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China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

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Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#21

Post by bigcat12345678 »

Erlangen wrote: post #15

The censoring is so horrible that Chinese are using other country's name to substitute China. For example, there is a question in Zhihu, "Will China become the next technological powerhouse?". The answer is talking about Russia literally, but it's about China. (Below is the answer translated by deepl). I don't want to talk about China, I want to talk about Russia. Can Russia become the next technological powerhouse?…

Links please? I'll have to keep this in my archive for funniest workaround of censorship...

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#22

Post by ganyu »

vkou wrote: post #6
m3kw9 wrote: post #5

They can’t block GitHub because a lot of chinese tech firms depend on it. That is something very hard to develop locally because the entire world can contribute

They can't block GitHub, but all it takes is one phone call to Redmond, and their problem will go away. Microsoft has no issue with getting rid of politically problematic repos. https://www.technadu.com/github-removes-protest-organizing-a... - when Microsoft won't respect the right to protest in Spain, they won't give two figs about that same right in China. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vice.com/amp/en/article/8x…

What I can tell you is that GitHub is barely accessible in Mainland.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#23

Post by pessimizer »

Sounds like the government caused this boycott by trying to rein in the exact activity that the boycotts are protesting. If they're censoring it, it's probably because they're trying to soften the effect on overextended banks. If the government hadn't insisted on functioning in the first place, the mortgage holders would still be in ignorant bliss.

If China could afford to damage these banks (or if the people who run them fail to have the right connections and attitude), it seems like it would actually benefit the government to publicize these boycotts as further support for the crackdown.

In the US, we'd just call the papers and get them to all run stories about a new trend among right-wing conspiracy theorists to stop paying their mortgages, relate them somehow to tax protesters and sovereign citizens, call them freeloaders, and insist that the figures being spread around about the number of people involved are probably from covert Russian sources.

edit: I mean, after that we'd start censoring, demonetizing, think-tank fact-checking and downranking, but only after accusing everyone involved of being a terrorist.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#24

Post by pessimizer »

thriftwy wrote: post #17
helge9210 wrote: post #7

Let's assume, there is no censorship and anyone can join the boycott. What is the intended successful outcome of the boycott? If noone would do anything (no boycott), some customers would have to pay mortgage for apartments that won't be finished ever. With boycott, the blast radius will be bigger, possibly affecting the banking system. What options do authorities have?

Go along with the law? People who boycott mortgages get their properties confiscated by court eventually, and if any developments suffer issues government should aid developers to ensure any paid customers get their property done.

But the boycotts are rational, because even the Chinese government thinks that the developers are overextended and may fail. They seem to be taking the most careful, benign option.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#25

Post by londons_explore »

helge9210 wrote: post #7

Let's assume, there is no censorship and anyone can join the boycott. What is the intended successful outcome of the boycott? If noone would do anything (no boycott), some customers would have to pay mortgage for apartments that won't be finished ever. With boycott, the blast radius will be bigger, possibly affecting the banking system. What options do authorities have?

It need not be a collective boycott... It can be individual people making individual decisions to not pay the mortgage because they believe that paying is a waste of money. Ie. why pay monthly for a house which will never be completed? You're just pouring money away!

If you don't pay, the property will be taken off you, and probably valued at a high valuation (because the property developer wouldn't want to have their unbuilt properties selling for cents on the dollar). That means you probably will escape bankruptcy or any further debt.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#26

Post by [deleted] »

CoastalCoder wrote: post #19

The linked story kind of buries the context info: > Nomura said the refusal to pay mortgages stems from the widespread practice in China of selling homes before they’re built. Funds from presales are kept in escrow accounts to use for construction. But confidence that projects will be completed has weakened as developers’ cash woes intensified. > “Inappropriate usage of presale proceeds and the lack of adequate super…

[deleted]

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#27

Post by ganyu »

CoastalCoder wrote: post #19

The linked story kind of buries the context info: > Nomura said the refusal to pay mortgages stems from the widespread practice in China of selling homes before they’re built. Funds from presales are kept in escrow accounts to use for construction. But confidence that projects will be completed has weakened as developers’ cash woes intensified. > “Inappropriate usage of presale proceeds and the lack of adequate super…

Short (?) intro for those who don't know how it works in CN:

1. Local govts are in heavy debt and sell land to pay back their debt.

2. Real estate corps pay a hell lot of money (don't care where they get them) to purchase a land ownership (for 70 years max) from the govt.

