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Dmitry Rogozin has been dismissed as director general of Roscosmos

arstechnica.com

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Re: Dmitry Rogozin has been dismissed as director general of Roscosmos

#151

Post by lotusmars »

JeremyNT wrote: post #133
lotusmars wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sanctions will be lifted or eased long before tech embargo hits. Putin has too many points to cause pain for European politicians. For example grain shortage caused by his naval operations will cause hunger in North Africa. Revolts and refugee influx to Europe will follow. It’s enough for Europeans to put pressure on Ukraine to surrender. If it doesn’t they will spoon-feed it arms so it will surrender by fall.

I feel like a protracted proxy war in Ukraine was never really on the table. What we've seen so far is the US and its allies forcing Russia to pay a "price" for its adventurism. The value of this is both to act as a deterrent against future actions and to strengthen Ukraine's negotiating power when it ultimately surrenders. I suspect that at a certain point everybody will be satisfied with the level of pain exacted,…

Not a critically high price anyway. Gas prices cover everything and complicit German politicians don’t consider stopping paying. Looks like Putin’s gamble played well once again, he knows his European counterparts well.

Re: Dmitry Rogozin has been dismissed as director general of Roscosmos

#152

Post by lotusmars »

dragonwriter wrote: post #122
lotusmars wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why should Putin’s regime collapse? Ruble is strong, people got +20% instant raise because of sanctions. Germany pours billions into Russian economy. Save for Netflix not working anymore, life in Moscow is even better than pre-war.

> Why should Putin’s regime collapse? Historically—not universally, of course, but frequently enough to be noteworthy—people have been observed to be displeased with leadership that unproductively transforms large numbers of their youth into corpses.

Listen to recordings of calls to Russian soldiers’s mothers. The families fully support invasion. They are glued to TV and Telegram which explain that Ukrainians bomb themselves and Russian soldiers are brave liberators fighting against gay Nazi Americans.

Besides that soldiers send a lot of stolen goods back home. There was an infamous video from the office of a transport company with dozens of soldiers sending loot like washing machines.

Re: Dmitry Rogozin has been dismissed as director general of Roscosmos

#153

Post by mike_k »

vogre wrote: post #129
TheLoafOfBread wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are already running out of Kalibr and Iskander missiles. Why would they started using S300 in Groun 2 Ground role? https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-now-firing-s-30...

Quoted post unavailable.

Any proofs?

Re: Dmitry Rogozin has been dismissed as director general of Roscosmos

#154

Post by philistine »

TheLoafOfBread wrote: post #115
inglor_cz wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What difference? They hit random civilian targets far behind the frontline. This makes people angry, but does not significantly contribute to attrition of the Ukrainian military. The recent cruise missile hits in Ukrainian cities haven't helped the Russians acquire even a square inch of new territory.

I don't understand this terror tactic either. * It will only more cement Ukrainians against them * It will have no negative influence on Ukrainian military nor aviation. * Ukraine will use those attacks in their own propaganda to get more weapons and money from the West. So those attacks are a waste of military assets with marginally negative gain. Who in Russian leadership is planning those dumb attacks?

Think instead of the people who have authority over these weapon systems. How much time they spent training to use those weapons. How important it must feel to them that their weapons are used.

The fact that the intelligence needed to give them valuable targets is a secondary concern. Their main concern is the readiness and cohesion that come from pressing the fire button.

Re: Dmitry Rogozin has been dismissed as director general of Roscosmos

#155

Post by yakak »

lotusmars wrote: post #148
inglor_cz wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"beats any arms supplies possible" Very observably not. Russia seems to be actually incapable of buying any modern weapons for the billions of euros it receives from Germany. Even China considers such cooperation too risky. The technical level of Russian equipment deployed in the battles in Ukraine has gone downhill since February. Now they are pulling really old stuff (designed or even manufactured in the 1950s-1960…

There is no need in sophisticated weaponry or even artillery when you have endless literal cannon fodder. Hide or deny losses and drag on just enough to exhaust your opponent. A year of slow territorial gains? Two? More? Not a problem as long as economy is propped by European money, Germans don’t bother sending enough weapons and Western media is tired of war and looks elsewhere.

Russia already had poor demographics before and now it is possibly spending years losing military age males?

Russia as a low prospect J-curve state might not be entertaining to the western media but it is basically the outcome the US has been gunning for since Gorbachev left, always with a lot of resistance from Germany. After a few more years of setting up alternative gas routes, I'm not sure Germany will even have a way to offer Russia yet another chance.

