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The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

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Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#141

Post by lostcolony »

colechristensen wrote: post #123
puranjay wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

His core arguments focus on geography and demographics, both of which are “hard” problems. Declining populations simply cannot maintain the “grow at all costs” current economic order. Even an advanced country like Japan with plenty of automation and high productivity rates hasn’t see any growth in two decades since its population itself doesn’t grow anymore. Even if you don’t go by his more alarmist arguments, you ha…

People like to point at Japan and its lack of growth pointing out to various degrees how awful that is, but if you’re actually Japanese, you’re pretty much fine for these decades of zeroish growth. Not to say Japan is an idyllic place free from problems, but the economics of a zero growth society has at least that example of a distinct lack of doom. If the rest of us experience it like that, it’s not really anything…

"People" might, but the post you're replying to didn't. All they said was "Declining populations simply cannot maintain the “grow at all costs” current economic order" which implies a change is necessary, not whether that change is good/bad/whatever.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#142

Post by myself248 »

bombcar wrote: post #134
DennisP wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just read all Zeihan's books. The only counterargument I can think of is that maybe with our interdependent world, sanctions have gotten effective enough to substitute for US military power to some extent. Zeihan himself has said China has to be reevaluating the idea of an attack on Taiwan, after seeing the sanctions and boycotts against Russia. Sanctions haven't stopped Russia but Russia is a food and fuel exporte…

Sanctions are a "one time weapon" I fear, and many many countries are now including "what if we or someone we trade with gets sanctioned by the US" as part of their contingency planning.

Furthermore, after the one-time pain, assuming they survive the pain, the sanctioned nation arguably ends up stronger because they're forced to develop in-house versions of things.

I'm just waiting for China to decide they're strong enough to cut the US off. Assuming we survive the pain, that'll be an interesting day.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#143

Post by walleeee »

idiotsecant wrote: post #112
doliveira wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Feudalism, here we go

It's worth noting that feudalism was stable for much longer than western style democracy has been so far.

Any of this could easily be wrong and I'm by no means an historian or political theorist but I'm in the middle of a book called Absolutism and its Discontents and it's made me a little hesitant to draw too many parallels between medieval feudalism and modern/future corporate serfdom

Feudal Europe, as I understand, was stabilized by the material independence of agrarian enclaves from one another, as well as an absence (in the wretched majority at least) of any conception of politics or a state or secular power over and above the will of the king or the local nobility, with the latter much more relevant to most people

Although there seems to be much controversy among historians I have the impression many agree that the simultaneous (and often antipathetic) rise of absolutism and markets created the series of crises which brought the end of feudalism, and although absolutism is mostly gone, markets are now ubiquitous

Even if supply chains and communications networks fragment I'm not sure the feudalism of old bears much on the modern day unless we lose nearly all the technology developed in the last 500 years

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#144

Post by codefreeordie »

ajuc wrote: post #61
yrgulation wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Their populations will shrink with mathematical certainty. Yeah you know why? Because both parents sitting in offices 8 hours a day have no means of looking after their kids. And a mother giving birth needs to return to work in a few months time, else she there's no pay. Oh and neither parent can give up work to raise these future adults because living expenses are too high. I don't know why everyone is so surprise…

Nah. EU is "the west" too, and it's more people than US. And maternity leaves here are around 6-12 months. Population still decreases. Significant part of EU was under communism and had baby booms then despite abysmal pay and much WORSE standards of living then than now. Now their populations go down despite the face they are much wealthier and well off. I live in Poland. There's no comparison, when I look at photos…

Go back and read Adam Smith. The thing we don't appreciate today is that having more children used to be an investment -- not just in the idea of family, but literally an investment, as kids would grow up enough to start producing more resources than they cost pretty quickly, and were a net contributor to the family.

Nowadays, having kids is wonderful and great and fulfilling and life-changing and all those things -- but economically a disaster.

