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Lead poisoning probably did not cause the downfall of the Roman Empire

talesoftimesforgotten.com

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Re: Lead poisoning probably did not cause the downfall of the Roman Empire

#81

Post by joe_the_user »

londons_explore wrote: post #73

Here is a counter-point[1] which finds high levels of lead toxicity in regular citizens. While this article seems to mostly be reasoning based on a literature review, the counterpoint uses analysis of roman skeletons. [1]: https://www.chemistryworld.com/news/londinium-romans-blood-l...

Your article seems reasonably persuasive. The thing about the OP is that it's about what the Roman knew - but just any sort of pre-scientific knowledge of poisons tends to neglect questions around long term exposure.

Re: Lead poisoning probably did not cause the downfall of the Roman Empire

#82

Post by [deleted] »

wozer wrote: post #55
londons_explore wrote: post #35

This article argues against the fall of the roman empire being caused by severe lead poisoning. I would argue that it was more likely caused by widespread minor lead poisoning. If everyone is more forgetful and learns slower, then that isn't something that will be written in history books - the people themselves will just consider that 'normal'. Yet an empire of forgetful and slow-learning people won't be efficient.…

This sounds a bit familiar...

[deleted]

Re: Lead poisoning probably did not cause the downfall of the Roman Empire

#83

Post by AshamedCaptain »

Ekaros wrote: post #15

So often any of these single causal theories forget to look at timespan. Which was either decades or centuries... If system survived previously with mostly same things in place there is really no reason why such thing as lead pipes would be the cause of downfall part. By any reasonable conclusion the culprit in such case should be some disruptive innovation. In the end gradual natural degradation of system is much mo…

> So often any of these single causal theories forget to look at timespan. Which was either decades or centuries...

I don't think anyone is (was?) suggesting that someone replaced the pipes overnight and they were all dead the next morning, but rather that it was an extremely gradual process that after centuries of extending its implantation managed to reduce cognitive capabilities by a couple points, etc.

The simple counterargument "lead use didn't increase" manages to kill such a theory, though.

Re: Lead poisoning probably did not cause the downfall of the Roman Empire

#84

Post by hef19898 »

freemint wrote: post #78
hef19898 wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As one of the greatest history channels on Youtube once said: "History isn't hapoening in a vaccuum". And they are right.

The first moon orbiting of a human happened in a vacuum. I hope more history happens in a vacuum.

Not all vacuums are created equal it seems! Love your comment so!

Re: Lead poisoning probably did not cause the downfall of the Roman Empire

#85

Post by 5e92cb50239222b »

dukeofdoom wrote: post #48
InCityDreams wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Based on what/ divided how? Purchasing a tent, utensils, backpack etc ie starting from scratch, or assuming everything already paid for and just 'real costs' ie food, tent-place (ground rent?)? Decathlon.fr or .co.uk prices can be pretty cheap, but I'm not sure where the costs start.

Based on Canadian Prices, a working guy would spend. And not even going very far from home. Gas $100 Beer $50 Cigs $15 Ontario Park Campsite $59/night x 2 = $120 Firewood 2 x $15 = $30 Some basic sausages and food = $50 Total $375 Min Wage $15/hour. Hours of work = 25 hours Actually it would take more than 25 hours, because most likely that person does not live with Grandma and has shelter / food expenses. So might n…

For someone from the other side of the planet (former USSR), this list feels very weird. I can't imagine paying for a campsite (nobody here does, you just go wherever you want and take whatever place is available), or firewood (you can always find a dry tree trunk somewhere along the road, or there's a friend of a friend who will bring some from his own house).

So although our minimum wages are absolutely atrocious by your standards (officially it's around $100 per month IIRC, but I haven't heard of anybody making below $200), half of this list doesn't apply, and the other half is cheaper by 5-20 times (a pack of cigs is ~$1 if I'm not mistaken, a liter of gasoline around 50 cents, etc). Considering all of this, we've been chugging along just fine… or not, actually. Braces yourselves, I guess.

Re: Lead poisoning probably did not cause the downfall of the Roman Empire

#86

Post by em-bee »

dukeofdoom wrote: post #48
InCityDreams wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Based on what/ divided how? Purchasing a tent, utensils, backpack etc ie starting from scratch, or assuming everything already paid for and just 'real costs' ie food, tent-place (ground rent?)? Decathlon.fr or .co.uk prices can be pretty cheap, but I'm not sure where the costs start.

