So it’s official now
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US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
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Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#32In the USA, "officially" a group of 8 economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research decides when a recession starts. I suspect other countries have their own definitions.
"The NBER's definition emphasizes that a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months. In our interpretation of this definition, we treat the three criteria—depth, diffusion, and duration—as somewhat interchangeable. That is, while each criterion needs to be met individually to some degree, extreme conditions revealed by one criterion may partially offset weaker indications from another. For example, in the case of the February 2020 peak in economic activity, the committee concluded that the subsequent drop in activity had been so great and so widely diffused throughout the economy that, even if it proved to be quite brief, the downturn should be classified as a recession." [1]
Planet Money (podcast on NPR) did an episode [2] a little while ago about it that I recommend listening to. They talk with one of the 8 economists. It was honestly refreshing hearing the economist talk about it, I got the impression that it was a more neutral take on the circumstances rather than pushing a narrative.
[1] https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating
[2] https://www.npr.org/2022/06/24/1107581150/recession-referees
Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#33Quoted post unavailable.
Do you have evidence she was lying versus being wrong? A number of notable economists thought inflation was transitory. It’s hard to predict things like the effect the war in Ukraine would have and the effect the shipping industry doing its thing would have.
Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#34Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not according to many commentators on CNBC. I don’t understand all the details. Personally, I think it would be great to understand the economy at a more basic level rather than what’s put out for the general public to consume in the often overly simplified terms. For example, the condition of the economy vs the Fed raising rates will be interesting. The Fed is trying to slow the economy but much of the inflation pro…
CNBC? That’s a great non-partisan source you cited there.
They clearly have a mix of D R and I.
Have you ever actually watched?
If you want cable news that isn’t complete D good R bad, or the reverse, CNBC is the way to go.
Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#35Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not according to many commentators on CNBC. I don’t understand all the details. Personally, I think it would be great to understand the economy at a more basic level rather than what’s put out for the general public to consume in the often overly simplified terms. For example, the condition of the economy vs the Fed raising rates will be interesting. The Fed is trying to slow the economy but much of the inflation pro…
CNBC? That’s a great non-partisan source you cited there.
Yes, it is actually pretty good. In the morning, Joe tends to lean a bit right and Andrew leans a bit left.
Ever watch Fox Business? They talk politics all day long. I try to deal with it during commercial breaks but it can’t seem to stick to business.
Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#36Earlier quoted context omitted.
Kind of amazing how this administration isn’t getting the kind of ridicule that would be expected if the previous administration tried to deny a recession was happening according to the objective definition by including a subjective qualifier. Is this not the same thing as ‘alternate facts’?
Soon people will start disappearing from photos, back to the future style.
Or Stalin Style.
Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#37Earlier quoted context omitted.
According to the White House, it is not [1] https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2022/07/21/...
Kind of amazing how this administration isn’t getting the kind of ridicule that would be expected if the previous administration tried to deny a recession was happening according to the objective definition by including a subjective qualifier. Is this not the same thing as ‘alternate facts’?
It's fairly obvious there are political bias in american media and always has been. If your party is hostile to increasing federal government or regulatory capture you will be under a microscope and even sacrifice some credibility to attack you, otherwise you can bumble around, redefine common terms, deflect and mislead and have the entirety of relevant and 'trusted' media sources run cover for you indefinitely.
Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#38Quoted post unavailable.
Do you have evidence she was lying versus being wrong? A number of notable economists thought inflation was transitory. It’s hard to predict things like the effect the war in Ukraine would have and the effect the shipping industry doing its thing would have.
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Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#39Quoted post unavailable.
Do you have evidence she was lying versus being wrong? A number of notable economists thought inflation was transitory. It’s hard to predict things like the effect the war in Ukraine would have and the effect the shipping industry doing its thing would have.
The lying is the present attempt to tell us we’re not in a recession.
And her failure to appreciate the scale of the price inflation problem was not just a case of being “wrong.” She was unable to see the worst inflation in 40 years when it was standing right in front of her.
She’s a miserable failure.
Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
#40Earlier quoted context omitted.
Quoted post unavailable.
Their procedure is subjective, but there is still a standardized measure of convenience, no? Just like there is an "official kilogram". We can say, "That's an objective measurement of weight on Earth" but it's not. It's the measurement of the standard kilogram in France. And that "objective" measure can change [1]. It doesn't mean there isn't a consensus on what a kilogram is. Yellen was on Meet the Press last week e…
The kilogram is a quite poor analogy. The GDP is not an objective indicator of recession for the exact reasons you see around you right now. Contraction of economic activity caused by supply bottlenecks doesn’t fit the pattern of recession. The labor situation is still white hot, prices are going up etc.