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China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

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Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#171

Post by Thorrez »

viraptor wrote: post #149
nonethewiser wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ypu would if you didn't just read the homepage. There is Chinese all over it.

Maybe we get a different version for some reason, but the only indication I get is oschina.cn in the footer. Not a Chinese character on the whole page.

For me it's almost entirely English, but with a small bit of Chinese language and references references:

>Opensource to China

>Founded in ShenZhen, China in 2013

>The leading SAAS provider in China

>©OSCHINA. All rights reserved

>git@oschina.cn

>12377@2x 违法和不良信息举报中心 粤ICP备12009483号

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#172

Post by 411111111111111 »

TeeMassive wrote: post #134
holografix wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess you haven’t heard about what happened to Jack Ma recently

Jack Ma was a figurehead and didn't know anything about tech (see his interview with Musk). Musk has a very deep understanding of tech of his companies (at least for a CEO), so are most other American tech CEOs. As was pointed out, you can't siphon away tech like you can do with oil and other commodities without making things stop working.

> Musk has a very deep understanding of tech of his companies

Like with his white paper for the Hyperloop which was fundamentally wrong and couldn't have worked? Or with his idea of putting Hyperloop segments on.... Wheels? Or with his idea to make the whole rocket reusable, until SpaceX accepted reality and pivoted to at least partial reusability? Or to cite current examples: full self driving that doesn't actively kill drivers when...? And while I'd love to have one, his idea for that household robot is straight out impossible with current technology.

If anything, musk is an example of the parent, as all of his companies improved after they got over his original technical ideas.

I don't understand why people keep wanting to put celebrities on high pedestals with completely unrealistic expectations. He's a successful businessman and extremely talented influencer, he has enough achievements to his name without randomly adding more to it.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#173

Post by tsimionescu »

chii wrote: post #170
cowmoo728 wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see it as they can't control technology and academia without stifling it in the process

I suspect that they will "merely" need to instill enough propaganda and "brainwashing" politically onto academia such that those who have the knowledge and skill would not go against the CCP. This effectively restricts the talent pool - those who are smart are likely able to see thru any propaganda. And those that are smart are also more capable of emigrating overseas where you make more money anyway. So it's not abo…

> This effectively restricts the talent pool - those who are smart are likely able to see thru any propaganda.

This is rarely true. People can be, and often are, extremely smart in one field and idiots in others. The fact that they think otherwise is often part of the problem. Especially since propaganda is often layered - everyone knows something is propaganda, but that doesn't help you understand the truth, and there is often subtler propaganda that guides those who see the blatant propaganda to the "right truth".

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#174

Post by tsimionescu »

chaostheory wrote: post #143
TeeMassive wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jack Ma was a figurehead and didn't know anything about tech (see his interview with Musk). Musk has a very deep understanding of tech of his companies (at least for a CEO), so are most other American tech CEOs. As was pointed out, you can't siphon away tech like you can do with oil and other commodities without making things stop working.

Maybe Zhang Yiming and Colin Huang are better examples? If not, there are plenty more. The fact is that extreme centralized economic planning is the enemy of innovation.

This is a common legend, but it's hard to accept. China is way more innovative than much of Europe for example. The USSR was actually an extremely innovative place as well.

Also, huge corporations are themselves extremely centrally planned, and that is where much of their strengths lie. There's a reason why Apple was able to capitalize on the smartphone, and it wasn't some market of suppliers.

The problem with centralized planning is that it tends to ignore many local concerns, often with disastrous consequences, especially when leaders start to ignore any feedback from below in their central planning. This has caused the downfall of innumerable companies in various markets, but there is usually another company to take their place. When used by countries, it causes famines and other avoidable disasters, as happened in much of the USSR and China, especially under Mao's monstrous regime.

But when done right, as it was in China after the 90s and before the Pooh, it has also caused the single biggest reduction in poverty in world history, measured by number of people.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#175

Post by prox »

everybodyknows wrote: post #77
ratsmack wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Three years ago I built a house to sell (I was general contractor) on a city lot my family owned. Before a single shovel of dirt was turned over, we had to pay around seventy thousand dollars for plan review, power connection, water, sewer and gas. This really opened my eyes as to how much mitigation costs have risen over the years. I had built a house in the same area in 1989 and the initial costs were one tenth of…

Seems a punitive tax on the entrepreneurial middle class. Such fixed costs might be insignificant for a palatial home. At the other end, large-scale developers know all about negotiating discounts and otherwise offloading costs.

There was a great article on this system, basically to build a house you need to have so much skill to navigate the maze of red tape, rules and regulations and so on.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#176

Post by senttoschool »

CoastalCoder wrote: post #19

The linked story kind of buries the context info: > Nomura said the refusal to pay mortgages stems from the widespread practice in China of selling homes before they’re built. Funds from presales are kept in escrow accounts to use for construction. But confidence that projects will be completed has weakened as developers’ cash woes intensified. > “Inappropriate usage of presale proceeds and the lack of adequate super…

>widespread practice in China of selling homes before they’re built.

