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Dmitry Rogozin has been dismissed as director general of Roscosmos

arstechnica.com

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Re: Dmitry Rogozin has been dismissed as director general of Roscosmos

#111

Post by JumpCrisscross »

UkrainianJew wrote: post #68

I find it rather worrying in the long term. Russia has been an extremely inefficient and corrupt state for the past 2 decades. Export oil & gas, import everything else, let the cronies pocket the proceeds, while having most manufacturing, defense and tech exist mostly on paper. People like Rogozin were promoted based on the loyalty and willingness to give a cut of the pie further up the ladder. Currently this trend a…

> don't like where this is going

I do. Worst case, we wind up with Russia under China’s thumb. Not ideal. But Pyongyang isn’t rolling tanks over its borders.

Best case: a disassembly of the Russian empire. Why Moscow tells Siberians and Tatars what to do is an anachronism, start to finish. It sort of made sense when the Kremlin had its head screwed on straight. Now, it doesn’t.

Re: Dmitry Rogozin has been dismissed as director general of Roscosmos

#112

Post by mahoro »

vbezhenar wrote: post #62

I think he was good manager, good luck to him. It seems that Russia will concentrate on mostly military space applications from now on. So different kind of management will be required.

> I think he was good manager

Oh, probably that's why in Russia he's known as 'Undertaker of space industry'. It makes sense.

Re: Dmitry Rogozin has been dismissed as director general of Roscosmos

#113

Post by dragonwriter »

pmontra wrote: post #95
dragonwriter wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If Russia is pushed back into its borders, it will take a couple of years to ramp up weapons production and will retry Or the current regime will collapse. That often happens with large scale defeats, especially without a democratic outlet for internal change within the system.

I saw very few regime collapses unless an army steps into the capital. That's not going to happen to Russia (Mutual Assured Destruction.) The worst it will happen to Putin is that he'll be locked in into Russia and have to kill more and more Russian people.

> I saw very few regime collapses unless an army steps into the capital. That's not going to happen to Russia (Mutual Assured Destruction.)

The reference to MAD makes sense only in the context of foreign armies (and with the M only those of major nuclear powers), but if you look at the two immediate predecessors of the modern Russian Federation (the USSR and the Russian Empire), both fell without a foreign army entering the capital, and are hardly unique in history in doing so. And to the extent status as a major nuclear power is relevant to that, the USSR had it just as much as the Russian Federation does.

Re: Dmitry Rogozin has been dismissed as director general of Roscosmos

#114

Post by lotusmars »

Wertigoyr wrote: post #71
UkrainianJew wrote: post #68

I find it rather worrying in the long term. Russia has been an extremely inefficient and corrupt state for the past 2 decades. Export oil & gas, import everything else, let the cronies pocket the proceeds, while having most manufacturing, defense and tech exist mostly on paper. People like Rogozin were promoted based on the loyalty and willingness to give a cut of the pie further up the ladder. Currently this trend a…

Russia has plenty of things missing (chips etc.) This will take much more than just a few years.

Sanctions will be lifted or eased long before tech embargo hits.

Putin has too many points to cause pain for European politicians.

For example grain shortage caused by his naval operations will cause hunger in North Africa. Revolts and refugee influx to Europe will follow.

It’s enough for Europeans to put pressure on Ukraine to surrender. If it doesn’t they will spoon-feed it arms so it will surrender by fall.

Re: Dmitry Rogozin has been dismissed as director general of Roscosmos

#115

Post by TheLoafOfBread »

inglor_cz wrote: post #98
narrator wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing that the west is unwilling to do is give the Ukrainians cruise missiles. The Russians have lots and lots of these in the form of Kalibr and Iskander missiles that they launch from ships and mobile launchers and it seems to be making all the difference.

What difference? They hit random civilian targets far behind the frontline. This makes people angry, but does not significantly contribute to attrition of the Ukrainian military. The recent cruise missile hits in Ukrainian cities haven't helped the Russians acquire even a square inch of new territory.

I don't understand this terror tactic either.

* It will only more cement Ukrainians against them

* It will have no negative influence on Ukrainian military nor aviation.

* Ukraine will use those attacks in their own propaganda to get more weapons and money from the West.

So those attacks are a waste of military assets with marginally negative gain. Who in Russian leadership is planning those dumb attacks?