It is therefore unsurprising that there are so many fewer children. You have to really want them.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#145

Post by DennisP »

bombcar wrote: post #134
DennisP wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just read all Zeihan's books. The only counterargument I can think of is that maybe with our interdependent world, sanctions have gotten effective enough to substitute for US military power to some extent. Zeihan himself has said China has to be reevaluating the idea of an attack on Taiwan, after seeing the sanctions and boycotts against Russia. Sanctions haven't stopped Russia but Russia is a food and fuel exporte…

Sanctions are a "one time weapon" I fear, and many many countries are now including "what if we or someone we trade with gets sanctioned by the US" as part of their contingency planning.

If financial sanctions get bypassed, another cheap US option is to confiscate a couple ships heading to the sanctioned country, making commercial shipping insurance difficult to get.

That would be a pretty big step though, essentially changing the US from the guarantor of the open seas to their biggest threat. So that might precipitate Zeihan's Disorder instead of preventing it.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#146

Post by DennisP »

myself248 wrote: post #142
bombcar wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sanctions are a "one time weapon" I fear, and many many countries are now including "what if we or someone we trade with gets sanctioned by the US" as part of their contingency planning.

Furthermore, after the one-time pain, assuming they survive the pain, the sanctioned nation arguably ends up stronger because they're forced to develop in-house versions of things. I'm just waiting for China to decide they're strong enough to cut the US off. Assuming we survive the pain, that'll be an interesting day.

China imports over 80% of their oil and food/ag inputs, so it'll be a while.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#147

Post by anonporridge »

bombcar wrote: post #134
DennisP wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just read all Zeihan's books. The only counterargument I can think of is that maybe with our interdependent world, sanctions have gotten effective enough to substitute for US military power to some extent. Zeihan himself has said China has to be reevaluating the idea of an attack on Taiwan, after seeing the sanctions and boycotts against Russia. Sanctions haven't stopped Russia but Russia is a food and fuel exporte…

Sanctions are a "one time weapon" I fear, and many many countries are now including "what if we or someone we trade with gets sanctioned by the US" as part of their contingency planning.

I agree. It only really works in practice against small and globally insignificant countries that can realistically be cut off.

It's starting to look like the US majorly blundered with Russian sanctions, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/21/world/europe/ukraine-russ...

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#148

Post by walleeee »

idiotsecant wrote: post #102
walleeee wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Might we see the nation-state get replaced by a web of competing mercenaries, each of which effectively serves as a protection racket for their customers? How do you envision the deprecation of the nuclear-armed nation state unfolding? The USSR had a unipolar world outside to stabilize and manage its disintegration. How is this accomplished in a multipolar context, with tensions inflamed by intensifying scarcity, c…

there's no reason that things need to unfold such that a nuclear armed state exists one day and then doesn't the next. It could easily evolve from regulatory capture, increased influence of large corporations in governance, capture of public discourse by corporate sponsored narratives, and eventual de-facto private control of government. You'd end up with a nation with a nuclear force exists on paper but in fact the…

Which condition do you figure is the weakest link?

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#149

Post by ajuc »

codefreeordie wrote: post #144
ajuc wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nah. EU is "the west" too, and it's more people than US. And maternity leaves here are around 6-12 months. Population still decreases. Significant part of EU was under communism and had baby booms then despite abysmal pay and much WORSE standards of living then than now. Now their populations go down despite the face they are much wealthier and well off. I live in Poland. There's no comparison, when I look at photos…

Go back and read Adam Smith. The thing we don't appreciate today is that having more children used to be an investment -- not just in the idea of family, but literally an investment, as kids would grow up enough to start producing more resources than they cost pretty quickly, and were a net contributor to the family. Nowadays, having kids is wonderful and great and fulfilling and life-changing and all those things --…

That's before WW2 maybe. I'm talking about 80s vs now.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#150

Post by Engineering-MD »

divided wrote: post #90
bombcar wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The modern Westphalian nation-state may just be an accident of history, eventually replaced by other mechanisms. Arguably it already has begun; tech monopolies are starting to provide "government-like" rules and enforcement.

It is a stretch to call enforcing terms of service “government-like” rules and enforcement. This is like calling a restaurant hanging up a “no shirt, no shoes, no service” sign the same. And thus far I haven’t seen them issue fines or imprisonment over breaking their rules.

It’s a continuum though. The restaurant example is limited scope and limited enforcement. Compare it instead to a school/university which does enforce code of conducts etc and suspends students. Similar with housing organisations.
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