Re: Dmitry Rogozin has been dismissed as director general of Roscosmos

#156

Post by mrguyorama »

tomjen3 wrote: post #88
SantiagoElf wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You mean, how Russia technically controls 20-25% of Ukraine's territory ? Do you see what those sanctions against Russian cheap energy are doing in Europe: - Estonia Goverment fell - Bulgaria Goverment fell - UK Goverment fell - Italy's PM resigned It's not even August. Do you know what will happen when colder months hit ? :)

The UK government fell because Boris was a lying fool to the wrong people. Be careful not to assume that because something big happened it must be the cause of something else.

Specifically, I would say Boris's support for Ukraine is one of the only non-controversial things he has done as prime minister.

Re: Dmitry Rogozin has been dismissed as director general of Roscosmos

#157

Post by sam_lowry_ »

theplumber wrote: post #134
lotusmars wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Russia homophobia is such an integral part of society and day to day life (due to prison culture) that those horrific, dehumanizing and derogatory words you’ve mentioned are actually considered “pejorative rather than grossly offensive” N-word as well. Ordinary Russians will fight tooth and nail for their right to use this word.

>> N-word as well. Ordinary Russians will fight tooth and nail for their right to use this word. To be honest I believe the americans promoted the n-word and they still do it MORE than anyone else(i.e russia). Just listen a random rap song or watch a movie with black people. It seems part of the american culture. As someone from a small European country I couldn't really understand how a word can be both "forbidden"…

Hello word?

Re: Dmitry Rogozin has been dismissed as director general of Roscosmos

#158

Post by tablespoon »

norwalkbear wrote: post #137
inglor_cz wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On paper, certainly. But a lot of those missiles have been stored somewhere in Siberia for 40+ years. Their condition is probably less than stellar. Who would regularly inspect and maintain random ammo dumps located five timezones away from Moscow in the middle of nowhere? I suspect that at least some of those missiles are outright out of commission and others are unstable enough to be a danger to the Russians themse…

Maybe but those are big assumptions. Does the USA inspect it's missiles in the middle of nowhere?

> Maybe but those are big assumptions. Does the USA inspect it's missiles in the middle of nowhere?

The US almost certainly does, but the Russians might not. They've been shown to have neglected routine maintenance in ways that caused very critical problems for their military (e.g. they lost a lot of expensive advanced vehicles, because their unmaintained knock-off tires disintegrated).

Both these videos are long, but they had a lot of interesting ideas and insight on this topic:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9i47sgi-V4 [specifically 33:10] (How Corruption Destroys Armies - Theft, Graft, and Russian failure in Ukraine)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJkmcNjh_bg (All Bling, no Basics - Why Ukraine has embarrassed the Russian Military)

Re: Dmitry Rogozin has been dismissed as director general of Roscosmos

#159

Post by gdy »

lotusmars wrote: post #145
gdy wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you call Donetsk and Lugansk "Donbwabwe and Luganda"? It's clearly a play on the names of African countries Zimbabwe and Uganda, but was is your message? Is it a show of disparaging attitude towards the people living in the East of Ukraine?

Not people. Criminal neo-Stalinist enclaves that Lungansk and Donetsk were turned into by Russia. People routinely disappear, being put in the basement (na podval), tortured for smallest reasons. Drafts when people are being used a cannon fodder. It’s a disgrace what Putin’s people turned this place into over 8 years. Same or worse fate awaits newly occupied territories too.

Is Crimea a criminal neo-Stalinist enclave too? Just asking.

Re: Dmitry Rogozin has been dismissed as director general of Roscosmos

#160

Post by oneoff786 »

inglor_cz wrote: post #85
qaq wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HIMARS is a very formidable addition to the arsenal, but in general quantities supplied are extremely modest to really turn the tide. Hopefully the deliveries will step up.

They are enough to f*ck up Russian logistics behind the lines. Without a massive supply of shells from the rear to the guns themselves, the Russian artillery is incapable of executing their beloved "bomb everything into pieces" WWI-style doctrine. And the Ukrainians have destroyed an untold number of Russian ammo dumps in the last weeks. Some of the explosions have been truly spectacular. This isn't something you can…

HIMARS might be enough to retake things far away from Russia though. Russias logistics are terrible.
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