The end of the world is just beginning for shipping • Hacker News Board

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#171

Post by dirtyid » Wed, Jun 22, 2022, 6:39 PM UTC

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #75

I’ve been following Zeihan since his first book. I’m yet to find a credible counter argument to his theses. And he’s being proven right at an alarming pace this year. So far this year we’ve had: - A land war in Europe - Food insecurity in the developing world - Breakdown of supply chains and shipping routes - Nation states resorting to seizing each other’s ships (see Greece-Iran issue recently). Everything that he ha…

>credible counter argument to his theses

Zeihan's thesis is generic geopolitical analysis, which is a fine model, but there's no reason to credit that to him. Really it's about the quality of his predictions which is hard to gauge other than he throws a lot of shit out to see what sticks and occasionally some do. Broken clock etc. Otherwise, he sells US exceptionalism powerpoints to wealthy boomers over expensive dinners. He tends to pile on "natural 20" dice rolls to America's favour and extrapolates from there why Fortress America will be fine no matter how much she FUBARs which undermines the quality of his prediction. It matters if supply chain break down was due to pandemic driven factors rather than active reshoring. Greece-Iran drama was Greece fulfilling US request and eventual release back to Iran - this isn't anarchy caused by US withdraw but US continued engagement/meddling while countries try to minimize fallout - essentially opposite cause of Zeihan prediction. Hard to credit right predictions for wrong reasons. Lastly if demography was destiny, India would be a super power - divident can turn into curse depending on policy and other structural factors.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#172

Post by flashgordon » Wed, Jun 22, 2022, 6:40 PM UTC

hintymad wrote: post #167

This is probably an unpopular opinion: it pains me to see the manufacturing industry decline in the US. I don't really mind paying $300 for a pair of shoes. Yes, it will be expensive, but then I'll just buy fewer pairs. In return, more people get decent jobs, or so I hope. And no, I'm not talking about just the so-called "low-end" manufacturing, but also the high end. Indeed, how can we even grow "high-end" talent if…

+1 - Id also argue that even though that show costs $300 we have enough of a market and population to have competition drive prices down in a generation or two (if not faster).

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#173

Post by ProjectArcturis » Wed, Jun 22, 2022, 6:41 PM UTC

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #75

I’ve been following Zeihan since his first book. I’m yet to find a credible counter argument to his theses. And he’s being proven right at an alarming pace this year. So far this year we’ve had: - A land war in Europe - Food insecurity in the developing world - Breakdown of supply chains and shipping routes - Nation states resorting to seizing each other’s ships (see Greece-Iran issue recently). Everything that he ha…

I've never heard of Zeihan. The article touts his prowess of predicting a Russian invasion of Ukraine in his book published in late 2014. Well, Russia had just seized Crimea and eastern Donbass in February of 2014, so this doesn't strike me as a particularly prescient call.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#174

Post by Miraste » Wed, Jun 22, 2022, 6:41 PM UTC

smt88 wrote: post #59

yrgulation wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Their populations will shrink with mathematical certainty. Yeah you know why? Because both parents sitting in offices 8 hours a day have no means of looking after their kids. And a mother giving birth needs to return to work in a few months time, else she there's no pay. Oh and neither parent can give up work to raise these future adults because living expenses are too high. I don't know why everyone is so surprise…

This is a popular theory on reddit, but it's not true. Birth rates are extremely low even in countries that paid parents to stay at home with kids and generally have good work culture. You would also expect birth rates to be lowest among people working 2-3 low-wage jobs, which is also not true. As financial stability and safety increase, birth rates go down. That's the only common driver of it. Historically, children…

Resulting from otherwise positive changes doesn't mean low birth rates aren't a problem. It's a long term one, of course, but they have to be fixed at some point. If the entire world gets to the development level of South Korea with birth rates below 1, civilization will collapse until it regresses to a point that people start having >2 children again.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#175

Post by more_corn » Wed, Jun 22, 2022, 6:41 PM UTC

Aunche wrote: post #155

puranjay wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

His core arguments focus on geography and demographics, both of which are “hard” problems. Declining populations simply cannot maintain the “grow at all costs” current economic order. Even an advanced country like Japan with plenty of automation and high productivity rates hasn’t see any growth in two decades since its population itself doesn’t grow anymore. Even if you don’t go by his more alarmist arguments, you ha…

>you have to agree that in the face of declining populations and ageing demographics, we will have to shift to a new economic model where growth isn’t the only goal Who exactly is setting growth as the "only goal"? It's really only developing countries and the tech sector. Japan and basically are of Europe is more or less fine with their stagnant GDP.