Re: Dmitry Rogozin has been dismissed as director general of Roscosmos

#116

Post by lotusmars »

dragonwriter wrote: post #113
pmontra wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I saw very few regime collapses unless an army steps into the capital. That's not going to happen to Russia (Mutual Assured Destruction.) The worst it will happen to Putin is that he'll be locked in into Russia and have to kill more and more Russian people.

> I saw very few regime collapses unless an army steps into the capital. That's not going to happen to Russia (Mutual Assured Destruction.) The reference to MAD makes sense only in the context of foreign armies (and with the M only those of major nuclear powers), but if you look at the two immediate predecessors of the modern Russian Federation (the USSR and the Russian Empire), both fell without a foreign army enter…

Why even discuss MAD or nuclear when Putin gets what he wants without it?

Germans finance his war efforts with billions of euros and drag their feet on arming Ukraine.

Europeans generally pressure Ukraine to surrender.

Why risk it? Just wait, time is on his side.

Re: Dmitry Rogozin has been dismissed as director general of Roscosmos

#117

Post by JumpCrisscross »

tablespoon wrote: post #103
narrator wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing that the west is unwilling to do is give the Ukrainians cruise missiles. The Russians have lots and lots of these in the form of Kalibr and Iskander missiles that they launch from ships and mobile launchers and it seems to be making all the difference.

> The Russians have lots and lots of these in the form of Kalibar and Islander missiles that they launch from ships and mobile launchers and it seems to be making all the difference. Do they still have them or have they used most of them up? IIRC, for all the attention they get, the US has surprisingly few cruise missiles and would use up its stockpiles pretty quickly in a war like that in Ukraine.

Given what we’ve seen, the ones that weren’t delivered inoperable due to corruption likely lack targeting infrastructure.

Re: Dmitry Rogozin has been dismissed as director general of Roscosmos

#118

Post by lotusmars »

qaq wrote: post #82
inglor_cz wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As the Spartans famously said: "If". Ukraine gets massive support from the club of the richest countries on the Earth, and, unlike Germany or France, the Anglo-Saxon behemoths seem to be committed in full. So is Poland, the necessary logistics hub for supplies. Russia is alone, even Iran refused to sell their drones to them. The full impact of this economic and military imbalance cannot be seen yet. The Ukrainian arm…

HIMARS is a very formidable addition to the arsenal, but in general quantities supplied are extremely modest to really turn the tide. Hopefully the deliveries will step up.

They won’t.

Europeans drag their feet on arming Ukraine and pressure it to surrender (“peace”).

The reason is gas and fear of refugee influx to Europe from hunger in Africa.

Plus Germans paying Russia billions for gas beats any arms supplies possible. And they will not stop doing it.

Re: Dmitry Rogozin has been dismissed as director general of Roscosmos

#119

Post by JumpCrisscross »

Rebelgecko wrote: post #84
option wrote: post #63

Thanks to rogozin, Russia is the first ever former space state.

How do you define former space state? For example, IIRC the UK is the only country that voluntarily gave up all launch capabilities (they're trying to reverse this though). The US had a patch not too long ago where we couldn't launch humans ourselves (getting people to the ISS was outsourced to Russia)

> How do you define former space state?

Russia likely lacks the ability to indigenously develop a novel space platform. This is fine. Its economy is between New York and Florida. But for a culture geared towards dignity, it could be dangerous.

Re: Dmitry Rogozin has been dismissed as director general of Roscosmos

#120

Post by inglor_cz »

adgjlsfhk1 wrote: post #107
tablespoon wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The Russians have lots and lots of these in the form of Kalibar and Islander missiles that they launch from ships and mobile launchers and it seems to be making all the difference. Do they still have them or have they used most of them up? IIRC, for all the attention they get, the US has surprisingly few cruise missiles and would use up its stockpiles pretty quickly in a war like that in Ukraine.

Russia is no where near running out of missiles. they still have a ridiculous amount of them.

On paper, certainly.

But a lot of those missiles have been stored somewhere in Siberia for 40+ years. Their condition is probably less than stellar. Who would regularly inspect and maintain random ammo dumps located five timezones away from Moscow in the middle of nowhere?

I suspect that at least some of those missiles are outright out of commission and others are unstable enough to be a danger to the Russians themselves.

Also, see this anti-aircraft gun in action: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IwqmezeSuQ

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