Just like there is an "official kilogram". We can say, "That's an objective measurement of weight on Earth" but it's not. It's the measurement of the standard kilogram in France. And that "objective" measure can change [1]. It doesn't mean there isn't a consensus on what a kilogram is.
Yellen was on Meet the Press last week explaining there is a difference between the "official" measure of a recession and the "two quarters of negative growth" heuristic. That's not to say that politicians can't, or won't, play wordsmith games.
[1]https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/09/070921110735.h...
Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#30Earlier quoted context omitted.
Kind of amazing how this administration isn’t getting the kind of ridicule that would be expected if the previous administration tried to deny a recession was happening according to the objective definition by including a subjective qualifier. Is this not the same thing as ‘alternate facts’?
What conclusion are you trying to draw from this subjective view?
The news media is not nearly as objective as they claim to be. And, they exercise a considerable amount of discretion when it comes to either amplifying a potential controversy or downplaying it.