An economy without growth will fall apart. Yuval Noah Harari said it very well. Lenders only lend because there’s faith that $1 loaned today becomes more than $1 paid back tomorrow.

Without growth there’s no incentive to lend. Without lending we’re looking at medieval level economies.

It’s not the only thing we care about, but it’s a necessity. That being said growth can come in all shapes and sizes. Elevating everyone out of poverty is growth. Reducing waste increases efficiency, that’s also growth.

Growth is not a bad word. It’s absolutely required for positive outcomes. The potential for growth is infinite. What, you might ask, about when everyone is elevated out of poverty and waste is largely eliminated? Truly infinite requires growth even beyond that. We should be so lucky to face that problem. But the answer there is obvious as well. The resources available in the universe are effectively infinite.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#176

Post by hedora » Wed, Jun 22, 2022, 6:43 PM UTC

hintymad wrote: post #167

This is probably an unpopular opinion: it pains me to see the manufacturing industry decline in the US. I don't really mind paying $300 for a pair of shoes. Yes, it will be expensive, but then I'll just buy fewer pairs. In return, more people get decent jobs, or so I hope. And no, I'm not talking about just the so-called "low-end" manufacturing, but also the high end. Indeed, how can we even grow "high-end" talent if…

I've recently been surprised much better EU manufacturing is doing than US manufacturing. I don't think cost of labor is the only factor at play.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#177

Post by billbrown » Wed, Jun 22, 2022, 6:43 PM UTC

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #75

I’ve been following Zeihan since his first book. I’m yet to find a credible counter argument to his theses. And he’s being proven right at an alarming pace this year. So far this year we’ve had: - A land war in Europe - Food insecurity in the developing world - Breakdown of supply chains and shipping routes - Nation states resorting to seizing each other’s ships (see Greece-Iran issue recently). Everything that he ha…

He's made available[1] the charts and maps used in the book. I found this one quite illuminating on demographics.[2]

[1] https://zeihan.com/end-of-the-world-maps/ [2] https://zeihan.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/global-fertili...

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#178

Post by ProjectArcturis » Wed, Jun 22, 2022, 6:43 PM UTC

hintymad wrote: post #167

This is probably an unpopular opinion: it pains me to see the manufacturing industry decline in the US. I don't really mind paying $300 for a pair of shoes. Yes, it will be expensive, but then I'll just buy fewer pairs. In return, more people get decent jobs, or so I hope. And no, I'm not talking about just the so-called "low-end" manufacturing, but also the high end. Indeed, how can we even grow "high-end" talent if…

Shoes might be more expensive, but not $300. New Balance still makes shoes in the US, and they're priced about the same as other brands.

But US-made stuff, on the whole, is also better quality and longer-lasting than Chinese.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#179

Post by dukeofdoom » Wed, Jun 22, 2022, 6:44 PM UTC

next_xibalba wrote: post #94

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #75

I’ve been following Zeihan since his first book. I’m yet to find a credible counter argument to his theses. And he’s being proven right at an alarming pace this year. So far this year we’ve had: - A land war in Europe - Food insecurity in the developing world - Breakdown of supply chains and shipping routes - Nation states resorting to seizing each other’s ships (see Greece-Iran issue recently). Everything that he ha…

How many of his predictions have failed? How many are timebound and falsifiable? I am not specifically familiar with Zehain, but I am very well acquainted with figures who generate many predictions, have a small number become true, and then get treated as oracles for years before the truth is exposed: predicting the future in massive, chaotic systems is nearly impossible.

I have the feeling that we might be in our current predicament because a few billionaires are reading the same books, and trying to bring about some ideological nonsense into reality.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#180

Post by nicodjimenez » Wed, Jun 22, 2022, 6:44 PM UTC

hintymad wrote: post #167

This is probably an unpopular opinion: it pains me to see the manufacturing industry decline in the US. I don't really mind paying $300 for a pair of shoes. Yes, it will be expensive, but then I'll just buy fewer pairs. In return, more people get decent jobs, or so I hope. And no, I'm not talking about just the so-called "low-end" manufacturing, but also the high end. Indeed, how can we even grow "high-end" talent if…

If the opinion you share is unpopular, it's because it's correct, and the truth is the enemy of the oligarchs that are scamming citizens in the US and the West in general. US is now a scam that exports inflation and crap 2nd rate weaponry. Scam economy, scam military industrial complex, scam military, scam president, scam everything.

If you have a feeling the US is in decline, it's because it is. The situation is much worse than most Americans realize. There is no hope for either Democrats or Republicans to fix anything here. I recommend to all my friends that they emigrate if they can.