3. Before construction even begins, the real estate corps start selling the houses to citizens.

4. Citizens pay up to 40% of the total price on their own, and ask the bank to lend them the rest of the 60% and get it paid back in the NEXT 30 YEARS (often paying as much as twice as the original price).

5. The bank gives 60% directly to the real estate corp. So in fact the citizen IS OWING MONEY TO THE BANK, and not to the estate corp.

6. Often, the real estate corp uses this money to pay back previous loans, or use this money to purchase more land from the local govt. So current (future) constructions pretty much depends on whether this Ponzi scheme could continue.

7. With the money earned from selling the land, the local govt could pay back the loan and ask for more, in order to build more infrastructure so as to pull up estate prices, from which it can earn more by selling more land.

8. ...until no typical citizen will be able to afford it.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#28

Post by thriftwy »

pessimizer wrote: post #24
thriftwy wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Go along with the law? People who boycott mortgages get their properties confiscated by court eventually, and if any developments suffer issues government should aid developers to ensure any paid customers get their property done.

But the boycotts are rational, because even the Chinese government thinks that the developers are overextended and may fail. They seem to be taking the most careful, benign option.

Chinese government should offer hard guarantees that all properties would eventually be completed, and at the same time that bad lenders may lose theirs.

In Russia it's quite common occurrence that a very late project by a failed developer is eventually completed and the lenders get their apartments at last, after regional government intervention.

In China it should be even simpler as the money never leave the escrow account. I wonder if there are un-escrow provisions if developer fails to deliver - in theory there should be no risk at all.

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#29

Post by ganyu »

bigcat12345678 wrote: post #21
Erlangen wrote: post #15

The censoring is so horrible that Chinese are using other country's name to substitute China. For example, there is a question in Zhihu, "Will China become the next technological powerhouse?". The answer is talking about Russia literally, but it's about China. (Below is the answer translated by deepl). I don't want to talk about China, I want to talk about Russia. Can Russia become the next technological powerhouse?…

Links please? I'll have to keep this in my archive for funniest workaround of censorship...

Somewhere under this thread: https://www.zhihu.com/question/307148675

Remember to ORDER BY time DESC

Re: China mortgage boycott data erased by censors as crisis spreads

#30

Post by Erlangen »

bigcat12345678 wrote: post #21
Erlangen wrote: post #15

The censoring is so horrible that Chinese are using other country's name to substitute China. For example, there is a question in Zhihu, "Will China become the next technological powerhouse?". The answer is talking about Russia literally, but it's about China. (Below is the answer translated by deepl). I don't want to talk about China, I want to talk about Russia. Can Russia become the next technological powerhouse?…

Links please? I'll have to keep this in my archive for funniest workaround of censorship...

The answer above has been deleted, but this answer is even better. Replace US with China. But to understand it, you need to be familiar of modern Chinese history.

https://www.zhihu.com/question/439676867/answer/2559528806

1. The United States has not been fascist until recently, but has been a fascist state since its founding. However, the US has not always been so fascist since its founding, and there was a period of relative normality during the Reagan years. In contrast, the fascisation of recent years has been particularly striking.

2. In terms of internal causes, the relative openness of the US was due to the fact that the McCarthy movement had gone too far and not only did the people become unhappy, but eventually the government became unhappy. So there was a temporary social consensus that fascisation had to be curbed. However, Trump himself was not a victim of the McCarthy movement and has been in good government since its end. He therefore did not personally resent it much. And in order to preserve the shining image of the Republican Party and to put an end to the leftist media of the Democratic Party engaging in the practice of Fake News. When Trump was in office, he directly disallowed statements that publicly denied the history of the Great Depression to the McCarthy movement. In this way, the new generation in the US also became predominantly favourable to the McCarthy movement, promoting the return of fascism to American society.

3. Externally, the US has been eager to strengthen its control over Canada, Mexico and Cuba, the 'backyard' of the US. This has not only caused resentment among the local population, but has also been widely criticised in international public opinion. If you talk about the Wilson Doctrine at this time, then the scandalous things you have done in the US are in themselves the opposite of what you want to do. The theory you preach turns out to be a slap in your own face, and you might as well not preach it at all. Instead, by picking up the ragged flag of fascism, you can explain the justification for these hegemonic acts of the US. And so its propaganda tone leans more and more towards fascism. This is the reality that needs to dictate the discourse.

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