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The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

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Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#91

Post by FredPret »

bwb wrote: post #63
andrewclunn wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and abided by the previous commitment to exit Afghanistan. Ummm, what? Biden moved the date for withdrawal back, to make it coincide with a 9/11 anniversary. Then, seeing that the US would just arbitrarily change treaties, the Taliban launched an assault and reconquered the country. I get that historical revisionism is popular with political partisans, but usually you wait until goldfish have forgotten the details…

Just going to chime in with a non political fact: the withdrawal treaty was done by the previous administration, the planning by the military. It was always going to be a shit show. Presidents are not all powerful gods who control things like the stock market, inflation, or pulling everyone out of a foreign country.

It’s surprising to see people’s willingness to attribute everything that happens to the president.

Trump: Stock market boom, Jobs boom, Covid, Police violence

Biden: Recession

The optimal Covid response will only be known a generation from now. The best government economic policy is something that has to play out over many years and has only a loose connection to broader economic performance. The cops are going to do what they’re going to do. Etc.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#92

Post by ParksNet »

Barrera wrote: post #53
giorgosts wrote: post #15

US-centric approach. How about if China decides to fill the power vacuum that the isolationist US leaves. How about if eg. COSCO buys out the port operators around the globe. How about if they decide to protect their shipping routes with their military so that they carry on with providing goods to the globe. Globalization is still in the best interests of China, even if the US decides to abandon it.

> How about if China decides to fill the power vacuum that the isolationist US leaves. Zeihan argues that this is impossible on demographic grounds. The after-effects of the One Child Policy and the mass migration from farms to cities ensures a lack of soldiers, a greying population, and economic/military decline. Throw in Xi's unprecedented cult of personality that prevents anyone reporting bad news as the icing on…

No post body was provided.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#93

Post by bombcar »

Barrera wrote: post #51
KaiserPro wrote: post #34

THe problem with this prediction is that there is an astronomical amount of money tied up in global trade. To stop that would be incredibly disruptive. Thats not to say it won't happen (history has plenty of examples. WWI is a recent one). However for the "end of shipping" to happen we need those vested interests to stop being interested in literal trillions of dollars worth of trade. I can see a few scenarios where…

The point Zeihan makes is that world trade as we know it a recent invention. It exists purely as a result of the US commitment to protect trade from piracy around the world. Prior to that, the system was one of isolated empires each protecting their own routes. As the US is largely self-sufficient in energy and will likely start becoming self-sufficient in a great many things, it needs the rest of the world less and…

And this already exists in parts of the world the US doesn't bother with and shippers avoid them.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#94

Post by next_xibalba »

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #75

I’ve been following Zeihan since his first book. I’m yet to find a credible counter argument to his theses. And he’s being proven right at an alarming pace this year. So far this year we’ve had: - A land war in Europe - Food insecurity in the developing world - Breakdown of supply chains and shipping routes - Nation states resorting to seizing each other’s ships (see Greece-Iran issue recently). Everything that he ha…

How many of his predictions have failed? How many are timebound and falsifiable?

I am not specifically familiar with Zehain, but I am very well acquainted with figures who generate many predictions, have a small number become true, and then get treated as oracles for years before the truth is exposed: predicting the future in massive, chaotic systems is nearly impossible.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#95

Post by giantrobot »

Barrera wrote: post #53
giorgosts wrote: post #15

US-centric approach. How about if China decides to fill the power vacuum that the isolationist US leaves. How about if eg. COSCO buys out the port operators around the globe. How about if they decide to protect their shipping routes with their military so that they carry on with providing goods to the globe. Globalization is still in the best interests of China, even if the US decides to abandon it.

> How about if China decides to fill the power vacuum that the isolationist US leaves. Zeihan argues that this is impossible on demographic grounds. The after-effects of the One Child Policy and the mass migration from farms to cities ensures a lack of soldiers, a greying population, and economic/military decline. Throw in Xi's unprecedented cult of personality that prevents anyone reporting bad news as the icing on…

Yeah he also predicted China and Germany were going to collapse a decade ago. He makes a lot of strong claims but does not show his work. So he's about as accurate as astrology, when he's right he's not necessarily right because of any great internal understanding.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#96

Post by tenpies »

eruleman wrote: post #22
giorgosts wrote: post #15

US-centric approach. How about if China decides to fill the power vacuum that the isolationist US leaves. How about if eg. COSCO buys out the port operators around the globe. How about if they decide to protect their shipping routes with their military so that they carry on with providing goods to the globe. Globalization is still in the best interests of China, even if the US decides to abandon it.

