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A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

economist.com

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Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#31

Post by TrispusAttucks »

sremani wrote: post #20
alliao wrote: post #11

let's say if the shortfall makes up 30% of supply.. surely those 70% other farmers would just need to raise by 140% or so to FULLY make up the difference? everyone pitch in a little, shouldn't be THAT big of a deal surely....

that would be easy if there was an AWS for Food! Here is the reality, not only the grains but the inputs like fertilizers etc are sky-rocketing. Every body wants to piss of Fossil Fuels with out even understanding how foundational they are to Modern Civilization (I welcome the downvotes but I will not stop advocating). Say, with me, N P K - Nitrogen Phosphorous Pottasium. Belarus is a major Potash supplier, Natural g…

I upvote you.

Everyone shits on fossil fuels with no idea how crucial they are. No fossil fuels. No modern society. Turn it off and death will follow.

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#32

Post by avgcorrection »

nine_k wrote: post #15
planetsprite wrote: post #13

The agricultural revolution and its consequences have been a disaster for the human race.

Do you mean that remaining primitive hunters-gatherers, as now observed in certain places near Amazon river, would be more of a success?

Yes. Thousands of years of class societies haven’t been great.

But the revolution happened out of sheer necessity, not out of choice. Hunter-gatherer societies aren’t sustainable past a certain threshold of population density.

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#33

Post by avgcorrection »

bigodbiel wrote: post #22
planetsprite wrote: post #13

The agricultural revolution and its consequences have been a disaster for the human race.

Our brains were certainly larger on an individual level, but those individuals could never surpass a few tens of thousands, spread globally, the farther the better!

We built human civilization so that we could Show HN the app that we built. Take that, hunter-gatherers.

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#34

Post by ihm »

nine_k wrote: post #15
planetsprite wrote: post #13

The agricultural revolution and its consequences have been a disaster for the human race.

Do you mean that remaining primitive hunters-gatherers, as now observed in certain places near Amazon river, would be more of a success?

I don't support trying to turn back the clock, but modern day hunter gatherers should not be thought of as a reliable picture of past hunter-gatherers.

For one, they mostly inhabit some of the lowest quality land since the best land has been taken by industrial society. Past hunter-gatherers would have had their pick of land.

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#35

Post by panzagl »

planetsprite wrote: post #18
nine_k wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you mean that remaining primitive hunters-gatherers, as now observed in certain places near Amazon river, would be more of a success?

yes according to modern media sentiment. Never once have I watched a movie that argued for the antithesis of the "Avatar" respect nature mantra. I mean even without the warmongering factories are never portrayed in a positive light unless they're Willy Wonka's.

I think you need to rewatch/reread Willie Wonka...

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#36

Post by monkeybutton »

alliao wrote: post #11

let's say if the shortfall makes up 30% of supply.. surely those 70% other farmers would just need to raise by 140% or so to FULLY make up the difference? everyone pitch in a little, shouldn't be THAT big of a deal surely....

Can't tell if this is a joke or not. One would think that if a farmer could raise output (and thus revenue) by 140% on short demand, they would have already done so years ago?

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#37

Post by jka »

ggm wrote: post #5

I would be interested in an analysis at scale of artifacts, components, foodstuffs, industrial inputs, which have similar impact to the loss of this source of wheat, against a worldwide wheat market. If (eg) Argentina Bolivia and Chile were unable to supply Lithium, how long would it take the world to ramp up to using Australian sources, and what would it do to the supply chain? Or, if the soybean crop failed in one…

Do you mean something like a "causal loop diagram" as mentioned in this article? https://www.transentis.com/understanding-the-beer-game/en/

(albeit at a larger scale and with more products and filter-by-country)

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#38

Post by seunosewa »

monkeybutton wrote: post #36
alliao wrote: post #11

let's say if the shortfall makes up 30% of supply.. surely those 70% other farmers would just need to raise by 140% or so to FULLY make up the difference? everyone pitch in a little, shouldn't be THAT big of a deal surely....

Can't tell if this is a joke or not. One would think that if a farmer could raise output (and thus revenue) by 140% on short demand, they would have already done so years ago?

They can increase wheat production by growing less of other crops. Rationale: wheat is more profitable because of its scarcity.

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#40

Post by goodcanadian »

alliao wrote: post #11

let's say if the shortfall makes up 30% of supply.. surely those 70% other farmers would just need to raise by 140% or so to FULLY make up the difference? everyone pitch in a little, shouldn't be THAT big of a deal surely....

My father is a (retired) farmer. Wheat is a pretty reliable crop that pays for itself, but you don't really make money on it. So, you grow some wheat, and you grow other stuff, such as canola, in order to get paid. With the elevated prices, a bit more wheat may have been planted this year, but you have to remember that the prices of the inputs have gone up as well, particularly fertilizer and fuel. Moreover, any land used to grow wheat is not growing something else. In the end, it doesn't make a lot of economic sense to increase wheat production when you can use the land and resources for higher value crops.
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