Based on Canadian Prices, a working guy would spend. And not even going very far from home. Gas $100 Beer $50 Cigs $15 Ontario Park Campsite $59/night x 2 = $120 Firewood 2 x $15 = $30 Some basic sausages and food = $50 Total $375 Min Wage $15/hour. Hours of work = 25 hours Actually it would take more than 25 hours, because most likely that person does not live with Grandma and has shelter / food expenses. So might n…

Ontario Park Campsite $59/night x 2 = $120

i have been to places where hotels are cheaper than that.

Re: Lead poisoning probably did not cause the downfall of the Roman Empire

#87

Post by swatcoder »

namaria wrote: post #79
Ekaros wrote: post #15

So often any of these single causal theories forget to look at timespan. Which was either decades or centuries... If system survived previously with mostly same things in place there is really no reason why such thing as lead pipes would be the cause of downfall part. By any reasonable conclusion the culprit in such case should be some disruptive innovation. In the end gradual natural degradation of system is much mo…

This line of publishing, much like nutritional science, is great for scientists. You can fudge data into flip flopping conclusions every couple of years. Infinite papers = tenure.

If you could earnestly profile even a few scientists who have personally flip-flopped their way to tenure like that, you'd surely have a red carpet welcome across a thousand podcasts and alt-media outlets

Heck, maybe you could even get tenure somewhere if you happened to have academic creds of your own.

Surely someone's done it? Are you familiar with any such profiles that you could share?

Re: Lead poisoning probably did not cause the downfall of the Roman Empire

#88

Post by eastbound »

johnwalkr wrote: post #61
dukeofdoom wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can see that happening. Thinking about Canada. The other day I calculated it would take 25 hours of work for the minimum wage worker to afford a weekend camping. And I think that's a pretty good indication we're pretty close collapse. Workers not being paid enough, and out of control inflation is how the soviet system collapsed.

That’s actually a really interesting metric. Cost of living has really shot up in Canada while wages have stagnated. Everyone knows that housing has increased dramatically. This leads to less disposable income obviously. I’m 40 and grew up in Edmonton. Once or twice a year, as a kid and into my late 20s, my family and and/or I did a hotel type vacation in Banff or Jasper once a year, which seemed expensive at the tim…

I’ll take the devil’s position: Your are not owed by nature a footprint on the ground, or a weekend camping.

Manille (Manila? Capital of Philippines) has 43079 inhabitants per square kilometer (23sqm per person, including agriculture), China tries to do the same.

The key is nature doesn’t owe you democracy, and governments neither. We can store many people vertically if we remove their personality. What I mean is poverty doesn’t make the system itself collapse, it can actually survive pretty far, even thrive while everyone is expunged.

After all, USSR only collapsed in 1991, 69 years after Stalin took power, after killing probably 1/4 of its population in gulags.

Re: Lead poisoning probably did not cause the downfall of the Roman Empire

#89

Post by paganel »

dralley wrote: post #7
comrh wrote: post #3

One thing I really got out of the History of Rome podcast by Mike Duncan is if anyone tells you there was ONE cause of the fall of Rome, they're full of crap.

And if you really want to boil it down to a single reason, the best candidate would be "becoming militarily dependent on hired mercenaries and then not paying them" rather than something more interesting

It's also how the Byzantine Empire went into its downwards trajectory starting with the late 1000s. In fact, it was a little more complicated, as the Empire had to resort to using mercenaries because its theme system had been basically broken into pieces by the Empire oligarchy and by the Church, so Byzantium having to resort to mercenaries in order to defend itself was mostly, by that time, a consequence of said oligarchy and Byzantine Church doing their thing against the small Byzantine tax-payers.

And before someone starts saying that the Roman Empire lived "through" the Byzantine Empire all the way to 1453 I have to say that from my point of view that is only valid until the late 6th-early 7th century, by the end of Heraclius's [1] reign the Byzantine Empire was a thing totally different compared to the Roman Empire.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heraclius

Re: Lead poisoning probably did not cause the downfall of the Roman Empire

#90

Post by pvg »

Ekaros wrote: post #15

So often any of these single causal theories forget to look at timespan. Which was either decades or centuries... If system survived previously with mostly same things in place there is really no reason why such thing as lead pipes would be the cause of downfall part. By any reasonable conclusion the culprit in such case should be some disruptive innovation. In the end gradual natural degradation of system is much mo…

This is more or less how more recent scholarship looks at complicated, long-term multi-modal sort of events and changes. Fate of Rome is a fairly recent book that examines things like disease and climate change, for instance:

https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691166834/th...

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