China's navy can't go further than 1,000 miles from the shore. They can't protect shipping anywhere outside of their coast.

1,000 miles from the nearest naval base.

The Chinese base in Djibouti for example, is larger than the US base there.

What the US misses is that China doesn't necessarily want a fleet of expensive (and very vulnerable) carriers floating around. It would much rather have islands and coastal bases around important choke points. Sure, the price you pay is force projection, but the benefit is that it's a much more sustainable military.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#97

Post by baxtr »

dfadsadsf wrote: post #86
baxtr wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The vast majority of major countries with the exception of the US and Mexico have passed a point of no return demographically Where is the data to back this statement up? Sub-Sahara African countries have been growing by 2.5% over the last decades. Just one example. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW?locations=Z...

Sub Saharan African countries have population but not economy to be anything other than minor regional players. At this point it is unlikely they will be able to become industrialized and move to mid income bracket. Emigration from Africa is likely to become huge destabilizing factor in richer countries with declining population. Similar to current Hispanic majority in California, African majority population is likel…

This is assuming that emigration of a poor uneducated population will not result in a prospering economy.

At the very least, this hypothesis cannot be confirmed by the history of the United States, and, as a matter of fact by the prison islanders of Australia.

German population was considered to be shrinking for a long time, but in fact it keeps growing due to immigration.

Is it easy to integrate people? No. Will Europe collapse? No. Will it change? Yes. Will it continue to thrive? Most probably.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#98

Post by Moru »

pmontra wrote: post #38
BatFastard wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would imagine that this would first manifest itself in smaller countries. For example Mali employs the Wagner group out of Russia as a supplement for its Army. And I believe they are used by other countries as well. I don't see nuclear-armed nations using private companies, but possibly being the source of troops and technology. Really I don't see U.S. citizens joining mercenary groups, quality of life is too good.…

> I don't see nuclear-armed nations using private companies Russia is using Wagner Group in Ukraine. Does that count as a private company?

USA are pretty good at using private firms for the contract work outside of their borders.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#99

Post by andrewclunn »

macintux wrote: post #58
andrewclunn wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and abided by the previous commitment to exit Afghanistan. Ummm, what? Biden moved the date for withdrawal back, to make it coincide with a 9/11 anniversary. Then, seeing that the US would just arbitrarily change treaties, the Taliban launched an assault and reconquered the country. I get that historical revisionism is popular with political partisans, but usually you wait until goldfish have forgotten the details…

“Biden made the Taliban conquer Afghanistan” is as believable as “Biden made Putin invade Ukraine”.

Would you believe that the US policy of continually expanding NATO, combined with a military coup of the democratically elected Ukrainian government in 2014 are more to blame for Putin attacking Ukraine? I wouldn't blame Biden. I'd blame Clinton, Bush, and Obama. But hey, you weren't actually asking to be informed about anything that wasn't CIA approved corporate news talking points. You just wanted a pithy straw man joke. (Side Note - Burning karma to put some truth where people might see it is the only good use for the stuff.)

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#100

Post by baxtr »

ParksNet wrote: post #76
baxtr wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The vast majority of major countries with the exception of the US and Mexico have passed a point of no return demographically Where is the data to back this statement up? Sub-Sahara African countries have been growing by 2.5% over the last decades. Just one example. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW?locations=Z...

Sub-Saharan Africa is irrelevant, economically. Majority of the population engages in subsistence-level agriculture, or resource extraction for foreign companies. IQ Is measured at an average of 70 or lower: https://www.worlddata.info/iq-by-country.php (partly due to inadequate nutrition and opportunities). Corruption and poverty is widespread, and population expansion is directly tied to environmental degradation. T…

You are ignoring that people move. If there is a money gradient, people will follow it.

The big challenge is to integrate these people such that major economies stay stable.

It’s difficult yet manageable.

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