Literally how every condo project in Asia is sold. Not sure how it is like in Europe.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#177

Post by cuteboy19 »

thriftwy wrote: post #78
cuteboy19 wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Externally, the US has been eager to strengthen its control over Canada, Mexico and Cuba, the 'backyard' of the US This is so true. China has either directly invaded or has bad relations with every one of its neighbours. Even the communist ones. Even those seperated by sea. Only reason why this bullying is tolearted is because they are rich now

It looks to me that China has decent relations with Russia, Mongolia, and even central asian Kazakhstan/Kirgisia/Tajikistan (of course there are some ethnic and economical tensions dragging this back, not to mention the issue of Uighurs who are related). China also has good relations with Pakistan.

They have had a war with USSR in the past. Nixon had to intervene and stop them from Nuking Russia

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#178

Post by differentView »

ganyu wrote: post #27
CoastalCoder wrote: post #19

The linked story kind of buries the context info: > Nomura said the refusal to pay mortgages stems from the widespread practice in China of selling homes before they’re built. Funds from presales are kept in escrow accounts to use for construction. But confidence that projects will be completed has weakened as developers’ cash woes intensified. > “Inappropriate usage of presale proceeds and the lack of adequate super…

Short (?) intro for those who don't know how it works in CN: 1. Local govts are in heavy debt and sell land to pay back their debt. 2. Real estate corps pay a hell lot of money (don't care where they get them) to purchase a land ownership (for 70 years max) from the govt. 3. Before construction even begins, the real estate corps start selling the houses to citizens. 4. Citizens pay up to 40% of the total price on the…

>4. Citizens pay up to 40% of the total price on their own, and ask the bank to lend them the rest of the 60% and get it paid back in the NEXT 30 YEARS (often paying as much as twice as the original price).

So they're less leveraged than most American home purchases of 5~20% down payment. 30-year mortgages are also standard in the U.S. You emphasized "NEXT 30 YEARS". Do you think it should be longer or shorter?

>5. The bank gives 60% directly to the real estate corp. So in fact the citizen IS OWING MONEY TO THE BANK, and not to the estate corp.

That's how mortgages work. Why else would a bank be involved if the money is still owed to the seller? Do you think mortgages shouldn't be a thing, that people should save up 100% of the money then pay in full when purchasing a home?

>6. Often, the real estate corp uses this money to pay back previous loans, or use this money to purchase more land from the local govt. So current (future) constructions pretty much depends on whether this Ponzi scheme could continue.

You keep describing how this works in most places as if it's something outrageous.

>8. ...until no typical citizen will be able to afford it.

We're way ahead of China getting to this point here.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#179

Post by dirtyid »

atwood22 wrote: post #167
jpgvm wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It does answer the question you just want to look past it. Chinese state-owned commercial banks (SCOBs) account for ~40% of the market alone, another 40% or so is rural banks etc, all of which are under incredibly strict regulation. You can't compare the state of US banking in 2008 to what we currently see in China, they aren't even remotely close in terms of regulation, capital requirements and auditing. Current day…

> 40% or so is rural banks etc Aren’t those the banks that were taken over by gangs and has their funds embezzled? You’re painting way too rosy a picture of the Chinese financial system. It’s taken months to make rural depositors while after having their money stolen. They’re still waiting.

~300/4400 banks represening ~1% (I think 500B USD worth) of total PRC banking assets fell within the high risk category according to PBOC audit last year. Which included the rural banks running the high interest scam by gangs hence the April crack down. For reference the 24 major banks hold 70% of assets. Interestingly these stats were released in PBOC Q1 press briefing in mid April that seems to coincide with hammer falling on these banks. It's a hit on small rural bank reputation, but it's not catastrophic. Shouldn't be surprise it will take months to untangle mess and determine whether / who should be compensated by national bank insurance scheme for non-compliant transactions from obvious scam (10% interest). So far they've settled to compensate clients with 50k rmb or less on Monday to spare small time dummies who got scammed. Questionable if larger depositers will, or should be compensated.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#180

Post by chii »

differentView wrote: post #178
ganyu wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Short (?) intro for those who don't know how it works in CN: 1. Local govts are in heavy debt and sell land to pay back their debt. 2. Real estate corps pay a hell lot of money (don't care where they get them) to purchase a land ownership (for 70 years max) from the govt. 3. Before construction even begins, the real estate corps start selling the houses to citizens. 4. Citizens pay up to 40% of the total price on the…

>4. Citizens pay up to 40% of the total price on their own, and ask the bank to lend them the rest of the 60% and get it paid back in the NEXT 30 YEARS (often paying as much as twice as the original price). So they're less leveraged than most American home purchases of 5~20% down payment. 30-year mortgages are also standard in the U.S. You emphasized "NEXT 30 YEARS". Do you think it should be longer or shorter? >5. T…

> So they're less leveraged than most American home purchases of 5~20% down payment.

the american home is already built (mostly), for such a down-payment. The bank takes the home as collateral.

If it was an off-the-plan purchase (which is what the OP described), you don't really pay the full amount, but just a deposit (like 10-20%). The risk of the development falls solely onto the developers, not the buyer - the deposit is held in escrow, not used for funds to pay for construction or other developer activities.

> You keep describing how this works in most places as if it's something outrageous

that's because it is, when you compare it to western developments. The risk in real estate development in china lies solely on the buyer, and it's absolutely not the case in the west.

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